Providence Preview, 2025-26

State of the Program

Kim English has had mixed results in his two seasons in Providence. His 2024 team was right on the bubble when bid thieves pushed them away from the field while injuries last year (including to Bryce Hopkins) led to their worst season by win percentage since 1999-2000. The Friars hit the portal hard, bringing in a wealth of proven high-major talent. Maybe more important is the addition of assistant coach Bryan Tibaldi, who helped turn the Cleveland Cavaliers offense from the 19th best offense in the NBA in 2023-24 to #1 this past year. This feels like a do-or-die season for English, who may very well need an NCAA Tournament bid to keep his job.

Rotation

Style of Play

Last year we were spot on in expecting Providence's long-range shooting to improve (32.5% to 35.6%) but at the cost of their at-the-rim efficiency (59.4% to 56.2%). Ultimately, this led to some overall offensive improvement, but likely not as much as English hoped for because of a turnover-prone back court. They did address that in the portal, letting some of their worst ATR players leave while retaining the better options and adding players who are better at the rim than those that left. This matters because the Friars initiate their offense with the dribble drive. This generates their best looks either through rim finishes or kicking out for open threes. English likes to run offense through the bigs as well, but Oswin wasn't as well suited as Josh Oduro to post up or high-low actions. Most of the big man scoring and shot creation was either Oswin cutting to the dunker spot or cleaning up offensive rebounds. A second year in the system coupled with a more versatile big in Hargrove should allow for more offense to go through the middle. If there's any real issue, it might be the lack of shot creation. This roster is full of guys happy to take shots but not many options that create for others. That's where Tibaldi comes in. He'll be tasked with finding ways to create those shots, possibly through multiple creative outlets like he had in Cleveland.

Tactically, Providence is focused on taking away good shots. Chase teams off the three point line, funnel to the middle where the bigs await to block shots, and use that rim protection threat to force less efficient midrange looks. The problem is that while it's sound tactically, their effectiveness in that regard has tanked once they get to Big East play. There's certainly a step up in competition when it comes to league play, but they've been competitive with tourney teams in non-con, so it isn't like they are only beating up on cupcakes. The other problem is that Providence has ranked outside the top-100 in defensive turnover rate and defensive rebound rate the last two years. So when their ability to challenge shots breaks down, they aren't generating turnovers or limiting teams to a single shot to offset the eFG% dropoff. To contend for a tourney bid, this team needs to keep their defensive intensity and efficiency up for the entire season, not just the first two months.

2025-26 Outlook 

Edwards was a certified star for Vanderbilt's NCAA team last year. Sellers and Powell were productive high-major players. With blossoming young players Erhunmwunse and Mela back, this team has no excuses when it comes to hearing their name on Selection Sunday. It feels very much like a make or break year for English, and in terms of raw talent, there is more than enough there to be dancing come March. That said, there are some legitimate questions. Who will run the offense? Edwards is a shooting guard in a point guard frame, and these are all guys who generally have benefitted from having creative guards to get them the ball rather than being the creators themselves. Will the defense hold up over a full season? Erhunmwunse was an excellent defensive center while Mela, Hargrove, Sellers, and Davis are all proven plus defenders at the high major level, but as we see, the conference defensive dropoff has been a real problem. Perhaps most important, can English coach this team to a bid? While Ed Cooley was excellent in close games, English is just 8-12 in games decided by four points or fewer or in overtime. When Providence is looking for the results that determine if they are in or out, will English be able to win enough of those games to tilt things in the Friars advantage? This team is good enough paper and certainly should be an NCAA Tournament team. How the pieces come together on the court will determine if they get there or not.

One Man's Opinion

We have Providence 5th in the Big East. While English's teams have been pretty good about balancing their shots between the arc and the rim, how they create those shots has led to mediocre efficiency, even with Big East Player of the Year Devin Carter there. Having someone like Tibaldi to truly modernize the offense should pay major dividends (as Marquette has seen with Nevada Smith). Defensively, the pieces are there to be competent and the wealth of experience should help them maintain some consistency there. Look for Edwards to challenge for the league's scoring title, Oswin to emerge as a star, and English to finally reach the NCAA Tournament.