Purdue Preview, 2025-26
Purdue Boilermakers
December 13th, 2025 at Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
Head Coach: Matt Painter (496-220 overall, 471-215 at Purdue)
Three-Year NET Average: 8.0
Three-Year kenpom Average: 8.3
Projected 2025-26 T-Rank: 4
Photo by Mark Hoffman, JSOnline.com
State of the Program
Two years ago, the consensus was that Purdue came up just short of the best chance Matt Painter would ever have to win a title. They lost to UConn in the Championship Game and two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey graduated to the NBA. While they took a step back without Edey, it wasn't nearly as big a step as one would expect losing a guy with size 20 shoes. Purdue still finished in the top-15 of kenpom, reached the Sweet 16, and are now among the favorites to win the 2026 National Championship. Painter has prioritized continuity, returning 69.7% of their minutes, best of any high-major by far (UConn is next at 56.2%, Marquette is third at 53.8%). In addition to four returning starters, Purdue adds one of the nation's leading rebounders in Oscar Cluff, veteran shooter Liam Murphy, and heralded Israeli guard Omer Mayer. The Boilermakers are talented, experienced, and deep. Some may now call this Painter's best chance to win a title, but even if they come up short, don't be surprised to see Purdue in this position again sooner rather than later. Painter has truly built one of the best programs in the country on an annual basis.
Rotation
The first name on the team sheet is Braden Smith. Smith will be among the favorites for All-American and National Player of the Year honors. Smith is a capable scorer who can hit threes or convert when he does get to the rim, but it's his passing that makes him elite. His 44.2% Assist Rate was second in the country and it isn't unthinkable that he could leave college as the all-time assists leader; he needs 319 to pass Bobby Hurley after dishing out 313 a year ago. Part of that assist efficiency is Fletcher Loyer. He's a lethal catch-and-shoot option who is better in the midrange than he is at the rim and plays accordingly. C.J. Cox is an offensive role-player who is efficient when he fires from deep or gets to the rim, but is more highly regarded as a wing defender. Expect him to take the opponent's best offensive threat every night. Trey Kaufman-Renn exploded as a scoring option last year. After averaging 5.5 points/game over his first two seasons, he put up 20.1 points per game as a junior, and that scoring escalated as the season went on (22.6 ppg in the second half of the season). TKR will be in a different role, moving out of the post and to more of a power forward role, so it will be interesting to see if this creates any spacing problems as he is not a perimeter threat. Oscar Cluff was the big name transfer Painter brought in. He'll likely carry less of an offensive load than he did at South Dakota State, but he's a vacuum cleaner on the boards and capable passer that should amplify the Purdue offense. Off the bench, returning players Gicarri Harris and Daniel Jacobsen provide quality depth. Jacobsen contributed to the USA U-19 World Cup Gold Medal-winning squad this past summer and if the step up to the Big 10 is too big for Cluff, could find himself in a bigger role immediately. Omer Mayer was second in scoring in that U-19 World Cup (20.0 ppg) and is expected to be the next star guard for Purdue with two seasons of professional experience for Maccabi Tel Aviv. If Mayer can break into the lineup, he could be a major factor as he's considered one of Purdue's most talented players long term. Finally, Liam Murphy from North Florida gives size and shooting on the wing.
Style of Play
Painter excels at molding his offensive style to his team's strengths. Last year, they had a balance of bigs and slashers that could finish at the rim as well as three-point shooters, which led to balanced inside/out scoring. How they achieved that was different from most modern teams, however. Whereas most teams initiate offense with the drive, Purdue's ball-handlers are not great getting to the rim, so instead they initiated offense by passing into the post, where the bigs could either finish themselves or dump it out for open threes. Purdue was in the 90+ percentile in big man cut & roll plays (95.1% frequency/95.9% efficiency), post-ups (98.4%/93.7%), and inside out plays (91.5%/94.8%). Cluff is an exceptional passer and should flourish in this type of post role. More often than not, Painter put four shooters around Kaufman-Renn or one of the other bigs. If they play TKR and Cluff together, it could negatively impact spacing, so it will be interesting to see how he maximizes his offensive options. Purdue's offense has ranked in the top-12 on kenpom six of the last eight seasons and should do so again. This will be an elite unit and Painter's flexibility should underscore that.
Shot Chart from CBBAnalytics.com
The defensive end is where this Purdue team will have question marks. Purdue primarily runs man, though Painter will sometimes flex into a 1-2-2 matchup zone to limit dynamic guards. They are very good at keeping teams out of the paint, which is important because this Purdue roster has been absolutely terrible at defending teams when they get to the rim. Painter's teams are good at defending the arc, holding opponents below 32% from deep in five of the last six seasons. Inside, they only allow 31.3% of opponent shots to come at the rim, which ranks #339 (in a good way) nationally. But when teams do get there they convert at a 70.0% rate, which is #364 (in a bad way) out of 365 teams. The hope has to be that Cluff and Jacobsen will help. While not a great shot-blocker, SDSU opponents shot 13.3% worse at the rim with Cluff in the game. Jacobsen only played 26 minutes last year before being saddled with an injury, but if his 14.3% block rate in incredibly limited minutes would've projected out to the 4th best in the country.
2025-26 Outlook
Offensively, Purdue just might be the best team in the country. They return 77.3% of their scoring, everyone is high-efficiency, and the holes they had in the offense seem to be filled adequately by Cluff, Jacobsen, and Murphy. They may not be as deep as last year's team, but if that gets more minutes out of Loyer, TKR, and Cox, that could be a good thing. Every question about this team comes on the defensive end. They need the bigs to shore up the paint. Elite offenses are simply too good at getting the ball down low and eventually someone is going to take advantage. In 10 of Purdue's 12 losses last year, they allowed 54+% on two-point field goals. Getting from good back to elite is going to require better interior defense. On paper, this is the toughest game Marquette has on the schedule. Fans are probably best off penciling this in as a loss and treating it like found money if the Golden Eagles manage to pull off the road upset.
Marquette Connection
The last time Marquette went to Mackey, they were underdogs with a roster that had many fans questioning how the season would go. That was back in 2022, when unranked Marquette vs unranked Purdue on November 15th seemed like a relatively low stakes game on the NCAA calendar, but come March we learned it was a matchup between Big 10 double-champs and 1-seed Purdue and Big East double-champs and 2-seed Marquette. The first half was a close affair with 9 lead changes as Marquette took a 2-point cushion into the locker room. A 12-1 run midway through the first saw Marquette take a 56-47 road lead as it looked like Marquette might pull off the upset. The moment when the air came out of Marquette's sails was with eight minutes to go. After Tyler Kolek stretched scored to stretch the lead to 60-54, Purdue turned the ball over. Freshman Chase Ross pulled up for a transition three and missed the shot. Kam Jones got the rebound and kicked it back to Ross, who missed again from two. Oso Ighodaro grabbed that offensive board, found Ross again, and he missed a third time. Purdue finally corralled the rebound, scored on a transition three to cut the lead to 60-57 and start a 17-2 run that ultimately secured the 75-70 comeback win for the Boilermakers. Then-freshman guard Braden Smith led the way with 20 points for Purdue. On December 13th, once again at Mackey, Chase Ross will have his chance to atone as Marquette again tries for that road upset over Purdue.