Diggin’ Deep on UFC Liverpool: Thompson vs. Till - Main card preview

Get the scoop on the main card of UFC Liverpool, featuring welterweight contender Neil Magny, plus rising prospect Arnold Allen looking to raise his profile.

Much like UFC Chile from last weekend, there is very little intrigue to UFC Liverpool beyond the main event. There was a little bit prior to Gunnar Nelson pulling out of the co-main event with Neil Magny, but late notice replacement Craig White does nothing to excite fans. Granted, prospect Arnold Allen offedr promise, but it’s too early in his career to tell if he is the real deal…much like Tatiana Suarez and Dominick Reyes from last week. There isn’t much to keep an eye on with this card…but there is something.

(Note: Davey Grant vs. Manny Bermudez has been cancelled)

The main card kicks off on FS1 at 1:00 PM ET/10:00 AM PT on Sunday.

Neil Magny (20-6) vs. Craig White (14-7), Welterweight

With all due respect to White, nobody expects this to be a competitive fight. With that said, the same claim was made about Lando Vannata before he gave Tony Ferguson a run for his money…

Diplomacy aside, Magny should walk all over White. Magny is experienced against some of the divisional elite, owning wins over the likes of Carlos Condit and Kelvin Gastelum with losses to Rafael dos Anjos and Demian Maia. There is very little Magny hasn’t seen and he’s improved his ability to use his freakish 80” reach. Despite the reach and ability to switch stances with aplomb, Magny is still at his best operating in close quarters, using his tall frame to leverage knees into the gut and face of his opponent while threatening to drop for a takedown. Magny has struggled to hold down the best in the division – or get out from underneath their control – but that hardly describes White.

What makes this contest even worse for White is he falls right into what Magny does best. Though scrappy and willing to brawl, White is a limited striker, doing his best work as he grinds away against the cage where he can threaten with trip takedowns. When the trips haven’t worked, White has resorted to pulling guard in hopes of securing a triangle choke. While being able to nab a submission off your back is always a good skill to possess, it’s a bad thing when that’s a go-to for you at the elite level.

It’s a shame Nelson was forced to pull out as a win over White does nothing for Magny besides net him a paycheck. He has nothing to gain and everything to lose. Where Magny has tended to struggle is against specialists. That doesn’t describe White at all. Magny should be able to have his way with the Welshman and secure an early finish. Magny via TKO, RD1

Arnold Allen (12-1) vs. Mads Burnell (9-2), Featherweight

At one point, Allen appeared to be one of the brighter featherweights on the roster. One fight over the last two years and playing a major role in a December 2016 brawl has done some serious damage to Allen’s reputation. Nonetheless, Allen is still built like a brick house with a surprising amount of athleticism for someone built so stoutly. In fact, Allen’s ability to scramble may be his biggest strength, strong enough to overpower his opponent on the ground and quick enough to get to the spot first. On the feet, Allen has developed a counter attack efficient enough that he no longer has to rely on outmuscling the opposition in the clinch.

The question is whether Burnell stands a chance against his supremely gifted opponent. Burnell received a lot of scorn following his victory over Mike Santiago after he missed weight by four pounds and proceeded to outwrestle and control his opponent on the ground to secure a decision. Can he win in the UFC without having to cut all the way down to 145? That has yet to be proven. On the feet, he’s tough in the clinch, but that’s about it.

Burnell has yet to develop a respectable standup game – he scored six significant strikes standing compared to 35 for Santiago – which means he’s going to have hope to catch Allen in a submission if he hopes to win. It isn’t out of the question as Burnell is aggressive searching for the sub, but that’s not going to be easy to do against Allen. Had Burnell been able to do so against Santiago, I’d have more confidence in Burnell’s ability to do so. He couldn’t. Allen should have his way with the young Dane. Allen via decision

Jason Knight (20-4) vs. Makwan Amirkhani (13-3), Featherweight

It wasn’t all that long ago the UFC was pushing both of these fighters as a big part of the featherweight division. Most understood Knight’s loss to Ricardo Lamas as Lamas is a former title contender who has been near the top of the division for over half a decade. His loss to Gabriel Benitez? Not quite as forgiving of a proposition.

Though no reports of an illness or injury emerged, Knight didn’t look like himself against Benitez. Normally a trash-talking pressure fighter who’s willing to eat a punch to deliver one – or two – Knight was reluctant to engage, likely suffering some PTSD from his brutal KO loss to Lamas. Then again, maybe he just had an off night. It happens. When he’s on, Knight has picked up the nickname of Hick Diaz due to his entertaining verbiage in the cage directed at his opponent in combination with his ability to lay on the volume nice and thick. One punch power he does not have, though the continued attack has resulted in some stoppages in the latter half of the contest.

In many ways, Amirkhani has the perfect skill set to hand Knight his third loss in a row. A top wrestler with a slick head lock game, Amirkhani tends to come out like a man on fire, aggressively pursuing a finish out of the gate. Thanks to his impressive athleticism, he’s been able to find more success than most would anticipate. However, the finishes dried up when he received a step up in competition and his lack of a functional striking game became exposed. Perhaps even more damning is how quickly he depletes his energy levels pursuing the early finish. Amirkhani has proven himself to be tough, but he’s easy pickings past the first round if he can’t get a takedown early in the round.

It’s hard not seeing Amirhkani getting some early takedowns and pursuing the finish. The problem there is Knight’s grappling game isn’t something to be taken likely. He’s owns one of the most dangerous guards in the division, though he does tend to operate off his back too long for his own good at times. If Knight opts to do that, Amirkhani stands a good chance of securing a decision. However, I’m favoring Knight’s striking to weigh more in the eyes of the judges, securing the decision late as Amirkhani fades after a strong start. Knight via decision

Eric Spicely (10-3) vs. Darren Stewart (7-3, 1 NC), Middleweight

Though win-or-go-home fights aren’t as clear as they used to be in the Joe Silva era, it feels safe to say this contest falls into that category. Spicely had a nice little two-fight win streak that included one of the bigger upsets of 2016 when he submitted Thiago Santos only to fall back to earth with two losses in a row. On the flip side, Stewart has yet to pick up an official UFC win despite four attempts to do so.

Spicely’s roster spot doesn’t sound like it should be in as much jeopardy as Stewart, but Spicely’s style doesn’t do much to draw fans into the gate. Perhaps the worst athlete in the middleweight division – maybe even the roster – Spicely has almost no functional striking, using it as a distraction to close the distance for the clinch where he can get the fight to the ground. Granted, Spicely’s submission game is about as crafty as it gets, but he’s in serious trouble if he can’t get the tap before the opening round is out. Only two of his ten wins came beyond the first five minutes.

Stewart used to be an undersized light heavyweight before moving down to middleweight. He’s no longer being bullied, but he’s still struggling due to a lack of proper technique in pretty much every facet of the game. Despite that, Stewart has been able to be competitive due to his tenacity and durability, favoring a brawl over a technical contest. He can do damage with his heavy hooks, but he doesn’t have much in terms of defensive skill. Stewart’s strongest area is in the clinch where he tries a rinse and repeat strategy with takedowns, though it hasn’t been nearly as successful since coming to the UFC.

Both Spicely and Stewart are imminently flawed. Stewart has more to work with from a physical perspective, but Spicely’s savvy and submission skills have caught more talented and skilled fighters than Stewart. There will be zero surprise if Stewart plows forward and knocks Spicely into Neverland, but Spicely is tricky from close quarters… too tricky for Stewart is my guess. Spicely via submission, RD1