Diggin’ Deep on UFC 226 - FS1 prelims preview

Get the scoop on the televised prelims of a stack UFC 226 card, featuring perennial bantamweight contender Raphael Assuncao attempting to turn away upstart action fighter Rob Font.

Do you ever wish for one thing, express disappointment when you get something else, only to be completely satisfied once you finally indulge in what you got? The FS1 prelims very much have that type of feel to them. Nobody was asking for any of these contests prior to them being put together. Hell, I don’t think Paul Felder clashing with Mike Perry ever crossed anybody’s mind until injuries to their opponents allowed for the two to be paired together. Nonetheless, each of these contests offer a captivation of the mind upon closer inspection.

The UFC 226 FS1 prelims begin at 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT on Saturday.

Uriah Hall (13-8) vs. Paulo Costa (11-0), Middleweight

Few fighters have been as maligned as Hall. No one denies his talents. Hall’s ability to land a fight changing strike out of nowhere is unmatched. Just ask Gegard Mousasi or Krzysztof Jotko about it. However, he is also a complex personality who doesn’t seem to have the mindset to excel in the sport the way his physical abilities indicate he should. It doesn’t take away from how dangerous he can be, but it does offer some insight into his glaring inconsistent results.

While Hall isn’t as good as some believe, he’s also not as bad as his harshest critics might suggest. One of the things those critics might suggest is that Hall has no ground game. Granted, he’s unlikely to obtain a submission, but Hall has shown the ability to hit the occasional takedown while executing sound takedown defense. Still, his bread and butter has always been his rangy kicks and punches with the ability to land a home run at any point. He sent Mousasi sprawling with a jumping knee and is known for his spinning attacks, but it isn’t like he does everything with flash. A simple straight right hand was all that was needed to begin the finishing process of Jotko.

Costa could be more physically gifted than Hall, though he hasn’t faced the same gauntlet of challenges Hall has. That doesn’t mean the UFC hasn’t tried to test Costa, matching him against the recently retired Johny Hendricks in his last contest, but everyone knows Hendricks was well past his prime. Nonetheless, Costa looked impressive, using his reach to piece up the former welterweight champion, Costa displayed more discipline than most anticipated he possessed. That likely won’t be as effective against Hall whose 79” reach is about 10” more than Hendricks… and 7” more than Costa.

Nonetheless, Costa’s pressuring style is just what Hall has tended to crumble under. Combine that with Costa’s rapid improvement fight to fight and it’s hard to see Hall emerging victorious. Then again, it’s impossible to completely count out Hall. Perhaps he could even hit the occasional takedown on Costa – whose grappling and wrestling are still a mystery – and score a decision… though the sudden KO seems more likely should Hall win. Costa via TKO of RD1

Paul Felder (15-3) vs. Mike Perry (11-3), Welterweight

I’m not sure how I feel about this contest, but that doesn’t mean I’m not excited to see how it plays out. Felder is a natural lightweight, but stepped in when the UFC pulled the rug out from under him by removing his opponent for UFC Boise to replace Al Iaquinta against Justin Gaethje. Sure, I’d still prefer to see Felder and James Vick do the damn thing, but seeing how Felder does with a larger opponent in Perry is an intriguing option I won’t turn away from.

One of the funny things about this contest is the opposite trajectories of the fighters. Felder has been rocketing upwards after a rocky period whereas Perry has struggled to get back on the winning path after an exciting start to his UFC career. Perry’s struggles can be rooted to a couple of things, but perhaps the most notable would be a lack of direction. That became apparent when cameras caught his girlfriend in his corner telling him to break the leg of Max Griffin. Even if the fight were a grappling contest at the time, it wouldn’t seem like the best technical advice. It comes across even worse when the fight is strictly a standup affair.

Perry decided to change things up, moving his camp to Jackson-Wink. Given Perry is a highly emotional fighter, many would agree Greg Jackson appears to be on the surface the right person to tap into Perry’s vast potential. It isn’t that Perry is a stupid fighter. He knows his strengths and plays to them. His power is unworldly and he’s patient in waiting for his opponents to wade into his striking range. The problem is opponents became keen to this strategy and have stuck to picking apart Perry from the outside with the well-time takedown mixed in there.

Though he’s used to fighting smaller opponents, Felder may have the fighting style to expose Perry the same way Griffin and Santiago Ponzinibbio have been able to. Felder has sharpened his boxing skills in recent contests to compliment his vast kicking arsenal, ranging from basic low and round kicks to spinning techniques. He’s tough in the clinch too, but it’s hard to see Felder outmuscling the stocky Perry in close quarters.

The wild card is what type of effect Jackson will have on Perry. If he can help the power puncher make in-fight adjustments and spice up his strategy a bit, Perry could end up blasting past Felder with ease. If Perry is resistant to change, Felder could easily end up picking him apart. Both have proven to be durable, but Perry’s power is damn-near superhuman. He may need just one good shot on Felder. With the help of a new camp, he may get it. Perry via TKO of RD1

Raphael Assuncao (26-5) vs. Rob Font (15-3), Bantamweight

If you need proof title shots are given and not earned in the UFC, look no further than Assuncao. With 10 wins in his last 11 appearances since moving to bantamweight – including a win over current champion TJ Dillashaw in that stretch – the longtime veteran has been rewarded with a trap fight against a dangerous Rob Font. Don’t mistake me for saying Font isn’t a tough fight. He absolutely is. But Assuncao has nothing to gain with a win over Font and everything to lose should he come up short. Tough noogies for the Brazilian.

Assuncao hasn’t been able to get that well-deserved shot at the belt due to his milk-toast style. He throws a counter right with regularity – and accuracy – as his primary offensive weapon. Though he has some power behind it, his finish of Matthew Lopez last fall was his first finish in nearly five years. As good as he is, Assuncao isn’t selling tickets with his slick footwork and barrage of low kicks. Though he has become a technically sound striker, his grappling may be the strongest part of his game with his wrestling the most underrated part.

Font won’t be able to out-slick Assuncao, but he could overwhelm him. Font’s punching power is near the top for the 135 division and he possesses a 5” reach advantage over Assuncao to help him find a way to connect with his chin. Granted, Font has never made the greatest utilization of his reach, preferring to counter with hooks in the pocket, but he has been making strides to improve at keeping his opponent at a distance.

My gut instinct says Font does the UFC a favor and notches a loss on Assuncao to remove him from near the top of the pecking order. However, I think of two things and back off that thought: Font’s loss to Pedro Munhoz and his poor takedown defense. Font did piece up Munhoz most of the fight, but Assuncao doesn’t have the same defensive deficiencies as Munhoz. As for his weak defense of takedowns, Font does tend to get back to his feet quickly, but I also don’t see any noted grapplers on his ledger… aside from Munhoz… and Munhoz did submit him. Assuncao via submission of RD2

Curtis Millender (15-3) vs. Max Griffin (14-4), Welterweight

Millender made a hell of a statement in his UFC debut, coming in on short notice to dispose of former title contender Thiago Alves in fashion, all while making it look easy. A massive welterweight at 6’2” with a 78” reach, Millender won’t be able to ply his trade at 170 forever. Until the time comes that he can no longer make the cut, his size alone will create all sorts of problems for opponents. Despite that, Millender jabs only on the counter, preferring to throw a wide variety of kicks at his opponents. While he can be prone to pressure, Millender’s clinch has proven to be more than serviceable.

Griffin’s UFC debut two years ago went poorly, but everything has been looking upwards ever since. Sure, he didn’t win every contest in that span, but his loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos was one of the most brutal brawls seen in the UFC in 2017, displaying toughness and durability in spades. In his next contest – after quitting his job to focus on training full time – Griffin displayed discipline and a technical kickboxing game, picking apart Mike Perry with a jab and low kicks from the outside. Though there are still major questions about his grappling, Griffin has proven to be a versatile striker at the very least.

This isn’t an easy contest to predict. Griffin has plus power, but Millender has been coming into his own as a striker, delivering three straight brutal finishes. Putting away Alves is no easy task, even if Alves is well past his prime. If it goes to a decision, Griffin’s activity makes him a smart bet, but I’m going with my gut telling me Millender finds a home for one of his brutal head kicks to end the evening early for the upstart striker. Millender via KO of RD2