UFC 227: T.J. Dillashaw vs. Cody Garbrandt 2 Toe-to-Toe Preview - A complete breakdown

Phil and David breakdown everything you need to know about Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 at UFC 227, and everything you don’t about problematic lyrics.

T.J. Dillashaw vs. Cody Garbrandt 2 headlines UFC 227 this August 4, 2018 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California.

One sentence summary

David: Dillashaw, Killashaw, Dolla Dolla Face the Pain-a-Shaw...umm...versus No Love in a battle of awful nicknames for great fighters

Phil: Hey snake, are you there? Snake? SNAAAAAAAAKE

Stats

Record: T.J. Dillashaw 15-3 | Cody Garbrandt 11-1

Odds: T.J. Dillashaw -125 | Cody Garbrandt +115

History / Introduction to both fighters

David: Dillashaw came in as second fiddle to John Dodson as the premiere TUF prospect, and somewhere along the way turned into a symbol of a “new breed” of striker. As cliched as it was, it was a well earned moniker (unlike whatever Karyn Bryant is trying for; though to be fair, unlike most nicknames, Bryant put forth actual effort). We tend to forget just how good he’s been because aside from the Dodson loss seven years ago, nobody has blown him out. He’s constantly in the fight. Which is impressive when you consider his style. I still like this fight a lot as a competitive bout; not just a necessary one.

Phil: For a minute there it seemed almost as if TJ Dillashaw might have been one of those guys just getting bumped off the side of history. Despite his historic upset against Renan Barao, he lost the narrowest of narrow decisions to Dominic Cruz, and then it looked like a new era had arrived with Cody Garbrandt. Where Dillashaw had struggled with Cruz, Garbrandt butchered him with almost no effort. He was younger, harder hitting, and from the UFC reaction, more immediately saleable with the public. Dillashaw kept plugging away, kept racking up the wins, and got his shot at his former gym-mate, and knocked him out after an early scare. Now he’s pointing out that he has a legitimate consideration for being the best bantamweight of all time, and while I don’t agree, it’s not a terrible call on further examination. If that Cruz fight went the other way, his resume would be pretty astonishing.

David: Garbrandt stole whatever prospect lifeforce Tomas Almeida had, fused it with his own, and powered through Dominick Cruz with an ease that seemed inconceivable (!). I’m still not sure that we have a full grasp of Garbrandt’s skillset. His boxing is absolutely elite, and I don’t believe that’s changed. But judging that fight makes you wonder if he’s one of those fighters like Joseph Benavidez; elite tools, but who happens to be fighting at a time when his worst stylistic matchup is also at the top. I’m not ready to write him off in this matchup, but what hurts is that instead of taking a tune-up, the UFC has just dropped him right back in the mix. I tend to err on the side of patience with stuff like this. Especially when Dillashaw and Garbrandt are clearly a step above their peers.

Phil: Cody Garbrandt was on top of the world. Like TJ Dillashaw before him, he took on a seemingly-invincible champion and just wrecked him. Whereas Dillashaw and Cruz were all flash and stutter steps and stance switches, Garbrandt was focused and clean, doing relatively few things but doing them with absolutely blazing speed and horrific power. Suddenly it seemed like an entire era was being laid to rest, and minimalism was the new hotness. Until it wasn’t. With the DJ superfight talk falling through, however, Garbrandt has managed to get right back in there for another title fight against Dillashaw. Whether that’s a good thing or a bad one is an interesting thought.

What’s at stake?

Phil: Should both TJ and DJ win, the clamor for them to have a superfight will likely be the biggest thing to come out of the event. If Garbrandt wins, I think we’re probably looking at a rubber match. Marlon Moraes is always out there as the next pick, as well.

David: Pretty much. I don’t think Moraes is ready for either one of them right now, but I think that should have been Cody’s bounceback fight if the UFC had wanted to take their time with a rematch that deserves both men at their absolute peak. I don’t think I’m ready to see a DJ superfight unless Cruz is fully out of the picture.

Where do they want it?

Phil: Stylistically, Dillashaw has come something of a full circle. When we first saw him in the UFC, he was broadly a wrestler with a dangerous left head kick. In some recent fights, that’s a style that we’ve seen him return to. Mostly it’s that kick, and while many fighters mix up their approach with rear hand power shots, it’s mostly a timing factor with TJ- he stutter steps the kick, throws it off stance changes, and even fakes a level change into it, which is one of his oldest and neatest tricks. The stance switching was always something which was a little overplayed in his game, but rather than being something which he starts with in a fight which then quickly fades out as he gets into the habit of throwing down in the pocket or just lacing people with kicks, his stance switching is increasingly judiciously layered into his game. While elements of his style (notably his defense) are overplayed, he’s an impressively protean, smart fighter. He fought very different and very effective gameplans against Assuncao, Lineker and Garbrandt, and it looked like he had latched onto an effective way to beat Cruz by the time their fight finished.

David: Dillashaw is the quintessential east-west fighter. Most fighters are confined to backing opponents up, or backing up themselves. Dillashaw has no time for this sort of pressure obviousness. Enabled by an open stance rather traditional or southpaw, he makes expert use of switch steps to cut around typical attacks. In a way, it’s a very the best defense is a good offense philosophy. It’s there in his losses too; Assuncao and Cruz are two different sides of the same attack coin, focusing on quiet space more than the man in front (Assuncao with technical boxing and anticipation, Cruz with footwork and pivots). Part of what allows TJ to attack with power is that he cuts distance so quick, by the time he resets, he’s able to plant his feet for a big kick or punch while his opponent is still adjusting. That variety — switch kicks, superman punches, stutter steps, etc — not only works offensively, but it also works defensively. All this little details add up to feed him information about his opponent’s attack. It’s no wonder why he managed to avenge his loss to Assuncao, did progressively better against Cruz as you pointed out, and against Garbrandt made a brilliant adjustment to tone his attack down. His movements and general attack are flashy, sure, but he’s a heady fighter who knows the dual role they serve, long term.

Phil: Crushingly powerful and perhaps the fastest man P4P in the sport, Garbrandt is an athletic marvel. His footwork is tight and economical, his defensive wrestling is near-bulletproof, and his handspeed is ridiculous. But. As mentioned on Heavy Hands, a review of his tape reveals something of a Gastelum vibe to proceedings. When you first see his favoured combination ( two three or three two) it blows you away with speed and power. The second time it’s impressive. The fifth or sixth time and you find yourself wondering whether he can do more. It’s clear that Garbrandt can do more things. He has a dangerous jab, he can kick to the legs, and he’s an excellent offensive wrestler when he wants to be. But that seems to be a key problem. There are certain fighters who refuse to move out of their comfort zone, and only start to show new wrinkles to their game when they are styling on opponents. It feels like Garbrandt might be one of them.

David: Good work taking over for Patrick Wyman, British Tuco Salamanca. One of the difficult things about previewing fights is battling recency bias. Garbrandt got starched, and so naturally we second guess what we once praised. But I think you guys touched on a real pattern here; part of it’s real, and something we can judge — Garbrandt’s arsenal, though dangerous, is somewhat limited. But we also have limited footage to work with. He’s a young fighter with a small amount of bouts. Then the question is about what’s not there, instead of what is. We know Cody’s power is ridiculous. With his speed, it’s almost impossible to get away once he lands because his combinations chain the violence in a way that requires your brain to be a broom trying to stem a tide. He’s like the shotokon characters from Street Fighter. He can combo out from those fireballs, resulting in maximum damage, but if you can maneuver around them, you’re in good shape. No the question is; can Garbrandt adjust?

Insight from past fights

Phil: Their first fight is an obvious one, but I also found myself reviewing Garbrandt against Enrique Briones. When I first saw it, I thought it was impressive performance from a young fighter, where he refused to overcommit against a crafty veteran. Rewatching it now, I find myself thinking: perhaps he just can’t lead effectively without risky blitzes. Cruz is a much better fighter than Briones, but his loopy entries and pathological need to keep scoring points kept Garbrandt able to land his counters. What if someone just hangs out on the outside and snipes at Garbrandt? That’s the question he needs to answer. Preferably with the word “jab.”

David: I don’t think Dillashaw is out of the woods, stylistically. Garbrandt didn’t look great in their first fight, but his skillset is similar to Raphael Assuncao; not in terms of style, of course, but in terms of how they anticipate. Both guys were able to catch TJ in spots where he would overstay his welcome on the feet. Garbrandt needs to figure out a way to keep Dillashaw from constantly bridging their proximity together. What makes TJ dangerous is that as he moves forward, the gives himself more options, and as opponents open up/defend/or tire, those options expand. Throwing kicks, jabs, or mixing it up with takedowns would theoretically keep Dillashaw from building on his fight wikipedia. I don’t think Garbrandt needs to be better defensively (I don’t think he’s capable, to be honest). I think he needs to just limit Dillashaw’s punch entries.

X-Factors

Phil: I’d worry whether the trash talk is getting to either man, but I honestly don’t think that they’re reflective enough. Racial slurs are “lyrics” and nothing to be embarrassed about and... look, just stop talking and fight. Please?

David: Took the words from my paragraph right outta my mouth.

Prognostication

David: I favor Garbrandt a little. I know it’s not the smart choice, but here’s why: Garbrandt’s on the surface talents are so distinguished, that I don’t think it’ll take many tweaks to keep this one even. Garbrandt looked as bad as I’ve seen him when he fought DJ. There was no movement, he look flustered, timid, and even fragile. But even within that he managed to score a knockdown, and the one time he finally thought he should throw a jab, it landed flush on Dillashaw’s schnoz. These tweaks don’t even have to be consistent. He just has to make TJ think they’re there, and all Cody needs is one counter to completely turn the fight around. Garbrandt entered the UFC in his 6th pro fight, and won the title over the greatest bantamweight in its short history just six fights later. I can’t understate that kind of potential, or potential for adjustments. Cody Garbrandt by TKO, round 3.

Phil: This is a real proving point for Garbrandt. In many ways, he had his prospect loss after he lost his belt. He’s never really had to expand his game beyond a few simple counterpunching combinations and footwork, and now the question is whether he can do that in a relatively short amount of time. There are many things he could add into a rematch: a jab, more of a focus on a leg kick, or even his own wrestling. But once Dillashaw keyed in on the kicks in their first fight, it looked like Garbrandt didn’t have much of an answer, and being an adaptive fighter is just not something we’ve seen from him in his career. It is something we’ve seen from TJ, however. TJ Dillashaw by TKO, round 3.