How Scott Moe got his groove back, and sees the bright side of the trade crisis
Scott Moe sounds like a changed man, and it is both fascinating and illustrative to listen to him. Ottawa is no longer an impediment to Saskatchewan’s success; it might even be part of the solution. But that’s not all that’s on his mind.
“The generational opportunity that we have here is one I hope we don’t let pass by,” says the Saskatchewan premier. “And maybe that, in some ways, is determining a little different approach that I, myself, and our government, has taken with a new prime minister.
“We see these opportunities before us, and we’re really trying to change our tone so that we’re able to actually work together to achieve them,” he adds.
Since arriving back home this week from his recent trade mission to China — hopefully a step in the direction of persuading Beijing to back down on punishing tariffs on Canadian canola — the Saskatchewan premier has softened his tone toward Ottawa, and he’s waxing optimistic on the silver linings in this trade crisis. It’s enough to make one wonder what he saw and heard in China.
In a media scrum earlier this week, Moe chided journalists for their focus on the tariff challenges and failure to report on the potential opportunities. Loath to be accused of cynicism — who wants to be lumped in with nattering nabobs of negativism? — in a recent one-on-one conversation with Moe, I ask him to tell me more about these so-called opportunities.
Obviously pleased with the question, Moe enumerates the projects in Saskatchewan that just need a little punt to get over that finish line; sectors in his province that can be helped along by the momentum of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s nation-building campaign.
First, there are uranium mining projects that have provincial approvals, just “waiting to find their way through the federal regulatory process,” he says. These would create jobs, he reports, for northern and indigenous communities, “ethical jobs … as well as sustainable jobs for communities that otherwise don’t have a lot of other employment opportunities.”
Second, “we have the opportunity to move further into the ag value-added space,” he declares. “You know, trade, tariffs, market access; all of these things — it’s a different conversation when you’re talking about ingredients as opposed to raw agriculture products.”
While I don’t disagree, I can’t resist pointing out that some of these projects have stalled.
Viterra’s July merger with U.S.-headquartered Bunge Global SA meant there was a reassessment of its plans to build the world’s largest integrated canola crushing facility in Regina. “Yeah, well, we are in a global environment,” Moe responds, “so there’s going to be an American and a global touch.”
But Saskatchewan has homegrown companies and we’re getting into opportunities for high value pulse ingredients (edible dried seeds from the legume family, including dried peas, beans, lentils, chickpeas), he assures me in an upbeat tone. And, he enthuses, “add to that the irrigation project and the higher value-added crops, the sky’s the limit on the value per acre.”
The third opportunity on Moe’s list is oil. If there was more certainty in regulatory policy governing the oil industry, this sector could be firing on all cylinders, he suggests. While Saskatchewan oil wouldn’t find its way into a further-west pipeline from Fort McMurray to Prince Rupert, that oil pipeline would mean a higher price for Saskatchewan oil flowing to the U.S. And, he notes, it would free up more space on the rails for Saskatchewan’s other exports — including potash and agri-food products.
The premier is determined to assure me the big, beautiful, blue prairie sky is not falling. In fact, he’s quite philosophical: “I think the greatest opportunity — since I’ve been elected, maybe this generation, is actually, to determine our own destiny.” For Saskatchewan, that means being able to provide “the world with some of the most sustainably produced products that you can find on Earth.”
Things have changed: “What is today, and what will be for the foreseeable future, is different than it was yesterday,” he says, talking about Canada’s trade relationship with the United States. That fact also has implications for relations within Canada.
“My urging to the federal government, and to my colleagues at the subnational level,” he says: “We need to do our level best to not pit one industry against another, to support the federal government in finding what’s the quickest and the strongest and in the best interest of Canadians … what the best path forward looks like.
“It might be some small tariffs on a number of different industries,” he suggests, “or all industries, potentially blanket tariffs, hopefully zero, but they might be a small amount.
“But that is better for Canadians than trying to backstop and support industries that are, you know, tens of billions of dollars in size,” Moe argues. “Because quite simply … we just can’t afford that for any length of time.” And then Moe crunches the numbers:
A 20 or 30 or 40 per cent loss in revenues on a $43 billion canola industry is $10-, $15- or $20-billion, he reports; that’s one industry. “Bring in the auto industry, which is similar, maybe just slightly smaller in size, that’s another $10 billion,” he adds. “The steel industry, I think it’s about a $15-billion industry, bring in five there.
“We don’t have $40- or $50-billion to start, you know, propping up industries that quite honestly can function quite well on their own, as long as we have that market access.”
The Saskatchewan-led trade mission to China didn’t bring about Beijing’s capitulation on the anti-dumping claims against Canada at the World Trade Organization (WTO). But Moe sees the engagement as a step in the right direction. The WTO process takes roughly three years for any type of ruling, he explains, and “I think the North American economy, for sure, needs to find a path forward much sooner than that; three months would be long enough, let alone three years.”
What does Moe hope to see in the months ahead? “A number of different ministers — maybe trade, agriculture, foreign affairs — starting to engage with their counterparts in the lead-up to the G20, the APEC summit,” ultimately resulting in a face-to-face between Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping, and some resolution, as other countries including Mexico and Europe have achieved.
For the last decade, the Saskatchewan government railed against Ottawa, even taking the feds to the Supreme Court of Canada to challenge the fairness of federal policies. The premier speaks candidly about his change of heart:
“Today, what’s happening, is we as Canadians, not as the province of Saskatchewan or a specific industry, but we as Canadians, are having things done to us — in the way of market access, tariff conversations, trade relations — from other leaders outside of Canada. We need to come together and we need to defend what is truly the Canadian economy and the Canadian opportunity, moving forward.”
It’s a breathtaking change of tone, attributable in part, I conclude, to two things. First, Carney’s nation-building plan emphasizes the worth of the resource sectors in their ability to carry Canada through this storm. And second, Moe has a sense of nation-wide public support at his back.
Carney will have to deliver on the optimism.
Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our newsletters here.