Raptors demolished, but what to make of Jamison Battle’s role?

Jamison Battle enters the game for the Toronto Raptors with the team down 12 points to the Philadelphia 76ers. The two-game series saw the Raptors take the first leg behind some late-game heroics. Battle saw 15 minutes, close to a season-high, though he shot well. And as he enters the game in this second contest, he replaces Alijah Martin, who jaws with Joel Embiid the entire way to the bench, as the two pick up double technicals. 

It doesn’t spark Toronto. Tyrese Maxey rains hellfire off the dribble, and the Sixers finish with 45 points in the first quarter. Battle does little in his 90 seconds to end the first.  

If you go purely by the on-off numbers (which, you shouldn’t), Battle is the most impactful player on the team. He leads the Raptors in on-off differential per 100 possessions, both offensively and defensively. He leads the team in efficiency differential offensively and defensively, in free throw differential. He leads the team in at-rim frequency differential, in at-rim efficiency differential, in transition efficiency differential. All told, the team is 27.2 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor versus on the bench, which doesn’t just lead the Raptors; it leads the mother fucking league. 

But the team is only employing him in scenarios in which his ability to impact the game can be maximized. If he played 35 minutes a night, it would be questionable whether his on-off differential would be so pronounced.

“He’s a specialist,” said Rajakovic before the game. “He’s a player that brings instant firepower when he comes on the bench. He proved that so many times this season that he can come in the game and then change the game. And at this point that’s his role. He’s embraced that role. That’s why he’s so, so efficient in that.”

So what do the on-off numbers really mean? Really that he’s an exceptional specialist. He’s doing fantastically in his role. That role means sometimes he’ll play zero minutes, sometimes six, sometimes 16. (And, so far this season, he hasn’t played more than that.) He got real minutes in the double header against the Sixers because the Raptors missed RJ Barrett and Ja’Kobe Walter in both contests, opening up wing minutes.

“It’s kind of easy to go out there and play when you’re not on a scouting report, and then you come off the bench and everybody’s like looking at each other like ‘what does this guy do?’” said Rajakovic.

In the second quarter, Battle cuts from the right corner on a drive. He’s open for a moment but doesn’t see a pass. So he clears to the other corner, then gets the pass, and drills the triple. He gathers the defensive rebound on the next possession, leading to another Toronto triple. He stands in the corner for a few possessions and then misses a side-step from above the break. On the next possession he steps out of bounds trying to drive from the corner. A teammate falls, getting fouled, and Battle races over to pick him up. It’s hit last real possession of the game until garbage time.

Playing perfectly in a specialist role isn’t the same thing as being a permanent member of a rotation. Perhaps it means you should be, but not necessarily. So what does Battle need to do to elevate his role  on the team? To become a permanent rotation member? 

“While he’s in that [specialist] role, we’re also trying to work with him and get him ready for extended minutes and to improve his offense and defense and finishing and all the stuff,” said Rajakovic. “So he’s in the process of now adding more stuff to his game. Not just being necessarily catch and shoot, but also when teams are treating you as a hard shooter and chasing you off the line, how to play from there, what is the next thing there, how to get to the rim, how to playmake.” 

There are signs that such moments are a work in progress for Battle. While he’s taking almost triple the frequency of shots at the rim this season as compared to his rookie year, and shooting more efficiently there besides, much of that is coming off the cut. When he’s actually driving when he’s run off the line, things are more mixed. Well, more theoretical than mixed. He’s averaging 0.4 drives per game, which adds up to a grand total of 10 drives on the season. (That stat is limited to possession-ending drives, those that end in a shot, turnover, or assist.) Many of those would-be drives are being corralled by stunts before he actually gets off the 3-point line, leading to nothing being recorded. Many of them are leading to reset possessions. For shooting specialists, such plays need to end in the bare minimum of extended advantage, preferably expanded advantage, for them to become permanent rotation members. Again: his one attempted drive in the game against Philadelphia sees him step out of bounds. 

Battle plays six minutes in the first half, which Philadelphia wins by 14 points. No one plays well, but it is meaningful that Battle doesn’t get extended run. He’s a shooting specialist on a team that currently ranks 23rd in 3-point percentage and has been dropping in recent weeks. In a vacuum, one might think it would behoove the Raptors to play Battle.

Defensively, Battle has been solid. Our own Samson Folk wrote this in November:

“He has been serviceable defensively in limited minutes. He hasn’t been a painful point of breakdowns. He’s held his own. His feet are actually really good, to my eye.”

I think that remains true. I’ve certainly seen some breakdowns on the perimeter, but that happens to everyone. He shows up around the rim, and his contests there are quite solid. Especially for a shooting specialist, I like his paint defence. He has been part of many of Toronto’s best defensive lineups, but I don’t think he’s driven them. And when I asked Rajakovic about why he had the best defensive on-offs on the team, he said basically exactly that. Paraphrasing: he’s played well, but those on-offs aren’t capturing best-on-the-team defence or anything close to that. 

And against Philadelphia, his defence isn’t catastrophic. I mean, the Sixers score 80 points in the first half, but Battle is far away from the points. The guards are getting shelled on mammoth screens followed by pull-up jumpers. Philly’s offence remains a howitzer whether Battle is on the floor or the court. 

All of this, of course, is analysis in a vacuum. The differences between a specialist and a permanent rotation player in theory. But in reality, the Raptors have a permanent rotation player who just isn’t performing. Gradey Dick has the same theoretical strengths and weaknesses as Battle, but the performance gap between the two has been stark. Dick has been driving more frequently than Battle, but he has been inefficient shooting on drives. Battle has been the superior defender. And Battle has hit his jumpers, while Dick hasn’t: important for a shooting specialist! 

Against the Sixers, with Barrett out, there has been room for both Battle and Dick. (The team has performed quite well with both playing, with a net rating of plus-14.) There won’t be room for both in the rotation going forward. The Raptors remain committed to Dick, perhaps due to his age (2.5 years younger than Battle), perhaps due to his potential, perhaps due to his draft location (lottery for Dick versus undrafted for Battle). 

It’s fair to wonder if Battle, even if he doesn’t fulfill the ideal requirements to upgrade from specialist to rotation member, should take Dick’s rotation spot anyway.

The Raptors make a run in the third quarter. They force some turnovers and finally get some defensive stops. A zone defence appears for stretches. AJ Lawson is a sparkplug. Dick forces some misses and gets a reverse layup to fall. It’s working so Rajakovic rides the hot group and Battle loses his Jodie Meeks Memorial Minute at the end of the third. In garbage time, he is eclipsed by the appearance of Kyle Lowry, in perhaps his final on-court minutes in Scotiabank Arena.

It feels like another shoe is about to drop at some point when it comes to Toronto’s rotation. Consider the shooting guards and small forwards. Barrett and Brandon Ingram own the minutes there, and Walter has been on the come up. Dick has been funneled consistent minutes. Martin and Lawson are on the come up. What does that leave for Battle? There isn’t clarity from night to night, and while Rajakovic has found winning combinations out of different ingredients on a night-to-night basis, it makes for a difficult job. And it makes for a player in Battle who can play zero minutes one night, 15 the next. Six minutes one half, none the next. He can fall through the cracks.

Battle remains promising, and he remains committed, and there are no storm clouds on the horizon. But he is slowly but surely graduating out of the role of specialist. He couldn’t do so against the Sixers. But at some point, he’ll be ready to step into the permanent rotation. And one hopes that the Raptors have space for him when that moment comes.

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