UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards staff picks and predictions

Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards card in San Antonio.

The Bloody Elbow staff has made its predictions for UFC San Antonio, and most of us are siding with Rafael dos Anjos to prevail in his pivotal welterweight main event against Leon Edwards. As for the co-main event, it’s a majority going with Aleksei Oleinik over Walt Harris. No one likes Greg Hardy.... and also we think Juan Adams is going to beat him.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Rafael dos Anjos vs. Leon Edwards

Mookie Alexander: This is such a tough fight to call because Edwards has the physical advantages and his game has become so well-rounded that he might be able to outpoint dos Anjos from start to finish. But Edwards is also not a particularly dangerous finisher and RDA may trouble Leon by pressuring him. We’ve seen how often that RDA doesn’t fight well when pressured, but he’s a different beast when he dictates the terms of where the fight takes place and the pace he’s set. Edwards’ wrestling might be the biggest x-factor given RDA’s history… but recent history shows that he just beat Kevin Lee, in theory a terrible stylistic matchup. I think RDA lands the bigger strikes and will give Edwards a hard time on the ground with well-timed takedowns and stifling top control. If Edwards can successfully keep RDA at arm’s length on the feet and successfully wrestle him? Look out. Love this fight so much. Rafael dos Anjos by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: The basics make me feel like RDA should have this. His ability to put a pace on people and his amazing durability should give him an edge round to round. But... I can’t help getting the feeling that Edwards’ size, speed, and reach are going to tilt that balance just barely in his favor. Both men can wrestle, both can grapple, but Edwards has really only ever been beat by guys big enough to really hold him down and control him. If he can stay elusive standing and mix it up with RDA on the ground, I think Edwards can take this one. Leon Edwards by decision.

Victor Rodriguez: I’m kinda with Zane on this one (blech), but I find that dos Anjos is still better at creating and closing space and is a good enough grappler to test Edwards. That and the threat of level changes to strikes as well as a very good gas tank should serve Rafael well, although Leon’s a good wrestler with snappy striking and very good fight IQ. I just feel that Leon’s development as a fighter might not be where it needs to be right now. If these two fought two years from now, I’d pick Edwards without any hesitation, but not today. Rafael dos Anjos by decision.

Staff picking RDA: Ed, Phil, Mookie, Tim, Stephie, Nick, Victor
Staff picking Edwards: Dayne, Zane

Aleksei Oleinik vs. Walt Harris

Mookie Alexander: Harris is the better athlete who hits hard and isn’t ancient. This is heavyweight though, so I can easily see Harris flooring Oleinik and getting Ezekiel choked seconds later. Why the hell not? Aleksei Oleinik by submission, round 1.

Phil Mackenzie: Harris has trained with Oleinik before (as Overeem had) and he’s just not a million years old. Sure, Werdum took Harris down easily, but at some point Olenik’s age really has to start catching up to him against moderately functional athletes. Walt Harris by TKO, round 2.

Zane Simon: If Harris can stick Oleinik standing and not get caught up in the clinch, then yeah, he probably KO’s the Russo-Ukranian without too much trouble. But, Oleinik pressures a lot and swings wild a lot. And doing that often suckers less experienced fighters to look for safety valves and chances to slow him down. Things like clinching up with him and taking him down... and getting subbed. Aleksei Oleinik via Submission, Round 1.

Victor Rodriguez: Harris can wrestle and he’s got wild strength. Even though Oleinik has some of the best and sneakiest grappling in the division, I’m not sure how he cracks that nut without his chin getting cracked first. I’ll take a flyer on this and go with the dumb and easy pick. Walt Harris by TKO.

Staff picking Oleinik: Ed, Mookie, Tim, Dayne, Stephie, Zane, Nick
Staff picking Harris: Phil, Victor

Greg Hardy vs. Juan Adams

Zane Simon: Juan Adams throws mostly arm punches, and is too upright for my comfort. Sooner or later he’ll get clubbed. Hardy could be the one to do it. But, the thing is, Adams throws LOTS of arm punches. Like an absurd amount and he throws them every round. And he’s huge. If he can survive early, my guess is he wears Hardy out. Juan Adams via TKO, round 3.

Mookie Alexander: Yeah. Juan Adams by TKO, round 1.

Victor Rodriguez: Hey, take a gander at them open workouts. Yeah, kinda rough. Not that we should put too much stock into them, mind you, it just shows that Hardy doesn’t seem like he’s got much of a plane other than to explode with punches and hope he knocks Adams out. Adams’ only pro loss was to a very good wrestler in a very bad fight. He should be able to handle Hardy’s wild striking, take him down and make him look worse than Crowder did. Adams claims he’s been prioritizing cardio, which even at his worst would still be enough to outlast Hardy and finally put this moronic experiment to bed. Juan Adams by TKO.

Staff picking Hardy:
Staff picking Adams: Ed, Phil, Mookie, Tim, Dayne, Stephie, Zane, Nick, Victor

James Vick vs. Dan Hooker

Mookie Alexander: Serious FOTN potential here. Vick was more competitive with Paul Felder than I think people may have remembered, and he’s a sneaky threat to pull off a submission in an instant. He has good power and should be able to fare well in a range kickboxing match against Hooker, but way too often does Vick fall apart when he’s being pressured. Hooker also has a Ricardo Lamas type of abrupt violence to his game that makes him a threat to stop anyone at any point in time (Edson Barboza aside). I see Vick starting quickly but Hooker pulling away late. Dan Hooker by unanimous decision.

Phil Mackenzie: This one is interesting- Hooker has struggled with people who fight him from a distance, and Vick has struggled with people who pressure him into the cage. The question becomes which guy is likely to exploit the other more effectively, and sadly I think the answer is Vick. He’s been able to run range kickboxing gameplans against Trinaldo and Lazaro, and Hooker has conversely tended to look a bit lost when asked to track people down. Hooker is more violent and dynamic, and Vick isn’t a defensive marvel, so there’s a solid chance that Hooker wallops him in a careless exchange. James Vick by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: My guess is this fight comes down to the dynamics of momentum. Vick likes to start fast, throwing big, powerful, creative strikes from distance early in fights. But, as time goes on, if his opponents don’t walk into a shot that seriously hurts them or puts them away he also tends to just kinda take his foot off the gas and try not to get himself hurt. The latter half of his fights has been notably marked by lots of backpedaling and not a lot of damage. Conversely, Hooker almost always seems to start slow, pick up the timing of his opponents, and deliver accurate counters as the fight goes on. I do feel like he’s gotten better at tracking people down, but his fight with Barboza was marked by some really terrible early game planning. I don’t think Vick has the same ability to break Hooker down early. So if Hooker can avoid getting KO’d he’ll likely be a lot more ready to pressure late when Vick is looking to coast out the fight. It’s a close run thing but I’ll take Dan Hooker via KO, round 3.

Victor Rodriguez: Vick’s been both figured out and had his chin tested, and that’s a problem. We saw Gaethje pressure him with forward movement and bait him into dropping his defense to get blasted. We saw Felder fight smart and fend him off. I have no doubt Hooker could also find that chin and put a hurting on him. Hooker’s got his problems as well, but if the only big loss you’ve had recently was elite striker Edson Barboza, Vick’s limited boxing game won’t be some impossible puzzle to solve. Dan Hooker by TKO.

Staff picking Vick: Phil, Tim
Staff picking Hooker: Ed, Mookie, Dayne, Stephie, Zane, Nick, Victor

Alexander Hernandez vs. Francisco Trinaldo

Mookie Alexander: Secondary Tibau has got to start fighting like an old dude, right? I don’t know if Hernandez will be overly cautious after his aggressive style worked against him vs. Donald Cerrone, but his style should put him in position to just wear Trinaldo down as the fight progresses. Alexander Hernandez by unanimous decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Hernandez has gotten nothing but killers in his time in the UFC, and Trinaldo should be a tough out. Massuranduba is a big, crafty puncher and kicker, and Hernandez’ entries are enthusiastic, confident and frankly pretty dangerous. However, while Trinaldo’s cardio holds up surprisingly well in kickboxing bouts, he’s been drained in grappling matches, and he doesn’t have the kind of marching combinations that Cerrone used to chase down Hernandez’ retreat. If Hernandez can set up blitzes into the clinch without getting clobbered, he should be able to outlast the Brazilian down the stretch. As in the above pick, I’d like to be wrong, though. Alexander Hernandez by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Trinaldo’s power counter striking game could cause Hernandez a ton of trouble if he’s overconfident about his ability to just jump into the pocket and crack with the Brazilian without consequence. However, Trinaldo’s also struggled over his career with strong, aggressive fighters who can go after him with a good wrestling game. And that sound too much like Hernandez to me. Eventually, I expect this fight to be extremely competitive early, but if Hernandez can stay in Trinaldo’s face, put him on the fence and keep a high pace, I think he can take this fight over. Alexander Hernandez by Decision.

Victor Rodriguez: I hate picking against Trinaldo, because his career has been so much better than I ever expected it to be even after a somewhat unheralded arrival to the UFC from the Brazilian regionals. At this point, he’s already begun to fall from his prime, but still has what it takes to beat the breaks off any careless newcomer. Hernandez… isn’t that. He’s sharp and is still working on his skills, but also has what it takes to get ahead here. Trinaldo will be a very stiff test with great boxing, some good kicks, excellent cardio and really good top pressure, but Hernandez has speed and explosiveness to match that and can advance on the scorecards and win a decision. Alexander Hernandez by decision.

Staff picking Hernandez: Phil, Mookie, Tim, Stephie, Zane, Nick, Victor
Staff picking Trinaldo: Ed, Dayne

Andrei Arlovski vs. Ben Rothwell

Mookie Alexander: No. Ben Rothwell by split decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Remember when Arlovski used to have strengths and weaknesses? Now he is a guy. He’s OK at wrestling. He’s OK at kickboxing. He has OK durability. He can keep an OK pace. He has OK power. There appears to be something of Ben Rothwell left in Ben Rothwell, so Ben Rothwell by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Arlovski, just doesn’t seem like he’s doing much to take over a fight anymore. No matter who the opponent is, no matter where the fight goes, he’ll compete, but just not enough to win. I trust Rothwell to still be durable and active. So, Ben Rothwell by decision.

Victor Rodriguez: I can’t even pull myself to care. Arlovski by throwing more punches. Hope you like sweaty and hairy men hugging. Andrei Arlovski by decision.

Staff picking Arlovski: Victor
Staff picking Rothwell: Ed, Phil, Mookie, Tim, Dayne, Stephie, Zane
Staff picking draw: Nick

Alex Caceres vs. Steven Peterson

Phil Mackenzie: Normally to beat Caceres a fighter needs some kind of focused game, an area which they’re genuinely good at, and then he will consent to fight them there. Peterson... doesn’t really have that. Alex Caceres by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Peterson probably isn’t dangerous enough or deeply skilled enough in any one area of the fight to beat Caceres over 3 rounds. But he may just push him to the fence repeatedly and win a decision on aggression alone, I guess? Probably not, but it’s always hard to tell just how Caceres will show up. Alex Caceres by decision.

Staff picking Caceres: Ed, Mookie, Stephie, Nick, Zane, Victor
Staff picking Peterson: Tim, Dayne

Raquel Pennington vs. Irene Aldana

Phil Mackenzie: Aldana did not really have a good showing last time out. Technique for technique, this really should be a Pennington win, who can just box her up like Correia largely did before getting finished. However, I sort of feel like Pennington might be shot? Irene Aldana by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: If Pennington can be bigger, more durable, and a more competitive grappler than Bethe Correia, she should be able to beat Aldana--who seems too willing to let her opponents hang around and fight their way around her reach. But, there’s always a chance that Aldana’s game will finally really click and she’ll just stick Pennington on the end of long 1-2s while ‘Rocky’ plods after her with chasing footwork. I’ll pick Pennington, but it’s mostly just based on the feeling that Aldana is fighting down to less athletic competition. Raquel Pennington by decision.

Victor Rodriguez: I really have no idea. I guess it depends on which Pennington shows up. Aldana’s got the reach and technique advantage with striking, and she may be able to defend the takedowns. But that’s the problem, Pennington is past the point of fighting fighters that will let her just Homer Simpson her way through a fight to pull off a late win. I guess I’ll take Aldana here. Irene Aldana by decision.

Staff picking Pennington: Nick, Zane
Staff picking Aldana: Ed, Phil, Mookie, Tim, Dayne, Stephie, Victor

Sam Alvey vs. Klidson Abreu

Phil Mackenzie: Alvey also looks like he is on the tail end of his career- his durability is fading and he’s not picking up KOs any more, so it’s an open question as to whether moderately aggressive, moderately athletic fighters like Jim Crute can just overwhelm him now. Abreu could very well be that, but given how he repeatedly ran into the same counter right hand from Ankalaev over and over again, I can’t really bet on it. Sam Alvey by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Okay, a few too many of us are picking Alvey for me to be at all comfortable. If his reactions and/or durability is wavering, then his game doesn’t really have much functional offense to it and Abreu can absolutely beat him. On the flip side, Alvey has generally been hard to take down and if his opponent doesn’t offer a more technical boxing game or a kicking game, he’s still been a shockingly accurate counterpuncher. I picked Alvey on the Vivi, but seeing us all going with him here... I’ll take Abreu to just club him with something for a surprising win. Klidson Abreu via TKO, round 1.

Victor Rodriguez: I think Alvey’s countergame has been figured out as well. That means it’s a matter of whether or not Abreu knows to not get caught hanging out too long after he works his strikes. I can’t help but think Alvey will still somehow gut it out in a horrible slog. Sam Alvey by decision.

Staff picking Alvey: Ed, Mookie, Dayne, Stephie, Nick, Victor
Staff picking Abreu: Tim, Zane

Roxanne Modafferi vs. Jennifer Maia

Phil Mackenzie: Their prior encounter was marked by Maia pulling away late, and so I kind of feel that if that dynamic is taken away then it favours Roxy. Added to that is the fact that she’s improved her wrestling since then and Maia kind of... hasn’t? It’s a tough fight to pick, but Roxanne Modafferi by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: I’m concerned by the feeling that many of Modafferi’s strengths were nullified in their first meeting. Most notably, her clinch wrestling. That’s something that Modafferi has improved upon, but if Maia can still shut it down, then Modafferi will have to spend a lot of time dealing with Maia’s improved boxing game. The key point of success that Modafferi had in their first fight came from her reactive wrestling game in open space. If she leans on that skill again, I think she can force a lot of the kinds of grappling exchanges that she’s likely to win. If she can’t get those takedowns, things could get messy. Roxanne Modafferi by decision.

Victor Rodriguez: Maia’s one of my favorite fighters to watch, but I can’t pick against Roxy here. Her progression has been a joy to watch, and shutting down an arguably better kickboxer in Antonina Shevchenko is a big, big statement. It also leads me to believe she’ll do well here, as well as fending off Maia’s grappling and initiating takedowns and clinchwork of her own to really seal the deal. Roxanne Modafferi by decision.

Staff picking Modafferi: Ed, Mookie, Stephie, Nick, Zane, Victor
Staff picking Maia: Tim, Dayne

Ray Borg vs. Gabriel Silva

Phil Mackenzie: There is a dearth of tape on Silva, but what there is shows an aggressive, powerful wrestler who isn’t dissimilar to Borg himself. Despite a disappointing (and imo incorrect) loss in his last, and despite how Borg’s game seems like a poor fit for the division, I have to take him just for his experience in this kind of match. Ray Borg by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: What I’ve seen from Silva shows he has some solid power for a fighter his size, but... not a lot else that really impresses. Given that Borg won’t be working against a size disadvantage this time out, I think his wrestling is likely to be a lot more effective. Ray Borg via decision.

Victor Rodriguez: Maybe Borg will be a little less passive this time after getting shafted in his last fight against Casey Kenney. Ray Borg by submission.

Staff picking Borg: Phil, Ed, Mookie, Dayne, Nick, Zane, Victor
Staff picking Silva: Stephie

Mario Bautista vs. Jin Soo Son

Phil Mackenzie: Should be a lot of fun. Both are aggressive bangers, both fought men that they just weren’t ready for in their last fights, but Jin Soo Son acquitted himself way better against Yan than Bautista did against Sandhagen. Jin Soo Son by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: This is gonna be a banger. Bautista likes to throw a lot of volume and a lot of different combinations. Jin Soo Son is great at standing his ground and throwing punches to the face. My guess is that Son is just a little too unbreakable for Bautista, and his head hunting will pay off as the fight goes on. But, Bautista’s creativity might catch him out a lot early if he can stay elusive. Jin Soo Son via TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Bautista:
Staff picking Son: Ed, Mookie, Dayne, Stephie, Nick, Zane, Victor

Domingo Pilarte vs. Felipe Colares

Zane Simon: Colares doesn’t doesn’t seem very good. Domingo Pilarte via submission, round 1.

Victor Rodriguez: Colares has a nice record on paper, but Pilarte’s the more complete fighter of the two and has faced more adequate competition for being on this level. Domingo Pilarte by TKO.

Staff picking Pilarte: Ed, Mookie, Phil, Stephie, Nick, Zane, Victor
Staff picking Colares: Dayne