Wayback Wednesday: What If…Kobe Bryant Broke the Scoring Record?
This is Wayback Wednesday, your midweek blast from the past! From retrospectives of basketball games and their interesting features, to republished articles and looking at NBA history through the lens of the virtual hardwood, Wednesdays at the NLSC are for going back in time. This week, I’m pondering another historical NBA What If, specifically what if Kobe Bryant broke the all-time scoring record?
Even before he became a star, many people had correctly predicted that Kobe Bryant would go down as one of the all-time greats. There’s a reason that he was tapped to be the cover player and namesake of the NBA Courtside series, and also appeared on the cover of NBA Action 98 – a forerunner of NBA 2K – while still a bench player in his second season. Robert Horry certainly believed in his young teammate back then. I recall a magazine article published during the 1998 season that quoted Big Shot Bob’s claim that Kobe Bryant would be the one to finally break the all-time scoring record.
While that prediction didn’t come true, it wasn’t too far off the mark! Kobe ended up joining the 30,000 point club, finishing his career third on the all-time scoring leaders after surpassing Michael Jordan. Throw in his countless incredible performances and career accomplishments including five rings, and it’s no wonder that a lot of fans felt that Bleacher Report ranking him as the 11th best player in history was insulting. That raises an interesting question: would Kobe Bryant have a different legacy if he had in fact broken the all-time scoring record? Let’s take a look back…way back…
The obvious place to start is to look at how close Kobe came to topping fellow Lakers Legend Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. A total of 33,643 points saw Kobe Bryant finish 4,745 points short of becoming the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. This paradoxically places the record both within striking distance and out of reach. It’s an attainable total, as an average of 29 ppg while playing all 82 games would get there in just two years. That’s not unthinkable for Kobe in his prime; he scored a total of 5,262 points between the 2006 and 2007 seasons, and 4,753 between the 2007 and 2008 campaigns. At most, three healthy years should’ve been enough for him to get the remaining 4,745 points.
Of course, the problem is that by the time Kobe reached 33,643 points, his prime was in the rear view mirror. As he said in his famous “Dear Basketball” letter, he didn’t have anything left to give. “My heart can take the pounding. My mind can handle the grind. But my body knows it’s time to say goodbye.” There was no way that Kobe Bryant was playing two or three more seasons after 2016 and putting up the numbers that he needed to break the all-time scoring record. Mind you, like any What If, we need to consider the most favourable scenario. And so, if Kobe Bryant doesn’t tear his Achilles in 2013, what were his chances of passing Kareem for the scoring record?
First of all, if we’re winding back the clock, we need to take away the 2,026 points he added during his final injury-plagued seasons. Kobe finished the 2013 season with a total of 31,617 points, which is 6,771 points short of what was then the record. There were actually two games left on the schedule when Kobe went down, so had he been healthy, we can safely assume that total would’ve been slightly higher. Kobe’s average on the season was 27.3 ppg and he was averaging 30.5 ppg in April before tearing his Achilles, so for the sake of this What If, we could feasibly spot him another 60 points. To keep things simple though, let’s stick to 6,771 points to become the career leader.
With all due respect to Kobe, that’s probably not attainable in just two years. Indeed, only Wilt Chamberlain has totalled that many points in the span of two seasons (7,062 between 1961 and 1962, and an astronomical 7,615 between 1962 and 1963). It’s far more realistic over three years though, requiring an average of 27.5 ppg if playing all 246 games. If missing an average of around 3 games per season – as Kobe did from 2006 to 2013 – then that average jumps to 28.7 ppg. Seeing as how Kobe averaged 27.9 in 2012 and 27.3 ppg in 2013, and went on to play three more seasons anyway, he definitely had a legitimate chance of breaking the record if he’d remained healthy.
To that point, I imagine that Kobe would’ve really started gunning for the record once it became clear that he had an excellent shot at it! With the green light to shoot more three-pointers, emphasis on spacing, and handcuffed defenses that were coming into vogue, it’s not impossible that a healthy Kobe Bryant could’ve had some of his best career scoring marks from 2014-2016. Furthermore, who’s to say that he wouldn’t have attempted to play beyond the 2016 season if he hadn’t suffered that devastating Achilles tendon injury? A fourth season beyond 2013 – and maybe even more – would give him an even better shot at topping 38,387 points, and perhaps then 40,000, too.
If nothing else, until Kobe Bryant had his final years derailed by that injury, I’d argue that he was actually in a better position to challenge the all-time scoring record than Karl Malone. Although The Mailman had 36,374 points entering what would be his final season, he would’ve needed to average at least 24.6 ppg in 2004 in order to pass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. That could’ve been a realistic scenario as late as 2000, but by 2003, Malone’s scoring average had declined each of the previous three seasons. Even if he’d remained in Utah, breaking the record probably would’ve required him to play into 2005. Conversely, Kobe’s scoring average was still up where it needed to be.
Looking back, it’s impressive that Kobe Bryant came as close as he did to breaking the all-time scoring record. He’s the only player in the top five to have a season in which he had a single digit scoring average. He also spent his first eight years playing alongside Shaquille O’Neal, another player who finished his career in the top 20 for career points. It wasn’t until their final two years together that Kobe bested Shaquille O’Neal’s scoring average as the first option on those Lakers teams. And of course, not only did Kobe play limited minutes early on and have to share the ball with Shaq, but his totals were impacted by two lockouts that led to shorter seasons in 1999 and 2012.
On top of that, Kobe missed more than ten games in four of his first nine seasons. His scoring also dropped from 30 ppg in 2003 to 24 ppg in 2004 after the Lakers added Karl Malone and Gary Payton. In short, even before those final three injury-riddled years in the NBA, there were factors that cut into Kobe’s points totals, even as he was raising his scoring average and giving defenders nightmares. Sure, playing 20 seasons certainly helped increase those final tallies, but compared to LeBron James, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Karl Malone, Kobe Bryant didn’t have the same advantages when it came to racking up 2000-point seasons and vying for the all-time scoring record.
And yet, there he is in fourth place as of writing! In reaching that mark, he passed Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain, though they had more scoring titles, higher career scoring averages, and also each reached the 30,000 point mark in less than 1,000 games. Nevertheless, had Kobe Bryant broken the all-time scoring record, it would’ve been a huge accomplishment. Since that was indeed feasible at one point, we’ve come to the pertinent question in this What If scenario: what would it mean for Kobe’s legacy? There are some who already believe he surpassed MJ as the greatest of all-time and still holds that honour, but would the record solidify their argument?
As I said when I considered the ramifications of Karl Malone breaking the all-time scoring record, I do think it would change the conversation; especially if Malone had achieved it some ten years earlier. I still believe that if The Mailman had become the league’s all-time leading scorer, the record would be viewed a little differently. It’d still be seen as a huge accomplishment of course, but once again, I think the fact that it would now belong to someone who was never considered to be the best player in the league – let alone of all-time – would change the perception. We’d still admire the longevity, but it’d be a less popular argument in the GOAT debate than it’s become.
In other words, anyone who came along and broke the all-time scoring record after Malone did – whether it was Kobe Bryant or LeBron James – would now be topping a mark that didn’t seem as unbeatable, providing you’re lucky with health and longevity. Again, it would still be seen as a big deal, but there’s something about besting Kareem – a six-time champion and legitimate candidate in the GOAT debate – that means more than if Karl Malone had ended up with the record. Additionally, the record would’ve stood for only 21 years instead of almost 39, only to be broken around ten years later and then once more some seven years after that. It wouldn’t feel quite as unattainable.
However, let’s say that Karl Malone still falls short of breaking the all-time scoring record, leaving the door open for Kobe Bryant to claim that distinction sometime around 2016. While that still doesn’t necessarily solidify the argument for being the GOAT, or even the greatest scorer in NBA history – again, MJ and Wilt’s numbers in shorter careers shouldn’t be ignored – it’d definitely be different than if The Mailman had attained the record around a decade earlier. Kobe was looked upon as the best player in the league during his prime, winning without Shaq and building an amazing resume. Unlike Malone, he’s in the conversation for top 10 all-time at the very least.
When you add an achievement such as breaking the all-time scoring record to the list of accomplishments that Kobe Bryant can boast, it does potentially make a difference when ranking the all-time greats. LeBron going on to best Kobe’s new record would probably feel similar to him topping Kareem for the mark, since he’d still surpass a GOAT candidate and former face of the league. At the same time, it would mean that LeBron would be breaking a record that’s less than 10 years old instead of one that’s stood for almost 40 years. He’d also be taking the crown from a generational peer, which wouldn’t support the asinine “evolution”/”plumbers and dentists” rhetoric.
That’s not to say that it wouldn’t be an incredible feat, but the sheer length of time that Kareem Abdul-Jabbar held the all-time scoring record does add to its mystique. If Kobe had broken the all-time scoring record in 2016, LeBron topping that new mark in 2023 wouldn’t be quite as special as breaking a record that had been set some eight months before he was even born. The fact that Kobe would’ve set the record despite being stuck on the bench for his first two years, sharing the ball with another all-time great scorer, and having multiple seasons cut short by injuries and lockouts, would undoubtedly make for a fascinating (and heated) debate when comparing the two.
At the end of the day though, while it might’ve been mathematically possible for Kobe Bryant to break the all-time scoring record if he’d stayed healthier towards the end of his career, it remains a What If that can never be proven. Still, it’s interesting that even though Karl Malone was the closest to breaking the record before LeBron finally did, Kobe arguably had a better chance prior to his Achilles injury. At the very least, he still had a decent shot circa 2013. Of course, there are a few What Ifs involving Kobe that are interesting to ponder. Had he signed with the Clippers in 2004, or been traded to the Bulls in 2007, the 2000s and early 2010s would’ve turned out very differently!
More sombrely though, as we approach what should’ve been Kobe’s 47th birthday, it’s impossible not to wish and wonder what if the tragic events of January 26th 2020 had not come to pass. To that end, whatever What Ifs his career may have produced, they pale in comparison to the nine lives lost in that fatal helicopter crash. Nevertheless, while we may wonder What If, between real life and the virtual hardwood, Kobe left basketball fans with a plethora of fond memories. Even though he didn’t break the all-time scoring record as Robert Horry once predicted he would, Kobe Bryant still had a remarkable career that made him one of the greatest basketball players of all-time.
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