Diggin’ Deep on UFC Sao Paulo: Machida vs. Brunson - FS2 prelim preview
Get the inside scoop of the televised prelims from UFC Sao Paulo, featuring a scrap between welterweight up-and-comers Niko Price and Vicente Luque.
The televised prelims of UFC Sao Paulo this weekend doesn’t offer a lot in terms of high-profile contests. None of the combatants are ranked. The only one who ever has burst into the rankings – Hacran Dias – employs a style that drives fans away rather than bringing them in. However, aside from the Dias contest, all of these fights should make for compelling television with all the combatants – yes, even Dias – showing the potential to improve their current status significantly. I don’t want to make any promises as it has been proven time and again that anything can happen in MMA – good or bad -- but I’d expect them to be worthwhile.
The televised prelims begin on FS2 at 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT on Saturday.
Vicente Luque (11-6-1) vs. Niko Price (10-0, 1 NC), Welterweight
Price is making a hell of a name for himself as has secured two first round finishes since coming into the UFC with a third win negated thanks to a drug test failure in Texas. The substance he failed for: marijuana. Yeah…not much of a performance enhancer if you ask me…or the Diaz brothers for that matter.
A big part of Price’s success simply comes with him being a tough SOB, showing a willingness to walk through punches and kicks to land his particularly powerful brand of offense. In other words, his defense isn’t great. His lanky frame isn’t easy to deal with in the clinch either, threatening with trip takedowns and a variety of strikes in short distance. Most promising: Price showed better range management in his most recent outing, disposing of Alan Jouban with a slick counter right hand off a naked kick. Though his reputation is that of a striker, Price made waves in his UFC debut with his solid top control and arm-triangle choke of Brandon Thatch.
Luque had a four-fight win streak snapped against Leon Edwards in his last appearance. The loss shouldn’t erase all the good vibes he built up in that streak, securing finishes in each appearance with two KO’s and two subs apiece. Luque began smoothly transitioning from one phase to another, making those that were hoping to avoid his submission grappling – his original base – pay with his powerful and improved hands. Upgrading his timing is another big reason why his striking took off, making opponents pay with his counter combinations. Though his takedown defense is still a glaring weakness, he can make his opponents pay by threatening with a choke should they leave their neck exposed.
There may be some bad blood between these two as Price trains at ATT while Luque comes from the Combat Club via the Blackzilians. Perhaps some of the beef is squashed now that Glenn Robinson is out of the equation, but those type of feelings die hard. Most see Price as the prospect in this one, but Luque is younger by a couple of years. There would be zero surprises should Luque catch Price in a choke or drop him off the counter given Price’s aggression, but Price has also shown durability and resilience. It’s a close pick, but Price is my choice. Price via decision
Antonio Carlos Junior (9-2, 1 NC) vs. Jack Marshman (22-6), Middleweight
Given the amount of experience these two have, it’s hard to refer to them as prospects. However, it is safe to say that neither should be near their ceiling quite yet. It isn’t far-fetched to say the winner could earn themselves a shot against a ranked opponent in their next contest.
Carlos’ amount of overall experience is a bit deceiving, but when you’ve fought eight times in the UFC, you’re experienced enough. The UFC has coddled him a bit, giving him favorable contests in hopes of providing him with experience to develop his considerable physical talents before he washed out. It isn’t just his athleticism that had many singing his praises as a future contender; he’s a former world champion in BJJ. While there are some in the sport capable of finding an opponent’s back faster than Carlos, none are as big as he is. Though he has power in his punches, he’s still a raw striker, even with the steady progress he has made since his UFC entry. Another issue for Carlos has been to panic when things don’t go his way early, often leading to him gassing. He has avoided doing so recently, but he also hasn’t been pushed in those contests.
Unless he finds himself on the ground early, Marshman is sure to push Carlos. Though he has a deserved reputation as a brawler, Marshman actually throws some technical boxing combinations in the pocket. He keeps his jab out there constantly as he presses forward until he finds a range he is happy with to unload some powerful shots, his left hook in particular being dangerous. The problem with Marshman is that he ignores any semblance of defense, trusting too much in his chin and own offense to get the job done before his opponent can do him in. You ever heard the philosophy that the best defense is more offense? Marshman fits that to a tee.
The most jarring statistic in this contest: Marshman has never been submitted in his career. Considering his aversion to taking the fight to the ground himself and his inability to stuff takedowns, that’s more than a little bit shocking. If nothing else, it indicates he knows the basics of BJJ defense to keep from being submitted, but it is alarming seeing how much Magnus Cedenblad maneuvered him wherever he wanted on the mat. Given Carlos continues to show improvement in his own takedowns, this doesn’t bode well for the Welshman. Marshman could catch Carlos with a hard left and put an end to the contest early, but I’d bet Carlos either controls him to a boring decision or finds a way to make him tap. Carlos via submission, RD3
Hacran Dias (23-5-1) vs. Jared Gordon (13-1), Featherweight
There isn’t a more frustrating member of the featherweight roster than Dias. Possessing enough talent to regularly hang with the elite of the division, Dias tends to get inside of his own head time and again, resulting in a passive performance where he allows his opponents to steal away with a win. When his head is right, his low kicks are second only to teammate Jose Aldo. You might even be able to say the same thing about his takedown defense, showing a brilliant sprawl and good balance. Because of his reluctance to throw his hands, Dias has had to rely on his wrestling to secure wins, a proposition which at times has been good enough to get the W, but garners little adulation from the fans.
Aggression is something Gordon doesn’t have any issues with. Though he isn’t the most technical striker, Gordon has enough power in his fists and regularly uses the same motion to throw his power overhand as he does to shoot for his takedowns, making it difficult to know what’s coming. His shot isn’t particularly powerful, but like his standup, he keeps driving forward which usually results in him getting the fight to the ground where he can unleash his greatest strength: his ground-and-pound. Gordon is relentless in looking for the finish when he can begin raining down punches, often to the point where he threatens depleting his gas tank.
The biggest question is what Dias has been doing to improve himself during his one-year hiatus. If he has found a way to let his hands fly, he should easily be able to topple Gordon. Gordon’s standup is not as advanced as Andre Fili’s – Dias’ last opponent – nor does he have the same length possessed by Fili. That should allow Dias to be less reluctant to throw his fists and perhaps even open up with his low kicks. I realize all of this is very conditional, but Dias’ takedown defense should be enough to prevent Gordon from unleashing his ground-and-pound. Dias via decision
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (17-5) vs. Max Griffin (13-3), Welterweight
Though Dos Santos and Griffin are largely unknown to anyone other than hardcore fans, those who know these two can’t help but be excited by the fireworks that are expected to fly between these two. They may not be elite, but both love to stand and trade fisticuffs, often with thunderous results.
Dos Santos is the more established combatant, having four UFC contests under his belt with the last three of them being victories. An aggressive striker with a heavy reliance on kicks, Dos Santos proved he can win without his thudding kicks in his last appearance, keeping them to a minimum after Lyman Good took him down off a caught kick. Though he’s best known for throwing counters, he can be the aggressor when needed and has even shown the ability to hit the occasional takedown as a change of pace, a recent addition to his arsenal. One thing he hasn’t been able to fix since coming into the UFC: his takedown defense.
Fortunately for Dos Santos, Griffin isn’t much of a takedown threat himself. In favor of pushing the action, Griffin is an accurate striker with a lot of power in his punches. He’s a versatile enough striker that he can counter as well. Despite that, he’s at his best when he swarms, though it does tend to open him up to his biggest weakness: takedowns. Griffin has shown little in terms of his wrestling and grappling, survival skills largely being the extent of his ground game with a reliance on his athleticism in scrambling situation. He’s not a bad athlete, but not really anything special in that department either in terms of your average UFC fighter.
Both have shown sturdy chins, meaning picking this contest based on who has the weaker chin isn’t a possibility. Given his recent progress in his wrestling, Dos Santos is a slight favorite, but he’s hardly proven to be a consistent threat in that area either. What is really pushing me in favor of dos Santos was his ability to dig deep against Good, whereas Griffin was broken by Colby Covington’s repeated takedowns. Griffin can still catch Dos Santos, but you have to look at the intangibles when it comes to a contest of similarly talented strikers. Dos Santos via TKO, RD2