Diggin’ Deep on UFC Gdansk: Cerrone vs. Till - Prelim preview Part 2

Get the inside scoop on the second half of the UFC Gdansk prelims, including fan favorite Smilin’ Sam Alvey welcoming noted prospect Ramazan Emeev to the UFC.

Given it is an under-the-radar card, it’s no surprise that there is a high number of fighters making their UFC debut. There are seven in all with three of them being covered on this section of the previews. While none of them are particularly hyped – with several of them getting their shots as injury replacements – Ramazan Emeev would appear to be the prospect with the most potential, though his stock has dropped a little in the last few years. He’s also facing one of the more established veterans on the card in Sam Alvey, meaning victory is hardly assured. Regardless of how the Russian turns out, chances are strong that a future contender emerges from the card. There are seven opportunities for someone to develop into one after all.

The prelims begin at 11:30 AM ET/8:30 AM PT on Saturday on Fight Pass.

Marcin Held (22-7) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (8-1), Lightweight

Rarely do I applaud the UFC for bringing back a guy who has lost three fights in a row when the competition has been less than stellar, but I’m making an exception with Held. The former Bellator title challenger was robbed in one contest and was clearly winning another before a third-round KO derailed what had been an excellent performance up to that point. However, regardless of whether he loses this contest in a controversial manner, it is do-or-die for Held.

Largely thought of as a leglock specialist – he does have six submission wins via a variety of leg submissions – Held has slowly improved his wrestling to the point that he has been able to show off his grappling prowess from the top position with regularity. Smooth guard passes, strategically placed elbows, and back takes were on display in his last contest against Damir Hadzovic. However, he was knocked out cold with a brutal flying knee when he telegraphed his takedown. If Held can disguise his shots a bit, his relentless chain wrestling usually seems to get the fight to the mat, even if it takes more than one attempt. Though he isn’t a KO threat, Held has improved enough on the feet that he can hold his own at the very least.

He’ll need to do that against Haqparast, a 22-year-old who has scored KO/TKO stoppages in every one of his victories. Built like a brickhouse, Haqparast can be best described as a brawler, preferring to stand in the pocket, bite down on his mouth guard, and swing away. It’s no surprise the youngster is full of defensive holes, usually just covering up his head with his forearms rather than utilizing head movement or footwork. Though he does have some wrestling ability, Haqparast largely relies on his natural strength to throw the opposition to the ground and utilize brutal punches and elbows as he attempts to pick up the stoppage.

Some may declare Held as chinny after his last loss, but that was the first KO loss of his career. He’s typically been very durable and that knee would have stopped a truck. Held may end up eating a bit of damage from Haqparast early, but there are so many holes in Haqparast’s defense at this point that I struggle to see Held not being able to take advantage of that. Held may even be able to execute one of his of signature leglocks… Held via submission, RD1

Anthony Hamilton (15-8) vs. Adam Wieczorek (8-1), Heavyweight

Though Hamilton indicated that he was retiring following his loss to Daniel Spitz last month, the Freight Train is giving it one more go on short notice after Dmitriy Smolyakov pulled out a couple of weeks before the event.

His opponent, Wieczorek, is making his UFC debut after picking up a couple of quality wins in his last two appearances in the aftermath of running through a bunch of tomato cans. At 6'5", Wieczorek owns a long and lanky frame, though he is still figuring out how to use his limbs to attack from the outside. Instead, he prefers fighting in the clinch where he can wrack his opponents body with knees or look for a trip takedown. By UFC heavyweight standards, Wieczorek’s grappling is already above average, showing the ability to achieve mount with regularity and a knack for finding his opponent’s back. The problem will be not just whether he can get the fight to the ground, but keep it there against the larger breed of UFC heavyweights.

Hamilton is a great test to see if Wieczorek is up to par. The Jackson Wink rep has proven to be innately beatable, but occasionally pulls out a performance where he uses his massive girth to bully a smaller opponent from pillar to post. Hamilton can do a little bit of everything, usually resorting to attacking his opponent’s weakness. Given Wieczorek’s lack of traditional wrestling and standup defense, expect Hamilton to charge the youngster as he did against Damian Grabowski, unleashing a flurry of punches before looking for a takedown. Should he be unable to secure the early finish, Hamilton can surprise with his athleticism, showing the ability to score with a head kick. If the fight does go to the ground, Hamilton’s is very top heavy with a tendency to focus on working over his opponent’s body.

I don’t like this contest stylistically for the newcomer at all. Hamilton isn’t easy to get to the ground and typically does a good job of keeping himself out of bad spots when he does go to the mat. Sure, Hamilton is chinny, but Wieczorek is hardly a powerhouse and is insanely hittable. Though I have a gut feeling this contest proves to be an ugly and sluggish contest, I’ll go with Hamilton’s track record and say this one ends early…with him snapping his three-fight losing streak. Hamilton via TKO, RD1

Damian Stasiak (10-4) vs. Brian Kelleher (17-8), Bantamweight

Scrappy is the one word that could be used to describe both Stasiak and Kelleher. Neither are particularly athletic. Neither hit particularly hard. Neither would often be described as possessing the highest of fight IQ’s. Nonetheless, they are fun to watch and difficult to put to sleep.

Kelleher made some waves when he upset veteran mainstay Iuri Alcantara in Kelleher’s UFC debut. He fell back to earth when Marlon Vera submitted him in his next contest, but it established Kelleher as a threat to end a contest at any time. A pressure fighter who frequently switches his stance, Kelleher tends to swing wildly, leaving himself wide open to be hit. Fortunately, he has a tough chin, is very good at making adjustments, and is excellent at improvising on the fly. His guillotine choke submission over Alcantara is great proof of this as he casually grabbed a hold of Alcantara’s neck as the Brazilian finished off a takedown. A very short time later, the Brazilian tapped.

Stasiak is a karateka from Poland, but has rarely utilized his distance striking skills in the UFC. In fact, you’d think Stasiak’s background was that off a grappler given his willingness to go to the ground against anyone. Stasiak showed no hesitation taking renowned BJJ artist Pedro Munhoz to the ground in his last contest. Although he did come out on the short end of the stick, he held his own a was able to go the distance. He has developed an aggressive wrestling game that has only been held back by his lack of explosion as he has become a surprisingly technical shoot takedown artist. His lack of physicality hurts him on the ground too as he doesn’t offer much in his ground striking and doesn’t keep his opponent’s down for too long. Nonetheless, Stasiak is dangerous off his back and a solid scrambler.

This is a difficult contest to decipher. Kelleher has a knack for finding the finish while Stasiak offers a bit more of a technical approach. However, outside of a spinning back-kick catching his opponent, he isn’t much of a threat to finish a contest on the feet. Given it’s in his home country, I’ll favor the Pole in this one, even if I’m doing so with some hesitation. Stasiak via decision

Sam Alvey (31-9, 1 NC) vs. Ramazan Emeev (15-3), Middleweight

So long as he isn’t held back by a medical suspension, you can rest assured that Alvey will be willing to step into any middleweight contest that has lost a competitor. Seriously, can you name another established member on the roster who would be willing to go to Poland to fight when given notice less than two weeks before the event?

If this contest were based on being identifiable, Alvey would be an easy favorite as Emeev is making his UFC debut. Despite that, European fans know damn well who Emeev is as he has been one of the top 185ers. A pressure fighter who throws either single shots or short combinations with serious power, Emeev’s punches tend to come at odd angles. If his punches don’t land as he moves forward – and even if they do at times – he’s just as content to settle for clinching up and throwing a barrage of uppercuts or knees. His constant pressure makes it easy to disguise his takedown entries, usually a double-leg shot. He may struggle to finish his takedowns in the UFC as Emeev looks like he could potentially cut down to welterweight in a healthy manner.

Alvey’s skill set could prove problematic for the Dagestani. Aside from his well-established KO power, Alvey’s biggest strength is his takedown defense. Even as opponents have made greater attempts to get the hard-hitter to the ground, their success has been limited as Alvey tends to find his way back to his feet very quickly. On the feet, his tendency to wait for the perfect counter is just as well-known as his power, often resulting in tedious contests where his opponents attempt to pick him apart from the outside while Alvey does next to nothing. To be fair, he has increased his output in those situations to the point where he was the aggressor against Rashad Evans in his last appearance. However, even though it was enough to pick him up the win, Alvey looked out of his element moving forward.

If fighting on short notice doesn’t affect Alvey too badly – historically it hasn’t – I like his chances despite being a slight underdog. However, he’s never made a trip to Europe in his UFC stint, much less a short notice trip across the Atlantic. I do fear Emeev could end up like Alvey’s past opposition by not giving him anything to counter which results in neither competitor doing much, making this contest unwatchable. In part because I’m hoping otherwise, I say he doesn’t and ends up paying the price. Alvey via KO, RD2