UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 staff picks and predictions
Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 in Detroit, Michigan.
The Bloody Elbow staff has submitted its predictions for Saturday night’s spectacular UFC 218 card in Detroit, Michigan. Only Tim Bissell and Ram Gilboa believe that Jose Aldo will get his featherweight title back by beating Max Holloway in the main event. Ryan Davies is the only man going for Alistair Overeem to beat Francis Ngannou in the co-main event. Elsewhere, it’s a clean sweep for Henry Cejudo over Sergio Pettis, it’s one-sided opinion for Justin Gaethje to take care of Eddie Alvarez, and a slight lean towards Tecia Torres to get past Michelle Waterson in the main card opener.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he's going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Anton Tabuena: Aldo’s camp has been hinting at throwing more leg kicks on this one, which is a good sign if it ends up being true. That being said, I think Holloway has his number. I picked him the first time because he has far better hands and much higher output, all while being longer and better at controlling distance. Those stylistic advantages proved to be pivotal on the first contest, and even with slightly more leg kicks, I really don’t think Aldo can rework his game enough to overcome all of that. Not only that, he’s coming in on relatively short notice to try and beat a younger, stronger, and arguably faster opponent. Max Holloway by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: Aldo probably has to be more aggressive to beat Holloway this time around, and that means setting a pace that he most likely cannot handle if it goes past two rounds. I’d love to see the return of leg kick Aldo but he’s almost willingly put that on the shelf for quite some time. Also, Nova Uniao has just absolutely fallen apart and I can’t confidently pick anyone from there anymore. Holloway has a hell of a chin, underrated power, tremendous killer instinct, and I think he just wipes out Aldo faster than the first time. Max Holloway by TKO, round 2.
Ryan Davies: Max is a once in a generation type of fighter, it’s not often you get young, smart and tough as nails in one package. The rainbow warrior showed off his revolutionary skill set when these two first met, dropping the first two rounds before adjusting to the fight and completely taking over. The only difference I see in this fight is a shorter adjustment period. No disrespect to Aldo but his game has always been pretty straight forward and I can’t imagine any adjustments he could make that would result in a win, especially on short notice. Holloway TKO 2nd
Victor Rodriguez: Look, I want to think Aldo can win this. Realistically, it’s totally possible. It’s just not likely. After the thumping he ate at the hands of Holloway last time, what can he bring to the table this time that’s different and that can win him the fight? Especially on short notice? He never really established his leg kicks the way he wanted, nor was he able to use his jab effectively enough. Once Holloway opened up and threw everything at him, Aldo didn’t have any answers .That’s not to say that he couldn’t or didn’t learn anything from that bout, just that at his age and with the stylistic difference, he’ll have to be a lot more bold with his approach moving forward and less reliant on sitting back and waiting for the counter. In the meantime, it pains me to say it - that belt’s going back to Waianae. Max Holloway by TKO.
Zane Simon: My guess is that Jose Aldo is going to come out like a house on fire and try to make what worked great for him in round 1 last time an entire game plan. The concern there being that what worked early also seemed to tire him out pretty quickly and allowed Holloway to take over late. If Aldo invests heavily in a kicking game for this fight, everything changes. But if he just comes out throwing heat, trying to KO Holloway fast, my guess is we see a pretty similar fight to last time. Max Holloway via TKO, Round 3.
Staff picking Holloway: Nick, Mookie, Davies, Victor, Anton, Phil, Zane, Dayne, Stephie
Staff picking Aldo: Bissell, Ram
Francis Ngannou vs. Alistair Overeem
Anton Tabuena: Like most heavyweight bouts, the result may just depend on who lands the first significant shot. Both men hit hard -- Ngannou especially -- but they both have the power to end the fight at any point. Ngannou is also the younger, faster, and more athletic, but Overeem will be the more technical fighter. I expect Overeem to try and keep distance to land a big counter. While that seems very possible, if Ngannou doesn’t rush in too wildly, I think he has a better chance of ending it with one of those bombs. Francis Ngannou by KO.
Mookie Alexander: The Heavy Hands guys picked Overeem, and I think that’s fair. Ngannou hasn’t dealt with strikers such as Overeem, plus he’s not really shown the type of footwork that normally gives Overeem problems. With that said, this version of Ngannou is the first one that’s trained in the United States. Behold a new mythical figure: US-trained Ngannou! Anyway, I can’t trust Overeem’s chin to hold up to any hard shot Ngannou will inevitably land, so it’s Francis Ngannou by KO, round 1.
Ryan Davies: I see this fight as strength vs strength and technique. Yes Alistair’s chin is notoriously suspect, but Ngannou has never experienced anything like an Ubereem flying knee. It goes without saying that anything can happen with two men this size, but if these guys fought ten times Alistair would win eight. Overeem Knockout 2nd
Victor Rodriguez: Overeem’s unexpected turn into the one-strike power hitter that turns in ugly fights until he busts out a sensational knockout was one that in hindsight should have been expected. He obliterated what was left of Andrei Arlovski’s already fading chin, and unceremoniously sent Junior dos Santos to the land of wind and ghosts. He’s cleaned up some of his defensive lapses, but not enough for someone to find his chin. Ngannou hits like a freight train, and has good hands with excellent takedown defense. I don’t see Overeem kicking his legs out from under him to the point where he’d get the stoppage. Ngannou is smart enough and durable enough to outlast Overeem and take anything thrown his way unless he eats too many shots in the clinch. I just can’t trust Overeem to keep it together. It sounds absurd to think that the K-1 veteran is gonna get thumped by a guy that didn’t even know what MMA was not long ago, but here we are. Francis Ngannou by Potemkin Instant Kill.
Ram Gilboa: Unfortunately, you can’t really train chin. Francis Ngannou by club and sub, round 1.
Zane Simon: There’s an exceptionally good chance that we see the return of wrestle-Reem. The man that fought in Strikeforce and put stompings on Frank Mir and Stefan Struve. If so, this fight could get really ugly for Ngannou who hasn’t yet shown nearly as deep a technical game as he has shown an imposingly physical one. Even still, I think the combination of speed and power Ngannou possesses is going to be too much. He’ll find ways to get up, he may get beat up a bit, but sooner or later he’ll find his counter and put Overeem on skates. He’s just that much faster than the guys Overeem has been beating lately for me to not trust Overeem’s superior skill and planning to get him through getting his chin cracked. Francis Ngannou via KO, Round 2.
Staff picking Ngannou: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Victor, Anton, Ram, Zane, Dayne, Stephie
Staff picking Overeem: Davies
Henry Cejudo vs. Sergio Pettis
Anton Tabuena: I think this is Cejudo’s fight to lose if he mixes things up well, and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he even won majority of the striking exchanges. Henry Cejudo by Decision.
Mookie Alexander: Pettis isn’t a finisher, he’s not going to take Cejudo down, and Cejudo is faster and more powerful than him on the feet. I thought about this being a competitive fight pre-Reis mauling, but now I’m really convinced Cejudo is the best flyweight in the world not named Demetrious Johnson. Henry Cejudo by unanimous decision.
Ryan Davies: The Pettis brothers struggles with strong wrestlers is a well documented one and you don’t get any better wrestler than Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo. If this were a five rounder Pettis might land a late sub, but in three rounds Cejudo will control the majority of the fight with his elite caliber wrestling. Cejudo Unanimous Decision
Victor Rodriguez: Sergio is a bit more complete than his brother, making a lot of small adjustments as the fight goes on and not being limited to the mid-range striking game. Cejudo’s been so good lately that he’s going to find openings with his boxing and lateral movement to fluster Pettis. After that, he’ll mix it up with his chain wrestling to eventually get the fight where he has more odds of success to control his way to a decision win. Henry Cejudo by decision
Phil Mackenzie: Pettis has a sizable disadvantage in baseline athleticism in every area. He is slower, less powerful as both a striker and grappler, and is less durable. Given Cejudo's recent improvements, it should be a lock. But there's one thing that gives me pause, and that is Sergio's footwork. In a stark difference from his brother, it is very, very good. Perhaps even (whisper it) the best in the flyweight division. I am consistently impressed by Pettis the Younger's efficiency when putting himself in position to land clean shots. I'm not sure if I can trust it to be the key that unlocks the incredible athletic puzzle in front of him, but if it is, it will be a treat to watch, because there's a tightrope between Cejudo's counter game and his clinch where I think Pettis can hang out. Probably the most purely fascinating fight on the card for me.Henry Cejudo by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Unfortunately for Pettis, his time in the UFC has exposed a couple of problems. He’s not as durable as you’d like (although still way more durable than he’s given credit for), and he’s not a finisher. And it’s that second on that’s a real problem, because it means he has trouble really putting a scare into people. There are still plenty of flyweights he can simply out-craft with his better defensive tendencies and deeper technical striking/grappling skills, but I don’t think Cejudo is one of them. This is especially a problem for this fight, because Cejudo has proved himself to be unquestionably tough and confident and aggressive in his time at flyweight. Which means he’s likely going to come out looking to bully Pettis everywhere and Pettis won’t have any one tool to dissuade him. Henry Cejudo by decision.
Staff picking Cejudo: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Davies, Victor, Anton, Ram, Phil, Zane, Dayne, Stephie
Staff picking Pettis:
Eddie Alvarez vs. Justin Gaethje
Anton Tabuena: Gaethje’s style will eventually get him knocked him out, but I’m not so sure that happens here. I have a feeling Alvarez will either try to wrestle and clinch with him for most of the contest, or he will engage in an ill-advised firefight with Gaethje that will guarantee fight of the night honors -- but also end up badly for him. It could be a mix of both, but I expect Gaethje to come out on top either way. Justin Gaethje by glorious and violent TKO.
Mookie Alexander: I’ll never count Alvarez out of any fight, and he absolutely can stop Gaethje here, but I don’t think he will. He’ll have his moments in the opening round, but Gaethje’s an otherworldly clinch striker and I can easily see him piecing Eddie up with leg kicks, just as Donald Cerrone did in 2014. This will be a war for however long it lasts, and Gaethje is going to wear Alvarez down and get the finish. Justin Gaethje by TKO, round 3.
Ryan Davies: Disregard my previous remarks about Oliveira vs Medeiros being the odds on favorite for fight of the night, this fight has serious GOAT matchup potential. I will keep it short, Gaethje wants to know who is equal is and I don’t think it is the former champ. Gaethje TKO 1st
Victor Rodriguez: Logic and reason would dictate that Justin will be able to drop Eddie and ruin him with absolute violence due to his reach and ability to absorb and unholy amount of punishment. Gaethje should be confident in his ability to overcome everything and put Eddie away. Then again, that confidence was also carried by Kawajiri. And Hansen. And dos Anjos. Everyone thinks that just because he can be dropped, that the fight’s over. And yes, Eddie’s taken a ton of damage over his career. He didn’t fight smart against McGregor and it cost him. But as the resident BE Eddie Alvarez cheerleader, your boy’s gonna stay faithful to the brand. You won’t need three rounds for this one. Eddie Alvarez by TKO
Ram Gilboa: There’s a farm somewhere, where some chickens are shaking their heads at two roosters duking it out, and they’re cheeping to ban it, saying “this is really cock Gaethje-Alvarez fighting”. Justin Gaethje by decision
Phil Mackenzie: Justin Gaethje is, at heart, a brawler. Eddie Alvarez is often mischaracterized, but I think the style which best describes him is "anti-brawler brawler". Like a spider that evolved to prey on other spiders, Alvarez developed his counterpunches, body shots and fence-escape tricks in order to beat up on fighters who share his mindset. This is why I thought Alvarez was a good matchup for Dustin Poirier, and why he poses such interesting questions for Gaethje. But. Alvarez was millimeters away from being finished in the Poirier fight, and it was only his willpower which pulled him back. I think the years of wars are catching up to him. In the end, Gaethje is likely going to walk face-first into Eddie's traps. Are they still potent enough to take him out before Alvarez gets chewed up by leg kicks, or just outlasted by the bigger, younger, tougher man? Justin Gaethje by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: Every time I’m absolutely sure that Justin Gaethje will win this fight, I remember all the improbably fights that Eddie Alvarez has won just by being hellaciously tough enough to withstand a brutal assault (it’s a lot). I’m still picking Gaethje, because Alvarez’s style makes him really prone to getting chewed up by leg kicks, and Gaethje throws them better than most. I also know, to date, that when just the right shots land, Alvarez can be KO’d. I don’t yet know that about Gaethje. Alvarez is otherwise technically cleaner standing, so he’ll likely get his chance to rally, but when he does, I think Gaethje will be ready and waiting. Justin Gaethje via KO, Round 2.
Staff picking Alvarez: Bissell, Victor
Staff picking Gaethje: Nick, Mookie, Davies, Anton, Ram, Phil, Zane, Dayne, Stephie
Tecia Torres vs. Michelle Waterson
Anton Tabuena: Both enjoy Karate style kicks, but I believe Waterson is better on the feet. Tecia might be the better wrestler, but Waterson will probably have better submissions. It’s a good fight that can go either way, but I think it’s Waterson with the slight edge. Michelle Waterson by Decision.
Mookie Alexander: Torres is a better striker than given credit for and I also don’t think Waterson is going to win the physical matchups against the “Tiny Tornado.” Waterson can chain together submissions quite well, but I believe Torres will fend those off and do enough to consistently win rounds. Tecia Torres by unanimous decision.
Ryan Davies: The first fight of the PPV could easily be for the unofficial UFC atomweight belt. Both of these pint sized pugilists come from a traditional martial arts background, but also train at super camps ATT and Jackson/Wink, so you can be assured they will be prepared for any style of fight. Because their style is so similar, I go to experience, size and strength of competition which all point towards Waterson. Waterson Split Decision
Victor Rodriguez: More people should be hyped for this fight. Waterson’s striking is disciplined and well controlled, while Tecia is surprisingly good at using range by darting in and out while being the smaller opponent in most of her fights. Torres has a good clinch game and decen takedowns, but Waterson’s ability to chain submission attempts is probably the absolute best in her division right now. I doubt either one gets the finish, and Tecia’s style may be more suited to win rounds. Waterson should be able to snatch a submission late, but I have to go with the smarter choice. Tecia Torres by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: This fight should be fun, but I do favour Torres quite strongly. She's traditionally been a small strawweight, but Waterson is a former atomweight. Torres is a more accurate and busier puncher, with more efficient footwork and much more consistent wrestling. She should debatably be undefeated in her pro career, with a good case for having beaten Rose. Waterson's main advantage is that she is a far more dynamic submission threat- Torres is an inveterate phase-shifter who could conceivably Scoggins her way into a choke, but Tecia Torres by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Michelle Waterson is a fighter who looks technically amazing until you watch her fight for more than 30 seconds. A really cool kicking game, and sharp single punches break down into poor positioning and a lack of defensive awareness. An aggressive sub-hunting grappling game ends up with her getting out-positioned and out-worked by women it seems like she should have clear advantages over. Add in that she just doesn’t have much power to her game, and Waterson really needs to get just the right moment to win top flight bouts at strawweight. And whatever you may think of Torres as a low power volume striker and position heavy, grinding wrestler, she rarely leaves openings for opponents to exploit. I won’t be surprised if Waterson catches her back at some point, briefly, or throws up a nice armbar, but I think most of this bout will be her getting out-worked standing and on the mat. Tecia Torres by decision.
Staff picking Torres: Bissell, Mookie, Victor, Zane, Phil, Dayne, Stephie
Staff picking Waterson: Nick, Davies, Anton, Ram
Paul Felder vs. Charles Oliveira
Anton Tabuena: This is yet another fight on the card that guarantees fireworks either way. Felder is the safer pick, but I think he may fall for some of Oliveira’s traps. Charles Oliveira by Submission.
Mookie Alexander: Either Oliveira finds a way to take Felder’s back or get him to the ground and subs him, or Felder just rocks his world with his powerful clinch striking (not that Oliveira is a slouch in the clinch, mind you!). I go with the latter. Paul Felder by TKO, round 1.
Ryan Davies: Oliveira has grown up in the Octagon, a member of the UFC roster since he was 19, the 28 year old Brazilian has always had issues with hard striking larger opponents. Now back up at lightweight Oliveira has been tasked with taking on arguably the hardest striking 55er in Fielder. Oliveira will need to pull guard or immediately drop to butt scoot and do whatever it takes to get this to the ground. Chances are he will it a heavy blow while breaking a clinch and remain on the outside of the top 15. Felder TKO 1st
Victor Rodriguez: Oliveira is such a talented fighter, but his shifting between the striking and grappling portions of the fight has been something of a problem. Felder doesn’t really have that problem, nor is he less likely to have the kind of mental lapses that Oliveira typically suffers in his losses. Felder should be smart enough to avoid submission bait from Charles’ guard and keep a varied and composed striking game standing. Paul Felder by decision.
Zane Simon: If Paul Felder can be proactive in the clinch, maintain range as much as possible, and just generally hang tough for a round or so, he can win this. But the emphasis is on “can.” Oliveira is an exceptionally solid fighter offensively just about everywhere, but he’s shown a tendency to be somewhat breakable if the fight stops going his way. Felder has the power to put him out, if Oliveira decides he’s no longer invested in winning. However, Felder’s tendency to let opponents dictate clinch positioning and pace mean that Oliveira will very likely close Felder down and get him to the ground early. If that happens, I gotta take Charles Oliveira by submission, round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: I'm of two minds about this fight. Oliveira is an incredibly underrated offensive wrestler, in part because he simply does not care about failure. There is no position he's particularly scared of falling into, so he'll fling himself at his opponent like an octopus and latch on to whatever they give him. Unlike, say, Maia, his kryptonite hasn't been defensive wrestling but people who tap him for his over-aggression. Conversely, if there's something that Felder has struggled with, it's been dynamic offense which often just throws him right off his own aggressive game. I'll take Felder with a lot of trepidation to survive some early scares. But if Chucky Olives can take out a massive, physical lightweight like Felder then he really should just give up on that ridiculous idea of ever going back to 145. Paul Felder by TKO, round 3.
Staff picking Felder: Bissell, Mookie, Davies, Victor, Ram, Phil, Stephie
Staff picking Oliveira: Nick, Anton, Zane, Dayne
Alex Oliveira vs. Yancy Medeiros
Mookie Alexander: A great fight. Medeiros is so fun to watch, and Oliveira’s skills have really progressed over the course of his career. Both men have settled in at welterweight, and in Medeiros’ case I believe he used to be a heavyweight. My problem with Medeiros is that he’s so bad defensively that potent offensive strikers can really put him to the sword, and Cowboy’s wipeout of Ryan LaFlare really was an eye-opener as to how far he’s come along. Alex Oliveira by KO, round 2.
Ryan Davies: In my opinion this is the odds on favorite for fight of the night. Both of these guy leave everything in the ring and never take a step backwards. I will give the slight edge to Cowboy who has more tools to get the job done. Medeiros is the better boxer, but not by much and Oliveira is the better kicker and has a lethal Thai clinch. It will be close and leave the crowd on their feet. Cowboy Split Decision
Victor Rodriguez: Cowboy’s Muay Thai and durability will make or break this fight, and Medeiros is going to have a long night here. Medeiros will have a strength disadvantage and is a less explosive athlete, which means he’ll have to rely on cardio. Problem is, Oliveira’s got a decent gas tank barring a bad weight cut. Alex grinds it out on this one and staves off submission attempts. Alex Oliveira by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Oliveira is tremendously talented. He's a natural counterpuncher, grasps leverage at a crude but intuitive level, and understands how (and more crucially when) to move back and forth between the two phases, while being immensely strong and durable. Medeiros is offensively gifted but lacks Oliveira's sheer physical firepower, and is defensively as porous as a sieve. Alex Oliveira by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: There are just too many things Medeiros has trouble handling for me to pick him here. He’s durable, but incredibly hittable, especially since he always seems surprised by whatever his opponent throws at him. His offensive striking is good and technical in short bursts but can be marked by inactivity and by wild exchanges if things aren’t clicking for him. All of which makes Medeiros a fighter who is often losing right up until he breaks a less durable opponent, or (when lacking the durability edge) just losing. Alex Oliveira via TKO, Round 3.
Staff picking Oliveira: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Davies, Victor, Anton, Ram, Phil, Zane, Dayne, Stephie
Staff picking Medeiros:
Drakkar Klose vs. David Teymur
Ryan Davies: The MMA Lab’s Drakkar Klose is being tasked with his second consecutive matchup with a high level striker. Klose narrowly defeated Marc Diakiese via split decision this past July. While Teymur lacks the explosiveness of Diakiese, his fundamentals and technique surpass the flashy Brit’s. Klose will need to get in close and make this ugly, but he has the strength and overall skill set to make this a tough night for the TUF 22 standout. Klose Unanimous Decision
Victor Rodriguez: I love this fight. Klose is a great wrestler that loves to test himself against strikers. Teymur has less mobility than Klose’s last opponent, but he makes up for it with wily firefights and decent power in his hands. Klose should be able to work his way inside to nail the inevitable takedown and tenderize Teymur on the ground. War Perfume. Dramatic Klose by TKO.
Phil Mackenzie: What do you do when two young fighters upset your up-and-comers? Apparently you throw them at each other to see which one is the real deal. Hard times in the 155. Drakkar Klose the bounty hunter turned intergalactic crimelord proved his durability, resourcefulness and toughness when he rigged his ship's engines into a resonance bomb to shatter the crystalline heart of Aze the Star Eater beat Marc Diakiese. Teymur has much less of a tendency to try and reset or fight on his terms than Diakiese does: he simply throws furious head shots or clinch knees to the body if crowded. The Lab tends to be a camp which is great at training interstitial skills and confidence, but aggressive Muay Thai is traditionally tough for them. Klose's trump card remains his cybernetic eye, which unbeknownst to anyone else contains the last living fragment of Aze's heart wrestling, but Teymur has shown impressive takedown defense. David Teymur via unanimous decision.
Zane SImon: I came away from the Diakiese fight with the feeling that Klose is a legit, good prospect, and with the feeling that the biggest reason he won that fight is that Diakiese really hasn’t worked hard enough on all the small parts of his game. Klose was often able to punish Diakiese simply because Diakiese didn’t have an answer to pressure that wasn’t “throw a jumping wheel kick” or “wing the hardest overhand you can” or “go for the huge slam.” Teymur has those answers, as he showed in spades by beating Lando Vannata, in a similar display of a well schooled technical fighter against an exciting talent who hasn’t got a lot of depth yet. And to that end, I think Teymur will have the answers for Klose at range, where he’s definitely the better striker, in the clinch, where Klose can be a bit grinding, and with his wrestling, where Klose is very good, but not unstoppably elite. David Teymur by decision.
Staff picking Klose: Davies, Ram
Staff picking Teymur: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Victor, Anton, Phil, Zane, Dayne, Stephie
Cortney Casey vs. Felice Herrig
Ryan Davies: Casey has the strength advantage in most of her fights and it will be no different in this top-10 showdown. However she often nullifies her strength edge and choses to strike with smaller women. If she takes this fight to the ground it his hers to lose, but if she decides to trade with Herrig she will lose to the kickboxer who will outpoint her with well timed counters and body kicks. Herrig Unanimous Decision
Victor Rodriguez: Herrig really isn’t getting the respect she deserves for having good striking and a much more evolved wrestling game. Casey may have a bit of a wrestling advantage, but not by much. Herrig’s striking and movement should be the main thing to look out for, especially leg and body kicks as she picks away at Casey. Felice Herrig by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: I've truly enjoyed Herrig's evolution over the last few years. From flailing kickboxer to clinch grinder, to legitimately well-rounded and skilled martial artist. Similarly, Casey has seemed to figure out her own high pace, rangy game, and how to deflect her opponent's offense for just long enough that her torrent of punches and attacks off her back don't get disrupted. I still think Herrig's improved counterpunching as well as her increasingly excellent wrestling are the two factors which push me towards her, but this is a sleeper of a great fight on a stellar card. Felice Herrig by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Until she’s fixed the problem, it’s going to be hard to pick Cortney Casey against anyone who can wrestle well. Aguilar had a clear path to victory if she had been able to force the issue on the ground at all, as she got Casey down at will all fight, but couldn’t get past her guard. I don’t think Herrig will have that problem, as she’s always been a very decent scrambling grappler (more so than JAG’s positional lockdown game). Herrig’s also shown a lot more faith in her boxing lately, and just general overall composure. My guess is she spends a lot of time on top of Casey on her way to a rear naked choke win. Felice Herrig via sub, round 2.
Staff picking Casey: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Anton
Staff picking Herrig: Davies, Victor, Ram, Phil, Zane, Dayne, Stephie
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Sabah Homasi
Ryan Davies: Alhassan’s seven first round knockouts have turned the judo black belt into a all out brawler. If he implements the clinch and works for takedowns, he could ride out an easy victory in this fight. But all signs point to him trading on the feet with Sabah who possesses the superior technical boxing. Alhassan’s right is thunderous, but Homasi will be prepared for it and get the better of a crowd pleasing melee. Homasi TKO 1st
Zane Simon: I want to pick Homasi here. He’s the more well rounded, diverse striker and wrestler, and he’s got the inside line on how to prepare for Alhassan from his teammate Omari Akhmedov. But, he’s also 100% a live by the sword, die by the sword fighter. He’s only won one decision in his career, a split, and only been to decision in one of his 6 losses. Eventually, that means I just can’t trust him to not get lit up at some point in the fight. Alhassan has been durable so far, even if he’s an almost entirely one-sided fighter with a limited gas tank. Even if Homasi survives early, he’s had trouble surviving late. Abdul Razak Alhassan via KO, Round 3.
Phil Mackenzie: Homasi is a bit more technical, Alhassan is more physically gifted, but honestly this is a complete toss-up between two guys who are going to come out and punch each other in the face as hard as they can before gassing. Alhassan knocks people out more often and has never been knocked out himself. Despite not fighting very much, his record is surprisingly solid. Abdul Razak Alhassan by KO, round 1.
Staff picking Alhassan: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Anton, Ram, Zane, Dayne, Phil, Stephie
Staff picking Homasi: Davies, Victor
Jeremy Kimball vs. Dominick Reyes
Ryan Davies: These heavy handed 205 prospects are both coming off of impressive first round knockouts in their previous Octagon bouts. At 6’0” Kimball is an undersized light heavyweight to Reyes’s lanky 6’4” frame. Kimball will look to get inside and land “The Grizzly” (his trademarked standing hammerfist behind the ear). Reyes is the much more polished striker with the superior physical build. Kimball’s chin is solid but he has a bad habit of pulling out of exchanges with his chin straight in the air. Reyes will eventually turn his lights out with a left high kick. Reyes Knockout 2nd
Zane Simon: Kimball likely just isn’t athletic enough to beat other legit athletes at 205 lbs. He’s fast and accurate and funky, but anyone who is fast enough to match strikes with him is going to land the more damaging shot. Reyes is a huge powerhouse, so I have to go with him here. Dominick Reyes via KO, round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: Dominick Reyes is likely going to get drawn into an ugly sludge match at some point in his UFC career. Is it going to be here? I don't think so. Kimball enjoys a firefight, and I think Reyes likely indulges him. Dominick Reyes by KO, round 2.
Staff picking Kimball: Bissell
Staff picking Reyes: Nick, Mookie, Victor, Anton, Ram, Phil, Zane, Dayne, Stephie
Allen Crowder vs. Justin Willis
Ryan Davies: “Pretty Boy” and “Big Pretty” will be battling for the unofficial title of prettiest man in the heavyweight division. Willis is not an ideal opponent for Crowder’s debut - his smaller stature gives him a lower center of gravity making him a difficult man to take down. On top of that he trains with cardio freak wrestlers Cain Velasquez and Daniel Cormier, making a battle of attrition a low percentage path to victory. Crowder will clinch Willis against the cage early and lose steam when the takedowns do not materialize. Willis will win the standup battle with his southpaw striking and take home his second W in the Octagon. Willis, Unanimous Decision
Zane Simon: My guess is that Willis is just too big and controlled for Crowder’s jack of all trades style to work. If Crowder can get takedowns, however, then the fight changes dramatically. Justin Willis via decision.
Phil Mackenzie: For a UFC debut, the best thing to assume is that everyone who isn't a hyper-dynamic destroyer is going to get dragged into an ugly clinch war. In that case, Willis has the more stable game and the in-cage and gym experience to survive a fight which will likely be a bit of a slog. Justin WIllis via unanimous decision.
Staff picking Crowder: Bissell, Dayne
Staff picking Willis: Nick, Mookie, Davies, Victor, Anton, Ram, Zane, Stephie
Amanda Cooper vs. Angela Magana
Anton Tabuena: I’m surprised she even lasted this long, but this will probably end up as Magana’s last UFC bout. Amanda Cooper by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: Why? Amanda Cooper by unanimous decision.
Ryan Davies: You have to give Magana credit where credit is due, she has not won a professional fight since 2011, yet the fans want to see her fight. Magana regained the national spotlight when she started a Twitter beef with Cyborg and then offered her face as a sacrificial speed bag when the two met at the fighters retreat. “Your Majesty” may of talked her way into another fight, but she is still not a good fighter. Cooper picks up where Cyborg left off, teeing off on Magana’s sassy melon, before choking her out. Cooper RNC 2nd
Victor Rodriguez: Magana’s another fighter that doesn’t get the props she deserves. Sure, her UFC outings haven’t been great, but she’s got a long record against tough competition and a really great submission game. Cooper’s a great athlete, but she’s still raw and largely reliant on her athleticism. Magana’s had a lot of time to work on her striking, but should really get the job done on the ground against a less experienced fighter. Angela Magana by armbar, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Raw vs faded is always a difficult choice to make. When do the two paths intersect? In the end I think this plays out like an infinitely inferior version of the Maia-Covington dynamic. Cooper isn't a measurably good striker, but she's an enthusiastic one who can keep a pace past one round. Amanda Cooper by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I can’t pick Magana against anyone who has a mediocre idea of how to fight and a solid physical advantage over her. That means I can’t pick her over Cooper, even if Cooper is really really beatable. Amanda Cooper by decision.
Staff picking Cooper: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Davies, Anton, Zane, Dayne, Phil, stephie
Staff picking Magana: Victor, Ram