How Scottie Barnes is at a turning point in Raptors’ season
The Toronto Raptors currently sit at 38-29, good enough for the sixth spot in the Eastern Conference, but just barely. They have just a half-game cushion above a play-in spot and recently sunk into the play-in before rising back out of it. It is clear that their once-promising season has felt pretty unstable at times, especially of late.
After exceeding many expectations early, even winning their way into the four seed ahead of the All-Star break, the Raps seemed to have cooled off at the worst possible time. Since the break, it has looked like a different story for this squad. The Raptors are 6-6 in their last 12 games played, with only two of those wins coming against teams with better records than them. What is even more concerning is that three of those losses have come by double digits, exposing the team’s deeper issues, particularly on the offensive side of the floor.
A big part of that offensive dip can be tied to the recent play of their franchise cornerstone player, Scottie Barnes. Prior to the break, Barnes was stuffing the stat sheets, doing a little bit of everything on both ends of the floor to help impact winning basketball. Through the first 49 games of the season, he averaged 19.4 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 5.6 assists, powering Toronto’s rise up the standings.
His all-around dominance even earned him his second All-Star selection. That is an extremely impressive feat for a young Raps player because it is rare to see a Raptor earn multiple All-Star appearances. In doing so, he joined some elite company in Raptors history alongside Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Pascal Siakam, Chris Bosh, and Vince Carter. Things were running free and easy.
And yet over Barnes’ last ten games, his offensive numbers have dipped. He has averaged just 15.6 points, 4.7 boards, and 3.7 dimes. He has only passed the 20-plus point mark once since the break, during a game against the Houston Rockets.
The big question is what has changed? Well, simply put: Barnes has lacked aggressiveness. Barnes is at his best when he attacks downhill towards the rim. He has great strength, a soft touch, and an amazing ability to absorb and finish through contact, making him a force to be reckoned with in the paint. Even when teams try to collapse on him, attacking the bucket, Barnes has elite court vision that punishes defences that try to double him.
Whenever that happens, more often than not, the supporting cast around him gets easy and open looks. However, recently, that pressure has seemed to vanish, and without it, Toronto’s offence becomes far easier to contain. Their offense becomes much more predictable without Barnes playing toward the rim or at least in the middle of the floor. Barnes has frequently been playing out of the corner, which means a lot of standing. For a non-shooter, that’s not an ideal role.
Outside of Brandon Ingram, the Raps do not have many good shot creators. That means if teams can take away the downhill pressure from Barnes attacking the cup, it leaves other scorers trying to force something at which they are not as strong. Barnes’ passivity has downhill effects that ripple to his teammates.
The bright spot for the Raptors is that, even though Barnes’s offensive production has been slipping, there is no denying that he is still an incredible defender. Barnes has a total of 102 blocks on the season. That ranks 4th-most in the NBA. He has more than double the blocks of Brandon Ingram, who has the second most on the team with just 47. When it comes to steals, Barnes is ranked highly as well, positioned 16th league-wide. In fact, he has a real case to win the Defensive Player of the Year award.
Frequently, his defence on its own changes the outcomes of games, and fans have seen that firsthand in the last couple of games, when the Raptors defeated the Phoenix Suns and the Detroit Pistons. In the Suns game, Barnes had a clutch chase-down block on Jalen Green with 43 seconds remaining in the final frame. The block allowed Toronto to hold onto a four-point cushion, and it led to points on the ensuing drive when Barnes hooked up with RJ Barrett for the flush.
In the Raptors’ next game against the Pistons, he followed it up with another defensive masterclass. Toronto was able to take down the top-seeded Pistons in the East because of how well Barnes set the tone. He anchored the defence, holding the Pistons to just five points in the opening four minutes of the ball game. More specifically, Barnes had the MVP-candidate Cade Cunningham on clamps, holding him scoreless for a long stretch to open the game.
And yet defence can only take the Raptors so far. In many ways, Barnes’ defence might define the team’s floor. But his offence — and its limitations — might define the team’s ceiling.
Although Barnes’s defensive skillset is undeniable, as a star player for your team, you need to be multi-dimensional. No player is perfect in everything; in fact, most stars in the league have some sort of weakness. For Barnes, that weakness stems from inconsistent shooting. Pair that with Barnes’ recent passivity, and it can be a death knell for a team’s offence if even one player can be limited on offence in such a way.
Offensive limitations are exacerbated in the playoffs. Games tighten up during big-stage moments, and every single possession matters. Toronto is going to need its star to rediscover his offensive aggression and balance his elite defence with consistent scoring. There is already a blueprint from the first half of the season. And a return to form is going to need to happen if the Raps want to avoid the play-in tournament and become a legitimate threat to make some real noise.
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