Butler Preview, 2025-26

State of the Program

When Butler entered the Big East, it looked like the Butler Way would carry right along. After the awkward Brandon Miller season, Chris Holtmann led them to three straight tourney berths. He left, but LaVall Jordan had them in the tourney again in 2018 and knocking on the door of a protected seed in 2020 before COVID shut everything down. Since then, the Bulldogs have fallen on hard times. Back to back losing seasons got Jordan fired. Thad Matta returned after more than two decades away, but he had his second losing season in three campaigns last year and aside from DePaul, Butler has the longest NCAA bid drought in the Big East, even if you give them credit for the abandoned 2020 season. Last year, the Bulldogs finished ahead of only Seton Hall and DePaul in the Big East. They lost four senior starters to graduation and four more players that started multiple games left via the transfer portal. Their own transfer portal work primarily brought players from lower leagues. Matta likely needs to win now, but it seems unlikely he has the roster to be able to do that.

Style of Play

The good news for Butler is Matta has overseen consistent offensive improvement at Butler. They ranked #224 offensively his first year back, #67 in 2024, and were up to #38 last year. Last year they did that by stretching possessions and capitalizing with late-shot clock threes, thanks to a plethora of proven shooters. Matta loves to set up offense with drives to both finish at the rim and set up perimeter shots. They efficiently mix in pick and roll, finding cutters all over the floor. Butler cut down on midrange, prioritizing good shots. Last year, their bigs could post up the defense or, when held up, could get it back out to the perimeter, so more of the offense flowed through the post. It may be hard to replicate that. In 2025, virtually everyone on Butler could both score efficiently and create for others. They had players like Jahmyl Telfort and Pierre Brooks that were physical mismatches surrounded by shooters like Patrick McCaffery and Kolby King who were reliable from outside. Expect them to keep driving; Jackson can get to the rim, but whether Kaiser and Ajayi can replace Telfort and Brooks is a big ask, and they don't have the reliable shooting depth they had a year ago. The offense will likely step back.

Butler's offense was good everywhere & repeated what they did well

Play analysis from Hoop-Explorer.com

The bad news for Butler is defense has trended down under Matta, going from #55 to #76 to #169 last year. The physicality that played in their favor on offense led to defenders that couldn't keep up, with the second shortest defensive possession length in the league. They were abysmal forcing turnovers and let teams get to the rim far too easily. They are elite at avoiding fouls, but free throw rate is the least important of the four factors and despite ranking in the top-10 nationally each of his three years back at Butler, the defensive ranks continue to slide. Kaiser and Ajayi give them some toughness and length, but they'll need someone to be able to put possessions to an end. The guards developing the ability to at least marginally create turnovers or the bigs being able to prove they can vacuum up rebounds at a high-major level will be critical in defensive improvement, because not fouling and not challenging shots hasn't been a winning recipe.

2025-26 Outlook 

Obviously, Butler lost a lot of production. They return just 15.2% of their minutes from last year. On paper, each individual transfer has a case to be made for them. Maybe Jalen Jackson can translate his Horizon success to the Big East, maybe Jamie Kaiser bounces back from injury and shows the Maryland efficiency was a fluke while developing into an effective two-way player. Maybe Michael Ajayi recaptures his Pepperdine play and shows that he did belong at a higher level. Maybe Drayton Jones shows he's a Big East level rim protector and continues to wreak havoc on both ends at the rim. Maybe Yame Butler plays like a sixth starter and makes lineup decisions difficult for Matta. Maybe Traore finally plays like a five-star in a high-level league. But that's a lot of maybes, and even the one sure thing in Bizjack feels a lot less certain when he goes from the fourth option to the guy every defense will be circling first. The offense doesn't look as good, and even if the defense improves, it's hard to see significant improvement with so many mid-major players filling out the roster. It feels like the highest pressure moments Butler will be playing in this year will be ones that determine if Matta can do enough to keep his job.

One Man's Opinion

Butler checks in at 9th in the Big East. Too much roster turnover, not enough proven high-level talent, and it just seems unlikely all those maybes listed above will end up in the yes column come March. The bigger question might be what Butler does if Matta has another losing season. In terms of resources, it's likely hard to compete at a school like Butler with the top of the league, but that doesn't change that this program joined the Big East on the heels of the highest levels of success in program history and Butler fans are for the most part old enough to remember that. Does Matta get another year if this one ends with another year added to their NCAA drought? I think there's a very real chance we will get an answer to that question in late March.