Beterbiev vs Bivol 2 predictions: Who wins the rematch?

Will Artur Beterbiev have his hand raised again, or can Dmitry Bivol even the score on Saturday?

Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol meet again on Saturday, four months after a razor-thin Beterbiev win in their first fight, and once again for the undisputed light heavyweight championship of the world.

That Beterbiev (21-0, 20 KO) and Bivol (23-1, 12 KO) are the two best 175 lb boxers in the world is not really up for debate, but there are still many who believe Bivol won the first fight, and many, too, who believe the judges got it right with Beterbiev.

Will we see a repeat result from Beterbiev, or can Bivol even the score? Our staffers give their thoughts and predictions.

Scott Christ

I think we see something nearly identical to the first fight. These guys are 40 and 34, they fight the way they fight, I don’t think we see Bivol up his output considerably — and if we do, it’s more and clearer openings for Beterbiev. And I don’t think Beterbiev is going to turn back the clock five years (which is functionally more on that somewhat rickety body of his) and become the vicious hunter of his true peak years.

They also have a great and earned respect for one another. Beterbiev knows what Bivol can do and how good he is, and vice versa. We didn’t see many risks taken the first time around. We won’t see many this time, either.

For all the hype, the first fight was somewhat tepid in terms of action, but it was very, very high-level, and that’s what had people glued to the screen last October and what has them excited here in February. I don’t think anyone reasonable is expecting a dramatic, momentum-swinging trade of thunderous shots or a “Fight of the Year.” We expect to see two excellent boxers ply their trade. It’s a safe bet to deliver.

Since I think it will be similar to the first fight, that also means I think it can once again go either way. That fight could easily have gone to Bivol last year. It could once again look just the same and go to Beterbiev. Now, if you’re more of a boxing conspiracy person than I am — which in this world is kinda fair, because boxing very much lends itself to that beyond the fights and fighters themselves — then the pick is Bivol to force a third lucrative encounter. And I think I’m leaning that way. But there will be little to split them, just like before. Bivol SD-12

Wil Esco

The first time around I was of the mindset that while I do love me some Artur Beterbiev, I just felt that he had accumulated too many injuries at his ripe old age to be effective against a boxer like Dmitry Bivol who doesn’t mind plinking away at range to pile up the points. In the ring, however, Beterbiev’s physical condition was much better than I anticipated and he proved able to apply enough consistent pressure combined with power to make things rough on Bivol.

Bivol has spent a lot of time in the pre-fight build up saying that he knows he has to do more and increase his output for the duration of the fight to make things clear in his favor, but I think Bivol just fights the way he fights and I don’t really see him pouring on the activity more than he did the first time around, as that will only create more exchange opportunities where Beterbiev carries the advantage. As for Beterbiev, I do think there soon comes a time where he gets old overnight and shows it in the ring, but given the fact that he’s supposedly in better physical shape than he was for the first fight, maybe it won’t be the fight this weekend.

Ultimately, I think Beterbiev vs Bivol 2 looks a lot like the first fight and because of that I think Beterbiev will have the slight edge as the aggressor, which will likely impress the judges more. Bivol really needs to keep from getting pushed back to the ropes but if Beterbiev’s ailing knee is better than it was before I don’t see Bivol managing to consistently keep this fight at center ring. I’m taking Beterbiev to repeat with a majority decision. Beterbiev MD-12

Patrick Stumberg

Even as a well-documented admirer of Artur Beterbiev and his capacity for extraordinary violence, I just don’t believe he beat Dmitry Bivol the first time around. Watching it yesterday evening with fresh eyes, I had Bivol winning 115-113 (Rounds 1-5, 8, and 9) while giving Beterbiev three of four swing rounds. While Beterbiev’s work rate may have caught the eye, especially with Bivol’s tendency to pick his spots after long stretches of inactivity, Bivol’s impeccable defense caught the vast majority of the incoming shots and his high-speed barrages were by far the cleanest blows of the fight.

When trying to break down a rematch of an ultra-close bout, my main criteria is “which fighter will have an easier time making the necessary adjustments.” For me, that’s Bivol; Beterbiev never did manage to figure out Bivol’s guard or consistently pin him to the ropes, and now that Bivol’s had a taste of what 12 rounds with The Beef will do to the body, his pace management should improve accordingly. Plus, I just don’t think a 40-year-old Beterbiev has it in him to produce the sort of output and nonstop pressure it would take to hunt Bivol down. Another matador performance nets Bivol the victory. Bivol UD-12

John Hansen

My live scoring for the first matchup came in as a draw, and I could see the argument to shade it a round or two either man’s way. Personally, I found it more reasonable to lean Bivol’s way, but I didn’t hate a result in either direction.

I like Bivol for the rematch for a few reasons. First, while both men did an amazing job of reacting and adjusting to each other, I felt like Bivol was leading the dance more in every sense but front foot attacking. Beterbiev would go down a round or two on my scorecard, adjust enough to edge a few rounds of his own, and then Bivol would change things slightly and nick a few more rounds. Both of them are brilliantly talented, but Bivol is more the technician, and I think that’s a meaningful advantage in a rematch.

The margin between these two guys was so, so slim. Bivol finding the slightest extra something is enough to swing the outcome. On top of that, Beterbiev is 40 years old, and we may have seen the absolute best of him last time out. He’s also had a history of injury, and this is the first time he’s fought on such a quick turnaround in just under a decade. Meanwhile, Bivol went back-to-back-to-back against Isaac Chilemba, Jean Pascal, and Joe Smith Jr with shorter turnarounds than the gap between Beterbiev fights.

Whatever Beterbiev could summon in October was only just enough to take two of the three cards. If he’s lost even a fraction of a step, if he’s gotten even the littlest bit Boxing Old, if he’s nursing even the slightest extra ache or pain — and even if he isn’t, if Bivol learned more strategically from the first fight than Beterbiev did; any or all of the above makes it a Bivol victory. Bivol UD-12