Quickley and Poeltl have been Raptors’ saviors hiding in plain sight
Saw is a classic concept film. Victims of a gore-obsessed lunatic are trapped in a room, already littered with a dead body (presumably Jigsaw’s last victim), and forced to do gory things to themselves. They ask themselves who would do this to them. The twist — spoiler here — is of course that Jigsaw was the very-much-not-dead body all along. The answer was quite literally staring in the faces of the victims all along.
The Toronto Raptors might be in a similar, albeit less gory, situation. They have been searching for answers to a number of questions of their own. They miss shooting of all varieties, both pull-up and catch-and-shoot. They miss driving, really off-the-dribble creation of all kinds. Ultimately, their offence just isn’t a cohesive, modern unit. It’s no wonder they’ve been searching.
But perhaps the answer to Toronto’s manifold questions has been staring the team in the face this entire time. (At least, a partial answer, for now, until better ones come along. More on that later.)
Immanuel Quickley and Jakob Poeltl could be Toronto’s solution to what ails them. Not separately. Separately they are unable to cure Toronto’s ills. But together? Perhaps.
Quickley is a point guard who needs a big to unlock his skills. Similarly, Poeltl is a big whose skills are wasted without a point guard. Neither can be his best self without the other. But together they ameliorate their own and one another’s weaknesses. They multiply one another’s strengths, and they altogether smooth out the rough edges of the entire team.
Since Quickley joined the Raptors, the two have played only 1429 minutes together. That’s low, largely due to injury: Quickley’s 58 games this season is already his single-season high with the Raptors, and Poeltl’s high over that stretch in any season is just 57. They’ve played much more separately — between 3500 and 4000 minutes apiece — largely because their injuries have mostly been asynchronous. But in those 1429 minutes together, Toronto has had a healthy net rating of plus-3.95. (Keep in mind, two of those three seasons have been tanking years.) The Raptors have been negative with one or the other playing over that stretch and very negative with neither. This hasn’t been carried by Toronto’s star; Quickley-Poeltl units have had a slightly better net rating (plus-4.08) with Scottie Barnes off the floor over the last three seasons.
Quickley’s not a fantastic driver or scorer out of isolation. He can’t usually beat his primary defender and the help defender and reach the rim. He usually settles for floaters when he gets there, or he picks up his dribble entirely and resets the play. His pull-up jumper is hard to access against a set defence because he takes an extra beat to load up and doesn’t like to shoot when heavily contested. For a point guard, he’s generally been poor at passing off the dribble, especially in traffic. As a result, he’s scoring 0.82 points per possession out of isolation, which is below average, but especially for a jitterbug point guard.
But with Poeltl, those driving lanes are wider. Those pull-up shots are more available. And because Poeltl is such a master at keeping passing lanes available, Quickley has more and better off-the-bounce passes available to him with Poeltl as his screening partner. His points per possession in more dynamic, two-man actions are far superior: 1.24 points per possession in handoffs and 0.99 points per possession as a pick-and-roll ball handler. (When you include passes, his pick-and-roll efficiency actually skyrockets to the 82nd percentile at 1.076 points per possession.)
And Poeltl is no self-creator or shooter whatsoever. He doesn’t have much of a post game. But he sets cast-iron screens; he’s fifth in the league in screen assists per game. And few of Toronto’s players are able to utilize them, largely because of the team’s dearth of pull-up shooting, dribbling, or driving. But Quickley can. Poeltl is a great finisher when someone creates for him, and Quickley is terrific at creating for bigs in the way Poeltl likes — with pocket passes while Poeltl has momentum heading towards the rim. Most of Poeltl’s looks from Quickley end up in the short mid-range there, and he’s a brilliant finisher with those little push shots and floaters.
Even in a down year riddled with injury, Poeltl is scoring 1.33 points per possession as a pick-and-roll screener, which is an elite number right near the tippy top of the league. Poeltl is strong at carving out space in the paint when his teammates drive towards him, at occupying the help. And due to his own limitations, Quickley needs that.
All told, a pick and roll between Quickley and Poeltl averages 1.306 points per possession. A truly monster number. They have only run 61 together on the season that have ended in a shot, assist, or turnover due to low minute totals, but that’s a number that you can take to the bank.
Quickley is not a league-best point guard. But he is much closer to one when he’s playing alongside Poeltl. And Poeltl has offensive limitations, but they are far lessened when he’s alongside Quickley.
Some numbers: Since joining the Raptors, Quickley’s shot 42.0 percent from deep with Poeltl on the floor and 36.3 percent with Poeltl off. He has shot 52.4 percent on 2s with Poeltl on and 46.6 percent with Poeltl off.
It’s important not to get carried away. Quickley doesn’t become Steph Curry when he’s alongside Poeltl. He becomes far better, but still not among the league’s elite point guards. He still doesn’t take many shots at the rim even with Poeltl playing alongside him, for example. And Poeltl doesn’t become Nikola Jokic or even Rudy Gobert. He doesn’t necessarily improve as much as his skills find purchase with Quickley around to leverage them. And the team’s net rating with the two on the court is good, but not contender-level good. Significantly: that roughly plus-4 net rating with the two on the court has been identical this season, with Toronto trying to win, as it was over the last two, with Toronto trying to lose.
Quickley and Poeltl may set Toronto’s floor, but they don’t lift its ceiling into the sky. Regardless, they do represent an answer to some questions. The Raptors know from where they can find drives and 3-pointers.
Are the Raptors able to beat good teams with the duo on the floor together? That’s unclear. They came pretty darn close against the New York Knicks in a game that saw the Raptors collapse in a crunch time that decidedly did not feature Quickley and Poeltl together.
But there are answers on the roster. Ball-park estimates, Quickley might be somewhere in the range of top 25-35 point guard in the league, and Poeltl (when healthy) may be somewhere in a comparable range for centers, or perhaps slightly lower. Again, don’t quote me on those numbers. But together, they perform far better than a top-25 point guard-center combo. The point is that they are more than the sum of their parts. And they do so on a team that desperately needs the exact skills they create seemingly out of thin air when they work their magic together.
Poeltl and Quickley represent a salve for the Raptors. One that has been too rarely applied this season, both due to injury but also due to deprioritization even with the two on the court. It would behoove Darko Rajakovic to shift some offensive burden to Quickley-Poeltl pick and rolls with both available. But a salve is no long-term solution. The Raptors likely want to upgrade at the point guard and center spots in the long term. With best players on the court, a net rating closer to plus-10 is the mark of a contender. Toronto’s not there.
But in the short term, the Raptors have solutions to the questions staring right in their faces. Quickley and Poeltl individually may pose questions. But together, they have been answers.
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