Wimbledon’s final 8 players, ranked by championship chances for men and women
Let’s rank the remaining field at Wimbledon, from Carlos Alcaraz and Aryna Sabalenka to the potential Cinderellas.
Tennis is a finicky sport to predict. There are mountains of analytics to rely on; forehand spin rate, first-serve percentage, net point advantages, and plenty of others. But actually applying this data to predict the results of Grand Slam tournaments is difficult for both the men’s and women’s draw. Women play best-of-three matches, and so there is a tremendous amount of variance in any one single match, given the relatively small number of games played. Men play best-of-five (which is still plenty unpredictable), but only in majors, so most of their match data is from best-of-three matches. History has shown us that’s a totally different skill set.
However, we do get to watch these players against each other a fair amount, and how their play styles clash may tell us more than a simple round of analytics in such a fluid sport. And even if you don’t care about any of that, this can still be your crash course in who these people even are if you’ve never heard of any of them. With all that in mind, here’s who is probably going to win the Wimbledon Championships out of the Top 8 from each side, ranked from most to least likely.
Women’s draw
Tier 1: Elite Contenders
1. Aryna Sabalenka
With the women’s draw imploding on itself (five out of the top six seeds lost before the fourth round), Sabalenka has a cleaner runway than ever to capture her first Wimbledon title. She has been a cut above all of her competitors for the entire tournament, and has yet to lose a set on her way to the quarterfinals. The only Top 20 seed in her way to the final is American Amanda Anisimova, who does have a 5-3 record against the Belarusian. However, Sabalenka beat her this year in the Roland Garros Fourth Round. She’s going to be hard to stop.
2. Iga Swiatek
It’s easy to forget how dominant Swiatek has been in her young career considering her relatively lackluster year. But she and Sabalenka have been peers more than anything, and Swiatek has a terminator mode she can switch on where she just doesn’t miss for two straight hours. Her side of the bracket isn’t nearly as easy as Sabalenka’s, but she’s still better than the rest of the field by a decent margin.
Tier 2: The 18-24-year-olds
3. Amanda Anisimova
Anisimova is only 23, but has already secured a WTA 1000 title in 2025 in Qatar. She’s on the upswing, though middling major results continue to prevent her entrance into the true top tier. This could be her chance, though, and she’s one of the few players remaining who could plausibly beat the top two.
4. Mirra Andreeva
The 18-year-old is possibly the single wildest wild card of this draw. When you’re that young and ranked seventh in the world, every passing year brings questions of if this will be the year when potential becomes powerful. But she’s already got plenty of power, with a ferocious serve and two-handed backhand that trades spin for elite pace. Andreeva has all the tools to make it at least to the semifinals, and who knows how far she can go from there?
Tier 3: I am familiar with their game… but I will be surprised
5. Belinda Bencic
A former teenage wunderkind, I will always remember watching Bencic as a young twenty-something paired in mixed doubles with some guy named Roger Federer at the Hopman Cup, an international team tournament in Perth that has a special place in my heart. But then the Swiss contender went and won the 2021 Olympic Gold Medal, cementing her place in the women’s singles lexicon. She’s a former Top 5 player, and following maternity leave in 2023, I would personally love to see Bencic capture her first grand slam. She has her work cut out for her, but it would be a great story.
6. Liudmila Samsonova
Samsonova doesn’t have a lot of proof of concept in Grand Slams — this will be her first ever major quarterfinal — but this is the type of player who you don’t want to mess around with. She’s barely been tested in this tournament so far, and has rounded out her game recently and is making deeper runs in majors as of late. Among the field, she’s definitely more of a dark horse than a serious contender. But Samsonova could give Swiatek plenty of trouble in the quarterfinal.
Tier 4: Cold War Competitors
7. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Fun fact: while there are plenty of Russian players left, Pavlyuchenkova is the last player remaining in the tournament who was legally born in the Soviet Union. While it would be truly something if the hammer and sickle won a major in 2025… it doesn’t seem particularly likely.
8. Laura Siegemund
Not from the Soviet Union but born before the fall of the Berlin Wall, the 37-year-old German is the feel-good story of this tournament, as the three-time doubles major winner is making a miracle run through the singles bracket. But I would be floored if that run doesn’t end here.
Men’s Draw
Tier 1: Elite Contenders
1. Carlos Alcaraz
Until somebody proves otherwise, anybody not named Alcaraz or Sinner has effectively no chance of winning this thing. Between them, though, I give the edge to the Spaniard, given his absurd comeback in the French Open Final; colloquially known as the greatest tennis match ever played. While Sinner just… doesn’t lose, Alcaraz has a volcanic forehand and drop shot winner ability that makes him a menace on grass. There’s a reason he’s the two-time defending champion.
2. Jannik Sinner
Not far behind (or not behind at all depending on who you ask) is this absolute freakazoid wizard robot destroyer whose compact stance and efficient game can basically destroy anyone not named Carlos Alcaraz. Until Sinner proves he can win a major on grass, he’s a notch below the top spot. But it’s not really a question of if Sinner will win Wimbledon, but when.
Tier 2: He’s literally the GOAT but not as good as those other two
3. Novak Djokovic
He’s the best to ever do it, but I admittedly do not see how the Joker beats both Alcaraz and Sinner, and probably neither does he — there’s a good reason why he’s considering retirement. But imagine if he actually does beat Sinner in the semifinal and then Alcaraz in the final? That would be absolute cinema.
Tier 3: The Americans
4. Ben Shelton
I’ve been slowly but surely becoming a Shelton believer, because he has a thing that can be better than his opponent’s thing: he can rip 145-mile-per-hour serves. His forehand is also tuned to the modern game, regularly ripping triple-digit speeds down the line with his wrist-slingshot form. He hasn’t been able to handle the true top level yet — he’s a combined 1-8 against Alcaraz and Sinner all time — but I believe he can get there. As for this next guy…
5. Taylor Fritz
I have to put him here, but I don’t want to. As an American tennis fan, Fritz is a player who has driven me insane for my entire adult life. He is always the highest-seeded American man, but has never come close to beating top players in five-set matches. Because of inflation, Fritz might retire as one of the highest-earning players by prize money. But he might do so without ever winning a major.
Tier 4: Best of luck, guys
6. Karen Khachanov
Khachanov has always been known as a king slayer on the ATP tour, with a pretty substantial number of Top 10 wins over some titans of the game. But he’s 1-9 against Sinner and Alcaraz, so…
7. Flavio Cobolli
Cobolli is one of the harbingers of the global Italian tennis boom, spearheaded by Sinner and Jasmine Paolini at the top level. The 23-year-old has taken advantage of a fairly light draw so far, and could plausibly beat Djokovic if his athleticism can overwhelm the Serbian. But that would only be part one of a hellish trilogy that would require Cobolli to beat the three best players in the world all in a row.
8. Cameron Norrie
The British hopeful will provide some excellent theatre for the Wimbledon crowd against Alcaraz in the quarterfinal, but even the country of Shakespeare won’t be able to make it real.