UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio staff picks and predictions
Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Sunday’s UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio card in Glasgow, Scotland.
The Bloody Elbow staff has submitted its predictions for UFC Glasgow, and we do have a few people picking Santiago Ponzinibbio for the win over Gunnar Nelson. Tim Bissell, Phil Mackenzie, and Victor Rodriguez believe The Ponz will pull off the upset. Meanwhile, the majority of the staff believes Cynthia Calvillo is going to beat Scotland’s own Joanne Calderwood, who did miss weight by two pounds at Saturday’s weigh-ins.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he's going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Gunnar Nelson vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
Mookie Alexander: Ponzinibbio has really good striking, particularly a sharp jab and pretty solid power. Nelson has always been hittable but not too many guys have been able to seriously wobble him. Rick Story would be the obvious example, and with the benefit of hindsight, he’s a terrible stylistic matchup for Nelson. On the flip side, Gunnar has proven that he can crack. He dropped both Brandon Thatch and Alan Jouban before submitting them, and the Jouban finish in particular was a thing of beauty. I have my doubts that Ponzinibbio will be able to stay upright against Gunni. It only takes one instance for Nelson to get someone on the mat, pass your guard, take your back, and choke you out. Give me Gunnar Nelson by submission, round 3. Victor Rodriguez: I’m feeling reckless, and can’t really go against Ponzinibbio’s striking and speed. Not only that, but he can set up some very accurate combinations when he’s on his A-game. Gunnar’s grappling is otherworldly, but all fights start standing. Santiago Ponzinibbio by TKO.
Zane Simon: Ponzinibbio’s boxing game has come a long long way. His footwork and feints and movement have taken him from an exciting power puncher to a really difficult tactical matchup that top fighters have to pay real attention to. He’s also a decent wrestler and capable grappler. The thing is, that I’m just not sure his wrestling and grappling are deep enough or his dynamic athleticism otherworldly enough to make a complicated boxing approach work at the highest levels. The amount of time he’ll likely need to spend stepping in on Nelson to land shots make me feel pretty likely he gives Nelson opportunities to grab him. And from there, Ponzinibbio is an okay takedown defender, but not elite. Likely Nelson gets him to the ground and slaps on the submission (probably after eating a few hard shots). Gunnar Nelson by submission, Round 2.
Staff picking Nelson: Nick, Mookie, Ram, Fraser, Stephie, Zane
Staff picking Ponzinibbio: Bissell, Phil, Victor
Joanne Calderwood vs. Cynthia Calvillo
Mookie Alexander: Would’ve picked Calvillo without Calderwood’s weight miss, so that doesn’t factor too much for me. I don’t think Calvillo will have it easy on the feet against a better (but not very powerful) striker, but I don’t trust Calderwood’s defensive wrestling to hold-up. Calvillo also seems to be a really talented grappler, and I think that’s just going to completely overwhelm JoJo. Cynthia Calvillo by submission, round 2.
Victor Rodriguez: I get the momentum that Calvillo has, but much like the main event, I can’t see the striker being taken down that easily for the grappler to put on a clinic. Calderwood should be able to use her range and kicking game while stuffing takedowns from Calvillo’s rabid honey badger approach. Joanne Calderwood by decision.
Zane Simon: Calvillo’s last performance actually makes me less certain she can win this. If she just chooses to stand and work her striking against Calderwood for three rounds, Calderwood is the much more unpredictable and practiced striker of the two. However, Calderwood isn’t a finisher and often likes to mix in wrestling and grappling to fights she’s already winning at range. Given Calvillo’s preternatural backtake ability and already strong wrestling game, there’s just too many opportunities for Calderwood to set a foot wrong, even if she’s winning rounds right up to the point she loses. Cynthia Calvillo by submission, Round 3.
Staff picking Calderwood: Bissell, Ram, Victor
Staff picking Calvillo: Nick, Mookie, Phil, Fraser, Stephie, Zane
Paul Felder vs. Stevie Ray
Mookie Alexander: Don’t know how this will go. It should be fantastic viewing. I can easily see Felder losing this the same way he lost to Ross Pearson, and at this point Ray is better and more durable than Pearson. Felder is one of those “exciting, but sometimes he’s not” fighters who often lets bouts just drift away from him. Even the Cruickshank win was a contest he was losing until he got the third-round submission. My fear for Ray is that Felder’s cardio is way better than Joe Lauzon, and that Felder will be able to outwrestle him and beat him up from top position. Apart from that, I think Ray can win a moderately-paced kickboxing match and do enough to win. Felder has great, explosive moments, but Ray is more tactically sounds to me. Stevie Ray by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Felder is a fighter who has developed strategically while being mediocre tactically, and Ray is somewhat the other way around. Take their fight against Pearson, where Felder got gamed and Ray fought a veteran's fight. Thus, in a kickboxing match, I'd favour Ray. However, strategically Ray's biggest flaw (his wrestling) has remained unaddressed, and against Cruickshank etc Felder has shown a surprising willingness to attack with wrestling and top position grappling. Paul Felder by unanimous decision while the crowd goes boooo.
Victor Rodriguez: Ray’s grown on me for his super technical Muay Thai game and setups to keep his opponent guessing. Problem is, Felder’s game is more varied and he’s dealt with rangy fighters before. Not only that, but he can take a bunch of leg kicks and can really keep him on his back foot. Ray has a great style to beat a lot of guys in this division, but he’s going to get outworked and come up short. Paul Felder by decision.
Zane Simon: Ray has the right style to beat Felder. Keep him marching forward, pick him off with the occasional strike, make it a battle of footwork and space management. But, Ray isn’t great at that game. Against two guys made to fall apart against that style (Lauzon & Pearson) Ray struggled to pick up very narrow decisions. In part, because his footwork isn’t all that clean, and when he does step in to pick people off, he often has to get into a bit of a brawl before he can step back out to range. Against someone bigger than Pearson & Lauzon, more powerful, with a better gas tank (than Lauzon at least), and with a fantastic chin, I just don’t think Ray can execute cleanly enough to win rounds while on the retreat. Paul Felder by decision.
Staff picking Felder: Bissell, Phil, Ram, Victor, Zane
Staff picking Ray: Nick, Mookie, Fraser, Stephie
Phil Mackenzie: This fight seems like a lesser version of Marshman's bout against Cedenblad: a big, tall kickboxer / grappler who is nonetheless not defensively bulletproof and will probably fall down go boom real good, like if tagged by an overhand right. Jack Marshman by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: Janes is the most hittable fighter in the UFC. If he can’t rush Marshman and hurt him immediately, he’s going to get hit hard and often by a much slicker puncher. Jack Marshman by KO, Round 2.
Staff picking Janes: Bissell
Staff picking Marshman: Nick, Mookie, Phil, Ram, Fraser, Stephie, Victor, Zane
Paul Craig vs. Khalil Rountree
Mookie Alexander: Welp. It’s Rountree’s power striking but untrustworthy TDD against Craig’s very untrustworthy striking but good submission game. Something has to give. I’m not that high on Rountree and Craig has a crafty enough ground skills to tap Khalil from the top or bottom. Paul Craig by submission, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Ghhh. Against Jolly, Rountree showed he's been seriously training TDD triggers, throwing his hips back out of the way, and fighting to get away, while also being able to land a fight-ending knee. I don't think Craig's clunky striking and clinch-based takedowns will work against that, and if Rountree can line up shots he can melt the hometown fighter. However, if this hits the mat Rountree is likely toast and I don't trust his gas tank at all. Khalil Rountree by TKO, round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: It’s not that I don’t trust Craig’s striking, I just trust Rountree’s even more. Especially when you consider how vicious his followups are. Cardio may be a factor, but I’m going to side with the stronger, better athlete here. Khalil Rountree by TKO.
Zane Simon: This fight is just a box of unanswered questions that likely remain unanswered after it’s over. Has Rountree’s defensive wrestling improved? What about Craig’s wrestling? Have either of them improved their cardio at all? Is Craig still immensely hittable? My feeling is that Craig survives an early scare, both guys get tired, and Craig drags the fight to the mat where he picks up a submission. Paul Craig by submission, Round 2.
Staff picking Craig: Bissell, Mookie, Ram, Zane
Staff picking Rountree: Nick, Phil, Fraser, Stephie, Victor
James Mulheron vs. Justin Willis
Phil Mackenzie: In looking at Mulheron's quick-paced fat guy style, the question is: is he a Daniel Cormier, or a Sean O'Connell? Spoiler: he's probably the latter. Willis is a massive, powerful heavyweight from the best big-guy camp in the world and he's likely going to squish Mulheron. Justin Willis by TKO, round 1.
Zane Simon: I really want Mulheron to win this a lot. He’s got a fascinating boxing game for the heavyweight division. Lightning quick hands, lots of body punching. But he’s small, probably only fighting at HW because he’s carrying weight he shouldn’t be, and not a power puncher. Willis’ wrestling and natural power likely see him through to getting a TKO, possibly after both men are already exhausted. Justin Willis via TKO, Round 2.
Staff picking Mulheron:
Staff picking Willis: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Phil, Ram, Fraser, Stephie, Victor, Zane
Bobby Nash vs. Danny Roberts
Phil Mackenzie: Big question is how much Nash was affected by the octagon jitters last time out, because I do think he is the better athlete of the two and possesses the higher ceiling. However, a big part of him hurting Leech was simply Jingliang getting overconfident, because Nash was not winning the technical kickboxing match before then. Roberts is much less likely to wade into big countershots, and is the more careful, cleaner striker. On the other hand, Roberts doesn't have JingLiang's excellent TDD. Should be fun. Danny Roberts by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Both guys are freakishly long boxers with good power. Nash has a wrestling background he never uses, and Roberts has a surprising grappling game that he can pull out when wrestled. The core here though is that Nash runs forward into punches with both hands out, and Roberts is a much much more technical boxer. Danny Roberts by decision.
Staff picking Nash: Ram, Stephie, Victor
Staff picking Roberts: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Fraser, Zane
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Neil Seery
Mookie Alexander: Would love for Seery to end his career on a high note, and I’ll be rooting for him, but I can’t bring myself to pick him against an up-and-comer like Pantoja. Better athlete, faster striker, and is capable of outmuscling Seery in the clinch and in grappling exchanges. Alexandre Pantoja by unanimous decision. Phil Mackenzie: Stylistically quite winnable for Seery, but I think Pantoja is just too young, tough and aggressive. He'll kick a ton from the outside and then shoot silly takedowns and try and jump on Seery, and I just don't think Seery can keep up at this stage in his career with a young fighter who consistently pushes a physical game. Alexandre Pantoja by unanimous decision. Victor Rodriguez: Wait, I thought management liked Seery? Pantoja’s grappling is way slicker with cleaner technique and more chained submission attempts, and his body kicks should put a heavy toll on Seery’s cardio. Pantoja’s not just younger, he fights smart is more capable of using his striking to clinch and engage from there. Alexandre Pantoja by submission.
Zane Simon: In part, I just want to see Seery win, but I also don’t have that much faith in Pantoja’s style of fighting against veteran talent. On the feet he’s a very willing, wide open brawler. He throws a lot of strikes, and has speed, but leaves defense behind, and doesn’t put that much interest into accuracy. He’s a great scrambling grappler, but he’s not the best wrestler, often depending on opponents to engage him in scrambles to win fights there. If Seery can stay out of trouble early, I think his bull-headed consistent inside striking game can see him take this fight down the stretch. Or at the very least, that’s what I’ll be rooting for. Neil Seery by decision.
Staff picking Pantoja: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Phil, Ram, Fraser, Stephie, Victor
Staff picking Seery: Zane
Galore Bofando vs. Charlie Ward
Phil Mackenzie: Like Pendred before him, Ward seems like an SBG plodder who is going to hit (has hit?) an athletic barrier in the UFC. Bofando, conversely, has athleticism, well, galore. Ward starts relatively slowly, and I sort of expect Bofando to just pick him off with something bizarre and Diakiesque early. Or knee him in the head while grounded for a DQ loss. He likes doing that, too. Galore Bofando by TKO, round 1. Victor Rodriguez: I want to pick Ward here, but I keep feeling that Bofando’s going to bust out some crazy blitz and rock Ward coming in. Either that or some weird head kick. It’s whatever Galore Bofando by TKO.Zane Simon: Bofando’s complete disinterest in any sort of technical boxing game, as well as his love of giving up takedowns, make me feel like as long as Ward can come forward with power strikes and get clinches, he can win this. Charlie Ward by KO, Round 1.
Staff picking Bofando: Bissell, Nick, Phil, Stephie, Victor
Staff picking Ward: Mookie, Ram, Fraser, Zane
Danny Henry vs. Daniel Teymur
Phil Mackenzie: Limited fight tape and somewhat underwhelming competition make this a tricky one to pick. Henry reminds me a little of Johns, below: pretty athletic and fearless, a lot of offense standing, enthusiastically pursues the takedown, not a lot of defense. Daniel Teymur, unsurprisingly, recalls his brother, just with a bit less craft: angry counter one-two, leg kick, and so on. Without much to go on, it seems safer to pick the guy who has fought (and trained with) comparable athletes, and who seems a better kickboxing technician. Daniel Teymur by TKO, round 2.
Victor Rodriguez: Both of these guys are finishers, and there’s virtually no way this fight can be bad. I have to give Teymur the advantage here for having more solid leg kicks and mixing things up better than Henry. Daniel Teymur by decision.
Zane Simon: I think Henry’s lack of next level athleticism will really cost him with his bolt upright striking style and reliance on what doesn’t seem like an overly impressive wrestling/grappling game. Teymur, like his brother, is a practiced power kickboxer. He should be able to catch Henry wading in. Daniel Teymur by TKO, Round 2.
Staff picking Henry:
Staff picking Teymur: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Phil, Ram, Fraser, Stephie, Victor, Zane
Brett Johns vs. Albert Morales
Phil Mackenzie: Thought I'd be picking Johns here, but I'm really not sure how well his lack of defense and reliance on a high guard plays with Morales' ability to sling hard, quick combinations straight down the middle, which he was able to do against Almeida and Perez who have similar defensive tendencies. His takedown defense is also somewhat underrated. Johns' dipping uppercut is definitely one to watch out for, as is his incredible heart and will to win, but I have a sneaking suspicion Morales chews him up from the outside. Albert Morales by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: My guess is that Johns’ willingness to step forward and sling heat in the pocket gets Morales to dump his out-boxing game and brawl. In part that should set up Johns’ relentless takedown game, and in part it may get Morales to burn his suspect gas tank. Both of which should allow Johns to build momentum as the fight goes on. Brett Johns by decision.
Staff picking Johns: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Victor, Zane
Staff picking Morales: Phil, Ram, Fraser
Phil Mackenzie: Lemos is a great (if undersized) physical talent. In particular, her ability to hit brutal leg kicks is one to keep an eye on against the heavy-footed Smith. However, I think Smith can just keep her jab and her own leg kicks on Lemos and wear the debutant down over three rounds, even if she gets hurt. Interesting fight though. Leslie Smith by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Don’t think for a second that this got easier for Smith because Lina Lansberg pulled out. Lemos trains with Iuri Alcantara and his brother Ildemar Alcantara. She’s scrappy and hits hard while undefeated with a draw on her record. All of her wins are finishes including her last one, where she showed some catlike reflexes. Smith is a veteran and should be able to outpoint her due to having a style more suited for winning rounds, but she needs to drag her into deep water by outlasting Lemos until late into the fight. The best she can do until then is use her aggressive guard game off her back if she’s there or pin Lemos against the cage to wear her down. Big change for an upset here, but I’m sticking with Leslie here. Leslie Smith by late submission.
Zane Simon: Lemos is a fun prospect and will make this a war, but I don’t think she’s ready for Smith’s size and pace. Smith likely wades through some serious damage, but if she can catch Lemos up in the clinch she can probably wear her out and slow her down on the way to a decision win. Leslie Smith by decision.
Staff picking Lemos:
Staff picking Smith: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Phil, Ram, Fraser, Stephie, Victor, Zane