The 2 Year Plan: How to Build a "Big 3" Part Deux
So now that we've seen the exit interviews and heard of our front office's desires to bring stars back to the Lakers, how do we get there? No, seriously. Realistically, how do we get there?
Step 1: A 46.9% "Coin Flip"
The big first step is in the hands of the basketball gods at the May 16th lottery. We know the odds: we have a 46.9% chance at keeping our top 3 pick. We know what's at stake: either we keep the 2017 top 3 pick + the 2019 first round pick OR we keep the 2017 33rd pick and get the 2018 first round pick. To me, the 2018 and 2019 first round picks more or less cancel each other out. It really comes down to pick #1-3 or #33. For this scenario, we need that top 3 pick.
Step 2: Trade for Jimmy Butler
This time, rather than dreaming of Lonzo or Markelle leading the charge for the baby Lakers, let's package the top 3 pick in a trade package: Top 3 pick + Julius Randle + Jordan Clarkson for Jimmy Butler. Two simple reasons for putting Randle as our high-value youngster in that deal:
- Randle is on the last year of his contract. He will require a semi-large payday in the summer of 2018, which would occupy too much cap space to sign a big time free agent at that time.
- As much as he's improved this season, Randle is the most flawed of our three lottery picks. At times this season, he's displayed a lack of effort. Even when he is engaged, he is an unreliable shooter and defender. His lack of elite wingspan has been talked about a lot, with good reason. When you don't have length to make up for mistakes, you have to execute near flawless defense to be above average. In the 90's, we saw Kevin Willis become an above average defender despite his "T-Rex" arms. Examples like Willis are few and far between. Fare thee well Jules.
- 1a D'Angelo Russell $5.56m
- 2a Jimmy Butler $17.5m
- 3a Brandon Ingram $5.52m
- 4a Luol Deng $17.19m
- 5a Timofey Mozgov $15.28m
- 1b Tyler Ennis $2.6m
- 2b Luke Kennard $1.3m
- 3b Corey Brewer $7.58m
- 4b Larry Nance $1.47m
- 5b Ivica Zubac $1.31m
- David Nwaba $1.3m
- Tarik Black $6.2m
- Thomas Robinson $1.3m
- Training Camp Invite Player $1.3m
$85.4m ($15.59m under the $101m cap)
The addition of Jimmy Butler and the additional seasoning on Russell and Ingram should net the Lakers around 44 wins, which should be good enough for a playoff berth and a quick exit. This clear progress would be a huge validation for the front office; but still leaves a lot of room for improvement.
Step 5: 2018 Free Agency
Okay, Paul George. You said you wanted to sign with the Lakers? Here's your chance. With $19.2m in expiring or non-guaranteed money (Brewer, Black, Ennis, Nwaba, and Robinson) the Lakers should have $32.56m to spend in the summer of 2018 vs a projected $107m cap. That should be enough to sign one $32m max guy. If we need to free up even more cap space for a $36m super-max or designated player, we could stretch the final two years of Mozgov's contract over 5 seasons and free up an additional $9.45m. The list of potential targets in 2018 is long: Paul George, Russell Westbrook, DeMarcus Cousins, Brook Lopez, Joel Embiid, and Andrew Wiggins to name a few. Let's not be greedy. Let's get the guy we've been talking about: Paul George. He'll have to pick a new uniform number though.
- 1a D'Angelo Russell $7.0m
- 2a Jimmy Butler $19.8m
- 3a Paul George $32m
- 4a Brandon Ingram $5.75m
- 5a Ivica Zubac $1.54m
- 1b David Nwaba $1.54m
- 2b Luke Kennard $1.54m
- 3b Luol Deng $18m
- 4b Larry Nance $2.27m
- 5b Timofey Mozgov $16m
That puts us $105.44m with 10 players. We'd need to go with minimum salaries and use our veteran exception to fill out roster spots 11-14. In this scenario, one of our youngsters (Ingram, Russell, or Zubac) becomes the 3rd member of the "Big 3". What do you think? In my view, this scenario feels 46.9% possible.