Your Tax Refund Will Likely Be Smaller Than Promised

Heading into tax season, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has been telling Americans that they can expect significantly larger tax returns this season thanks to some recent changes to the tax code. However, that might not be the case, after all.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who also serves as the acting director of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), has been sharing that many Americans should expect “gigantic” and “very large” refunds this tax season. But when you file your taxes, you might find that your refund doesn't exactly live up to those expectations.

Promises of 'Gigantic' Refunds

Heading into tax season, Republicans on the House Committee on Ways and Means have claimed that because of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, “average refunds [are] projected to rise by $1,000 or more this year.”

Acting IRS director Bessent described the expected refunds as “gigantic” and “very large” on separate occasions, claiming that Americans could see “$1,000, $2,000 refunds” on average.

“The bill was passed in July, working Americans didn’t change their withholding, so they’re going to be getting very large refunds in the first quarter,” Bessent said earlier this year. “So I think we’re going to see $100-$150 billion of refunds, which could be between $1,000, $2,000 per household. Then, they’ll change their withholding, and they’ll get a real increase in their wages.”

The White House has also cited recent research from the financial services firm Piper Sandler indicating that the refund check could increase by $1,000 compared to the 2025 filing season.

While this understandably came as exciting news to many Americans, data does not seem to align with these promises.

Smaller Refunds Than Promised

Despite the promises of refunds increasing by $1,000 compared to the 2025 filing season, the latest information suggests that this is not the case at all.

According to data compiled by the Center for American Progress (CAP), the average tax refund for Americans will only increase by only $331 to $748, and most Americans who make less than $100,000 a year won't see an increased tax refund at all.

"Like the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) in general, the vast majority of refund dollars will go to high-income Americans. Fewer than half of American taxpayers making less than $100,000 will receive an increased tax refund this year, and their refund check will only be $208 larger than previously. Meanwhile, nearly all Americans making more than $200,000 will see an increased refund, and theirs will average over $2,000 more than last year," the CAB writes.

This is reflected in the early data directly from the IRS, as well. So far, the IRS reports that tax refunds have increased by only $225 on average, or about 11 percent relative to this time last year.

So if you were among those banking on a significantly larger tax refund this year compared to previous years, it's probably best to adjust your expectations a little bit before you file your taxes. Chances are, you might be a bit disappointed by the final number.