Diggin’ Deep on UFC on FOX 30: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 - FOX prelims preview

Get the scoop on the televised prelims of UFC on FOX 30, featuring powerhouse lightweight Islam Makhachev looking to thwart the unlikely run of Canadian veteran Kajan Johnson.

I ripped into the quality of the televised prelims yesterday for the Fight Pass. Though I stand by the assessment that there are better quality fights on Fight Pass than on the FOX prelims, that doesn’t mean they are absolute crap. Most of the contests feature up-and-comers who could emerge as players in their respective divisions. However, despite the potential they offer, they are not yet amongst the top fighters of their divisions. That doesn’t mean the likes of Islam Makhachev or Hakeem Dawodu won’t get there, but they still require a bit more seasoning.

The televised prelims begin on FOX at 6:00 PM ET/3:00 PM PT on Saturday.

Jordan Mein (30-12) vs. Alex Morono (14-4, 1 NC), Welterweight

Remember when Mein was the hot up-and-comer in the welterweight division? It was after integrating into the UFC following the folding of Strikeforce, knocking out Dan Miller in less than a round after no one had been able to finish Miller prior to that. That was when he was 23. Now at the age of 28, Mein appears to be on the downside of his career, having already endured one retirement since that time.

The issue is Mein began his professional career at the age of 16. With 42 fights under his belt, Mein’s body has endured a lot of punishment over the years. That doesn’t mean he’s completely spent as he showed a lot growth in his victory over Silva. He pressured effectively, put together nice striking combinations, and paced himself so that he was effective bell to bell. Mein has also made it a stronger point to utilize his wrestling in recent appearances, perhaps to help minimize his potentially declining durability.

Morono isn’t the athlete Mein is, but he does possess the hyper-activity that Mein has struggled with in recent years. Granted, Morono hasn’t exactly been the model of a technical striker, allowing the likes of Keita Nakamura and Niko Price to piece him up on the feet. Then again, Morono looked much sharper than he ever has before in his short contest with a shot Josh Burkman. Morono has always had a nose for submissions too, even if he isn’t a classically skilled grappler.

Morono is a bad stylistic match for Mein, who struggles when his opponent pushes a hard pace and that’s exactly what Morono will do. However, Morono has never been known for his takedown defense. Should Mein continue to place an emphasis on that aspect, he could keep the pace slow enough that he takes an easy decision. If Morono can remain standing, he should be able to outwork his Canadian opponent. I’m favoring the former. Mein via decision

Hakeem Dawodu (7-1-1) vs. Austin Arnett (15-4), Featherweight

Dawodu was a highly touted prospect upon his UFC debut only to be submitted in 39 seconds by Danny Henry. Many will give Dawodu a pass given his youth and inexperience as he just turned 27 and will complete his tenth MMA fight with this contest. Then again, it would have been one thing had Dawodu been outgrappled as his ground game is questionable. However, it was a big right hand that led to the submission. Dawodu’s strength is his diverse striking game, particularly in the clinch.

Fortunately for Dawodu, Arnett also suffers from defensive deficiencies. Despite a tall frame with a 72” reach, Arnett has struggled to keep his last two opponents from piecing him up. He’s gotten in a lot offense in too, but not nearly as much as his opponents have. Arnett does try to utilize his length – and does throw out his jab quite a bit – but has yet to figure out how to use it defensively. He does have a knack for finding his opponent’s neck amidst scrambles, though his wrestling is questionable at best.

Given the major defensive deficiencies of Arnett, it looks like the UFC is trying to get Dawodu back on track. That doesn’t mean Arnett has no chance, particularly should they end up in a scramble. Still, the odds are stacked in favor of Dawodu to walk away with his first UFC victory. Dawodu via TKO of RD2

Kajan Johnson (23-12-1) vs. Islam Makhachev (15-1), Lightweight

Following a brutal KO loss to Tae Hyun Bang, it appeared Johnson was on his way out the door in short order. After all, he’d been plying his trade in the sport for over a dozen years at that point and had his jaw broken the previous year. That was four years ago. Since that time, Johnson hasn’t lost, looking rejuvenated in the process… 16 years into his professional career. What gives?

Though I obviously can’t give a definitive answer, I can speculate. Johnson appears to have focused a lot more on defense and letting the fight come to him in the latter years of his career than he ever did as a youngster. Not necessarily a surprise, but the results have been apparent. He’s throwing with more power and effectively utilizing his 75” reach. He did slow down significantly in his last contest where he utilized a lot of movement on the outside, something that’s worth keeping an eye on against a brickhouse like Makhachev.

Makhachev looks like he’s turned a corner himself. A hyped prospect upon his UFC entry three years ago, Makhachev was forgotten by many after his sophomore effort following a surprising KO loss to Adriano Martins. Makhachev is still very much the same fighter he was stylistically at the time of his loss, but he’s slowed down the aggression enough in his striking that savvy and experienced opponents can no longer get his timing down with ease. In fact, one might say Makhachev has become a savvy striker himself based on his recent one-punch KO of Gleison Tibau. However, Makhachev’s primary weapon is – and always will be – his physical wrestling style honed by years of practicing with Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Even with Makhachev’s improvements in his striking, he’s still going to struggle to outpoint an opponent if he’s unable to knock them out. Should Makhachev look to engage with Johnson on the feet, Johnson stands a great chance of winning. However, Makhachev has been fully aware of where his roots lie since his loss to Martins. He’ll make things ugly and be rewarded for it. Makhachev via decision

Gadzhimurad Antigulov (20-4) vs. Ion Cutelaba (13-3, 1 NC), Light Heavyweight

The UFC tried pairing these two together back in November only for Antigulov to pull out due to injury. Though neither would be deemed a hot prospect, they’ve shown enough that the winner will likely emerge as a dark horse of sorts in a shallow division.

Antigulov’s isn’t a good athlete, but he has a rare skill set for the division. A submission specialist in a division loaded on strikers, Antigulov isn’t the traditional technical wrestler you’d expect out of someone who relies so heavily on getting the fight to the mat. Instead, he uses his know-how – picked up over his years of experience -- while relentlessly pursuing a single-leg or trip. His standup isn’t a complete mess as he owns an effective uppercut, though its effectiveness is largely limited to when he’s closing the distance to get in on a takedown.

Cutelaba is in many ways the antithesis of Antigulov. Whereas Antigulov is undersized for the division, Cutelaba is built like a brick house. Though he has a reputation as a reckless brawler, the native of Moldova owns a strong wrestling game to compliment his heavy hands. However, there is one category in which he carries a major similarity to Antigulov: he wastes little time looking for the finish. Cutelaba’s aggression has cost him before as he has spent the back end of fights merely looking to survive if he can’t knock his opponent unconscious early. Then again, Antigulov could suffer the same fate… though only one of his contests has ever gone to decision.

Though Antigulov’s approach appears to be reckless, it’s a style he’s spent years perfecting. The Russian knows what he wants to do and sets out to accomplish it in the fastest way possible with great efficiency. Cutelaba may know what he wants to do as well, but doesn’t have all the subtle tricks Antigulov possesses in order to secure the finish. Expect Antigulov to continue moving his way up the rankings. Antigulov via submission of RD1