ACC Preview #3 - Wake Forest

The Deacons could improve and still fall down the ACC standings

After five seasons, how should Wake head coach Steve Forbes be seen?

Toss out his first season (6-16) because of our rule that no one should have Covid years held against them. It was an impossible situation, he got the job late and...well, no one was going to win at Wake Forest under those circumstances. Still, Wake Forest improved a lot during a challenging season.

Since then he’s turned in a 25-10 year, 19-14, 21-14 and 21-11 last year. In the second year, Wake made the NIT Quarterfinals and the year before last, the NIT second round.

His overall record is 92-65 (.586) and 50-48 in ACC play.

Certainly Wake is competitive again most nights and his open, easy, occasionally flaky personality is a huge improvement over that of predecessors Jeff Bzdelik and Danny Manning, both of whom were painfully introverted.

His personality no doubt has endeared him to Wake fans, who were in open rebellion during the Bzdelik era and apathetic during Manning’s time.

He’s certainly a competent coach who has adapted reasonably well to the portal era, but Wake has not made the NCAA tournament since Manning got them to the First Four in 2017.

Prior to that, the last trip was in 2009-10 under Dino Gaudio, when Kentucky obliterated them, 90-60 in the round of 32.

Wake Forest hasn’t gotten as far as the Sweet Sixteen since Skip Prosser and Chris Paul got them there in 2003-04.

In short, Wake’s glory days are increasingly in the past. Tim Duncan, Randolph Childress, Josh Howard and Muggsy Bogues are not walking through that door, folks.

But what does Forbes have to offer this year? Can Wake move up?

Tricky question.

In the past, finishing fourth in the ACC would be pretty good. Well, not last year. Outside of Duke, Clemson, and a Louisville program that roared back to life under Pat Kelsey, no one else was particularly imposing.

Wake could have made a run at the tournament if they had won a few more winnable games late in the season. The Demon Deacons were not demonic at FSU, losing 72-70. They lost to a dreadful NC State team, 85-73 and to an equally bad Virginia by a nearly identical 83-75. Their last gasp came in the ACC Tournament, where they lost to an inexplicable UNC team, 68-59.

If they had beaten UNC and at least played Duke well, it might have been enough, but that didn’t happen. And keep in mind that some thought that UNC’s solid showing against Duke, at least late in Charlotte, might have earned them their First Four spot.

Last year’s Wake team lacked...something. So what about this year’s model?

Forbes loses some nice contributors. Davin Cosby, Cameron Hildreth, Parker Friedrichsen, Ty-Laur Johnson, Hunter Sallis and Efton Reid are all either out of egibility or have just moved on to greener pastures.

He does return Omaha Billiew, Juke Harris, Tre’Von Spillers, Marqus Marion, Will Underwood, and Vincent Ricchiuti.

Spillers was a reasonably effective wing, getting 33.3 mpg and putting up 9.9 points while grabbing 7.7 rebounds, which led the team. Billiew could be a significant talent but he was injured for much of the season, so we haven’t seen what he could do. He was a 5-star in high school.

Harris is still thin and didn't shoot well as a freshman, so he has work to do. We’ll have to see where he is, but he got 19 mpg last season. Marion redshirted after an ankle injury, but as a freshman, he got 11 mpg. He’s had a year to get stronger, so we’ll see.

Forbes brings in five portal pieces: Nate Calmese, a 6-3 junior from Washington State, Myles Colvin, a 6-5 sophomore from Purdue, Mekhi Mason, a 6-2 junior from Washington, Sebastian Akins, a 6-2 freshman from Denver and Cooper Schwieger, a 6-10 sophomore from Valparaiso.

Calmese, who is on his fourth school, averaged 15.2 ppg for the Cougars last season. He was a poor three point shooter - just 29.2 percent - but hit 47.4 percent overall. He’s also turnover prone.

Colvin didn't make a huge mark at Purdue, getting 4.4 ppg and 1.8 rebounds, but he’ll have an opportunity to do so with the Deacs.

Mason shot well at Washington, hitting 40 percent from behind the line and scoring a shade under 10 ppg, which would be a major help for Wake Forest as the Deacs were an awful three point shooting team last season. He also spent two years at Rice before heading west.

Akins was the Summit League Rookie of the Year last season, as the Concord native averaged 12.7 ppg, 2.2 rebounds and 2.7 assists for Denver. He should be a major asset.

As for Schweiger, he was a productive big man at Valparaiso, putting up 15.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 2 blocks this past season. He’s also a decent three point shooter, breaking even at 33 percent.

We haven’t seen him play, but like Akins, he may have proved himself at a smaller school and worked his way up to a bigger stage. Being from Kansas doesn’t mean that he’s a natural player, but like being from the Triangle, it means that he’s exposed to a lot of basics and fundamentals that kids who grow up away from basketball dominant areas might not get early on.

Interestingly not only is he the second Cooper in the ACC in the last two years - there may be more, we’re not counting - but he’s certainly the second Cooper to have a twin brother.

In his case, his twin is Carson. A bit smaller at 6-8, Carson also plays for Valpo.

If you didn’t know, Valparaiso changed its nickname from the Crusaders to the Beacons, which means that Schweiger will go from a Beacon to a Deacon.

Forbes rounded up three freshmen as well - 6-3 Isaac Carr from Portland, 6-4 Jaylen Cross from nearby Greensboro and 6-5 Anson Beard from New York, New York.

Carr is seen as a 4-star prospect who might surprise a bit. He’s generally seen as a shooter but Wake sold him on playing at the 1, 2, or 3 spot and he clearly thinks he’s not limited to just being a shooter. He has also said really nice things about the culture at Wake Forest.

Cross averaged 15.1 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game as a senior and hit 57 percent from the floor. His three point shooting wasn’t great at 23 percent but he could improve that with some work.

There’s not a lot of information about Beard out there so presumably he’s not expected to have a major impact this coming season.

Whether he does or not, Forbes has an interesting group. The problem for Wake Forest is this: the Deacs could be much better and still finish farther down the ACC standings.

First thing to keep in mind is that the hill is probably going to be steeper. Duke will remain difficult. UNC has built a solid roster. NC State will be a different beast with Will Wade in charge. Louisville is going nowhere. Clemson will be difficult as long as Brad Brownell sticks around. Notre Dame should be better and Miami and Virginia are on a recovery path.

If we were Wake fans, we’d be cautiously optimistic. Forbes has a solid history as a coach and as a talent evaluator. As Mike Krzyzewski once said, he has an ability to build a team quickly.

And this is important, given Wake’s history: he’s an extrovert. Bzdelik and Manning were not. Dino Gaudio was guarded. Skip Prosser was a good coach, but he was a bit remote.

Dave Odom? Quite outgoing. Media people adored him. Bob Staack? Dour and sour. Carl Tacy? Not really a warm and fuzzy guy.

It might be coincidental, but Wake Forest’s best runs have been under extroverted coaches: Bones McKinney got Wake to the Final Four. Odom got Randolph Childress and Tim Duncan to Reynolda. Prosser was not a natural extrovert but he managed well enough.

The quiet, reserved and withdrawn coaches didn’t really get the fan base. Wake is a passionate basketball school that struggles to keep up with Duke and UNC and, at times, NC State. Having a leader they can look up to is a really big deal.

Forbes provides a lot of that and his personality will allow Deacon fans to be more forgiving than they were with Manning or, God forbid, Bzdelik. We’ve never seen a fan base hate their coach the way Wake fans hated Bzdelik. It was basically an open rebellion.

There still seems to be good will for Forbes and there will be more if he makes the tournament this year, but ultimately the bottom line is winning. And Wake hasn’t done enough of that lately. It’s probably time to get it done.