Xavier Preview, 2025-26

State of the Program

Xavier fans will be hoping to hold on to consistency despite the departure of Sean Miller for Texas just three years after XU gave him the chance to rehabilitate his reputation. Xavier is one of just nine programs to never rank outside the top-100 in kenpom going back to 1997 (Alabama, Arizona, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, Villanova, and Wisconsin are the others). The difficulty this year will be that they bring back virtually no one from last year's team, have a roster of mostly mid-major transfers, and are already dealing with injury issues. Pitino did a great job rebuilding New Mexico and can likely do the same at Xavier given the improved resources, but they are at the beginning of that process.

Rotation

Style of Play

Pitino wants his teams to play fast. He had some middling success with up-tempo teams at FIU and Minnesota, but at New Mexico he committed to pace. It starts with a high-pressure defense that forces turnovers and runout opportunities. The past three years they were in the 90th percentile in transition opportunities. When they do get into the half-court, they play with flow. Lots of off-ball movement, cuts to the basket, drives to the rim, and based not on scripted plays but on teaching players to read and react in the moment while constantly attacking. They also do an excellent job protecting the ball and don't beat themselves. But above all, expect this offense to hit you quick. Their average offensive possession length was 16.7 seconds in his first year at UNM and got faster every year, down to just 15.3 seconds last year. If this all sounds similar to Marquette, there is one very big difference. Pitino's offenses attack with the intent of getting downhill. Their points will come inside the arc or at the free throw line. UNM has ranked #330 or worse in three-point attempt rate each of the past three years. They might take more threes this year simply because the roster makeup favors it and the talent level will probably have them needing to play some catch up, but the goal will be to hammer the ball inside. At New Mexico, Pitino's team was high-usage, low-efficiency at the rim. This roster should be better suited to finish when they get inside.

Shot Chart from CBB Analytics / Rim Rates from Hoop-Explorer.com

Defensively, Pitino's teams have adopted his father's pressure to create turnovers focus, though some of that may be a string of gifted ballhawks in recent years at UNM. When teams get into the half-court, his defenses prioritize protecting the paint. He typically has multiple shot-blockers on the floor at the same time, including from the wing and back court. Teams are best served being patient against Pitino defenses. They will force opponents into late shot-clock situations, but if you can move the ball without turning it over they will allow looks from three. 

2025-26 Outlook 

The vision from Richard Pitino makes sense. This team has a number of sophomores who have proven they can play D1 basketball and can grow together in the coming years. The problem is the talent level now just isn't high enough to consistently win at this level. This team will likely be scrappy and pick off a few wins because of that, but they'll need regular recruiting wins and in-house development to get Xavier back to competing for NCAA bids and Big East titles. The Pozzato injury lowers the ceiling further if he can't get back soon and if this team is injury-riddled, their top-100 streak could be in jeopardy.

One Man's Opinion

We project Xavier to finish 10th in the Big East. There just isn't enough here roster-wise and it being a completely new system and roster will only make acclimation harder. The Pozzato injury sets them back because he was considered one of the most likely guys to put the ball in the bucket. Putting both Wright and Anderson in the same back court feels risky as there's one guard that is looking for his own shot and one who's turnover prone. I think there's a real chance some of the players on this team end up playing in the NCAA Tournament for Xavier, but most likely it won't be this year.