What to know about the Iran protests, including supreme leader's reported plan to flee to Russia
In the last two weeks, protests in Iran have grown to such a scale that they are rivalling some of the great uprisings that have characterized the modern history of the revolutionary dictatorship, whose ruling regime appears to be running out of options to restore economic and social stability. So far, this one has not been contained and put down like the others, with state violence and mass prosecution of dissenters. Now, Iran’s rulers are on notice that the United States stands ready to intervene if protesters are killed, a threat made all the more pressing by this weekend’s military action in Venezuela. The National Post takes stock of the current tensions.
Why are people protesting in Iran?
There are many reasons to march against a theocratic dictatorship. Longstanding human rights violations on Iranian citizens play a part, but the proximate cause here seems to be economic. The Iranian currency, the rial, has been falling in value for years against the American dollar, more steeply lately. In 2015, when Iran joined a nuclear accord, rials were trading at 32,000 to the dollar. The currency has basically fallen ever since, reaching a record low in December of almost 1.5 million to the dollar. This depreciation worsens the effects of inflation, which in recent months has run at nearly 50 per cent, and has caused the price of consumer goods to rise.
The rial’s collapse prompted the resignation of the governor of the central bank on Dec. 29. Protesters, who had gathered the day before, marched in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar that day, backed by striking merchants. The protests spread quickly to other major cities in the more densely populated west of the country. Dec. 30 saw widespread closures of shops and schools and intense security operations to control protesters, some of whom were openly denouncing the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
With daily protests now in 26 of 31 provinces, the latest reports this week are that 19 protesters and one security official have been killed. A U.S.-based group, Human Rights Activists in Iran, reported nearly 1,000 people have been arrested.
What do foreign leaders think?
“We’re watching it very closely. If they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they’re going to get hit very hard by the United States,” U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. Earlier, he posted on social media: “We are locked and loaded and ready to go.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his government expresses “solidarity with the struggle of the Iranian people.”
An Iranian foreign ministry statement described this as seeking to undermine Iran’s national unity.
In June, Israel fought a 12-day war with Iran backed by the United States, which attacked and severely damaged Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz.
Hasn’t this happened before?
Yes, and it has typically been put down with great force. Three years ago, for example, the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini, 22, who had been arrested for not wearing a hijab, was the spark for the greatest nationwide protest to date in Iran.
Before that, in 2009, the so-called Persian Spring protests followed contested elections. This was regarded as a major threat to the regime and was put down forcefully, with many protesters jailed.
What are Iranian security officials doing now?
On Monday, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, the chief justice of Iran and a former prosecutor, said authorities would listen to legitimate criticism about social and economic welfare, but that they would “deal firmly with those who seek to exploit the situation,” and would show rioters “no leniency or appeasement.”
However, several reports describe the regime as on the brink of collapse, and desperate to contain the uprising, fearful that security services could be overwhelmed and abandon the government.
On Sunday, The Times of London cited an intelligence report to report a claim that Iran’s ruler Ayatollah Khamenei has a plan in place to flee for Moscow in the event of regime collapse, modelled on the escape of Syria’s deposed leader Bashar al-Assad.
Even before they grew to the present scale, however, there was evidence of efforts to suppress these protests and those people who might inspire them.
On Dec. 12, Iranian authorities arrested 2023 Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, 53, a feminist activist against mandatory hijab laws.
A foundation in her name said in a statement that she was arrested “violently” along with other prominent human rights campaigners in Mashhad, an industrial city and pilgrimage destination in the far northeast of Iran, near the Afghanistan and Turkmenistan borders.
They were reportedly taken at a memorial service for Khosrow Alikordi, 46, a human rights lawyer who represented political prisoners, campaigned against the death penalty, and had previously been jailed on propaganda charges.
He was found dead in his office in early December, reportedly by a heart attack but suspected by his family and supporters as murder.
The foundation said Mohammadi is being held in solitary confinement under conditions she herself has suffered and campaigned against, known as “white torture,” a technique of sleep and sensory deprivation in which a person is held indefinitely by themselves in a constantly illuminated all white room.
What does the deposing of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces in Venezuela do to the equation?
The conflict in Venezuela could deflect global public attention from Iran, if not actually ease diplomatic pressure. But it also serves as a warning that sometimes bluster and belligerence in foreign affairs is actually followed by action.
Iranian officials have recently been making conciliatory gestures to the West. Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi gave a rare interview to The Economist magazine in November, for example, saying Iran is ready to make a “fair and balanced deal…. We are ready for negotiation, but not for dictation.”
Now, Trump has warned Iran that he is ready to strike again, and Venezuela adds a certain credibility to the idea.
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