Diggin’ Deep on UFC Utica: FS1 prelims preview
Get the scoop on the televised prelims of Friday’s UFC card from Utica, featuring a lightweight scrap between longtime vet Nik Lentz and striker David Teymur, plus women’s flyweight contenders Sijara Eubanks and Lauren Murphy.
The televised prelims of UFC Utica feel very much like the last two cards the UFC presented: underwhelming. Sure, there’s a possibility that the winner of Sijara Eubanks and Lauren Murphy will get a title shot once Nicco Montano defends against Valentina Shevchenko, but that division is still sorting itself out. Translation: nobody really cares. Don’t get me wrong; I hope the action proves to be awesome. I’m just not counting on it.
The FS1 prelims begin at 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT on Friday.
Sijara Eubanks (2-2) vs. Lauren Murphy (10-3), Women’s Flyweight
Back in December, Eubanks was originally scheduled to face Nicco Montano for the inaugural women’s flyweight title before botching her weight cut so bad that she was forced to pull out of the contest, costing her a chance at history. Eubanks struggled to make the 125-pound weight limit in every contest in the TUF tournament as well, leading many to question whether she should be returning back to bantamweight. If she misses weight here or appears dehydrated, those demands will intensify.
It isn’t difficult to see why Eubanks is so insistent on making things work for her at flyweight. At 5’4”, she’s a bit short for 125, much less the bantamweight division. Her 67” reach helps to compensate for her lack of height, but it hasn’t stopped her from struggling from fighting at range. Eubanks power ensures she isn’t completely helpless in a striking battle and she has a nice array of round kicks to all levels of the body, but too often her punches appear to come up just short of the intended target. Should she get the contest to the ground – and she’s a tenacious wrestler even if she isn’t the most technically sound – her GnP may be the best in the division.
Murphy appears to have salvaged her career by dropping to flyweight after four UFC contests at 135. Typically, a brawler with a predictable striking arsenal, Murphy utilized a surprisingly slick grappling game in her flyweight debut against Barb Honchak. Typically, her wrestling and grappling has been overrated, relying more on her aggression than her technique. Perhaps the 17-month absence prior to her contest with Honchak did some good in her development.
The one aspect of Murphy’s game that didn’t appear improved against Honchak was her striking defense. While that could be enough for Eubanks to either find a finish or take a decision, Murphy’s hyper-aggression in her striking and wrestling could also empty Eubanks’ tank. That doesn’t even bring up Murphy’s impressive durability. I’m going out on a limb in picking Murphy. Murphy via decision
Nik Lentz (28-8-2, 1 NC) vs. David Teymur (7-1), Lightweight
Would you believe it if I told you Lentz has been trolling around the UFC since 2009? Yep, Lentz is approaching a decade of tenure on the UFC roster. Perhaps the preeminent grinder of the lightweight division, Lentz has visibly slowed down physically from just a few years ago. He no longer has the same oomph in his shots and tends to slow down earlier in contests than he used to. However, he’s also become a more intelligent fighter in the process and developed better timing on his counter punches.
Teymur entered the UFC as an unheralded prospect off TUF who has since run off four consecutive victories to open up his UFC career. A former kickboxer before switching over to MMA, Teymur’s mastery of distance has allowed him to pick apart less skilled strikers with his jab and occasional power shot. He isn’t exactly helpless on the ground either, securing the occasional reactive takedown while developing a sturdy sprawl.
Stylistically, Lentz is a terrible matchup for Teymur. His wash-and-repeat approach towards takedowns has bored fans to death at times, but Lentz has broken many opponents with this approach. However, his body appears to be betraying him, being forced to pull out of contests recently as he appears to struggle with the weight cut. Though Drakkar close isn’t on Lentz’s level as a grinder, Teymur handled him well enough that I have confidence he should be able to handle Lentz. Teymur’s work in the clinch – Lentz’s preferable operating range – seals the deal in my mind. Teymur via TKO of RD3
Belal Muhammad (13-2) vs. Chance Rencountre (12-2), Welterweight
After a somewhat rocky start to his UFC career, Muhammad has found some consistency, having rattled off three wins in a row. An average athlete at best, Muhammad has had to rely on a steady jab with the occasional low kick in for good measure. It doesn’t excite, but it produces reliable offense that usually allows Muhammad to outpoint the opposition. His striking attack is well complimented with a wrestling game focused on preventing takedowns, though it hardly means Muhammad isn’t capable of securing a well-timed takedown of his own.
Rencountre looks like a bigger and stiffer version of former bantamweight champion, Dominick Cruz. It shouldn’t be a surprise since they are teammates. Rencountre times his counter punchers surprisingly well, throwing his strikes from awkward angles. However, he has had a tendency to fade a bit in fights, hardly a big surprise given his large frame for 170. He does have some nice pop, but Rencountre’s KO’s have dried up since his early career on the regional circuit. He has tried to compensate for that with the addition of a still improving submission game.
Though he is a better athlete, Rencountre has a hell of a task before him that he has only had about two weeks in which to prepare. Muhammad’s durability and deep gas tank could prove too much for the Alliance MMA representative. It’s hardly an impossible task for Rencountre to put Muhammad’s lights out, but the smart money indicates it would be wise to expect the contest to go to decision with Muhammad likely to walk away with his hand raised as Rencountre’s questionable gas tank won’t be helped by taking this contest on short notice. Muhammad via decision
Desmond Green (20-7) vs. Gleison Tibau (32-13), Lightweight
It’s plausible Tibau could be finished as a credible fighter. It shouldn’t be a big surprise given he’s stepped into the Octagon 28 times over the course of his career. That’s a lot of damage that has accumulated over the course of his career, not to mention him being finished in less than a minute in his last contest against Islam Makhachev. Perhaps it can be more attributed to his two year layoff after a PED suspension as opposed to his long career.
If Tibau is still the fighter he was prior to the suspension, it’s a simple pattern Tibau has established for pretty much every contest. In the first round, he uses his massive girth to grind against the fence and takedown his opponent for a blanketing attack. The second round begins much the same way, but about midway through the round, he slows considerably and the third round is all about survival, him shooting desperation takedowns. Tibau’s standup is nothing special, but it’s functional enough that his power can’t just be ignored.
Green is without a doubt the more athletic competitor with a better all-around game. His timing on his counter punches has improved steadily over the course of his career, but it doesn’t look like he’ll ever be a true KO threat. The most worrying concern for Green in this contest is Tibau is physically and stylistically similar to Green’s last opponent, Michel Prazeres. Green’s takedown defense has been solid, but he hasn’t been able to get back to his feet quickly enough.
Though Green isn’t going to experience any major leaps of improvement, he is capable of a better performance than what he put on against Prazeres. He abandoned his low kicks against Prazeres and it very well could have cost him a contest he might have won on points had he maintained his early volume. Given that it’s reasonable to expect Green to recover from that performance coupled with Tibau’s apparent decline, I’m going with the younger fighter. Green via decision