UFC 227: TJ-Garbrandt, DJ-Cejudo win probs & bets

After crunching the numbers, here are the win probabilities and possible bets for UFC 227 tonight in Los Angeles.

The win probabilities for UFC 227’s four qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind Dillashaw-Garbrandt and Johnson-Cejudo, see today’s earlier piece.

T.J. Dillashaw (60.5%) over Cody Garbrandt

Demetrious Johnson (70.1%) over Henry Cejudo

Renato Moicano (68.4%) over Cub Swanson

Brett Johns (59.5%) over Pedro Munhoz

Current Bankroll: $9,723.73

There’s only one bet on the night and it’s $194.47 on Brett Johns at +165 as of this writing (2:45pm PT).

Enjoy the glorious fights!

Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.

Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.