What will the Toronto Raptors look like with their mystery star?

Brandon Ingram has been a Raptor since February, but has yet to play a single minute. What does this team look like when he’s on the court?

The uncertainty of the 2025 NBA Draft has de-materialized. But what emerged on the other side of the abyss was something jarring, even in comparison to hunting for prospects. Masai Ujiri is gone, but his thought process remains stamped on the roster.

And perhaps no other decision is more significant to the future of the Toronto Raptors than the one Ujiri made twenty weeks ago when he traded for Brandon Ingram.

General manager Bobby Webster is now tasked with completing the puzzle left by his predecessor - what exactly does a Raptors team featuring Brandon Ingram look like?

Ingram has yet to take the court for the Raptors, but he’ll forever be anchored to whatever Ujiri and Co. were mapping out. With the ninth overall pick, the front office selected Collin Murray-Boyles. And while Murray-Boyles could be a defensive mastermind, his bully-connector offensive archetype further clouds Ingram’s ideal lineup composition.

The Raptors are ready to launch the next phase of the re-tool. With ‘player development’ sliding down the list of priorities, the season will ultimately be judged on what Ingram and his carnival of scoring tools look like in a Raptors jersey - and how many wins it leads to.

Sample size rules the sports world, particularly for a player embarking on his 10th season. Let’s venture out of the familiar confines of the Raptors’ locker room and explore three of Ingram’s best seasons.

2019-2020

New Orleans Pelicans (30-42, 13th in the Western Conference)

Ingram: 23.8 points, 6.1 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.6 blocks, 46.3 FG%, 39.1 3P%

PG: Lonzo Ball

SG: Jrue Holliday

SF: Brandon Ingram

PF: Derrick Favors

C: Zion Williamson

Bench: Josh Hart, JJ Redick

Despite the pandemic cutting the 2019-2020 campaign short, Ingram finished what is still one of his healthiest and encouraging seasons to date. The Duke product played in 62 of 72 games and had a career-high in usage and three-point percentage. Ingram also secured his lone All-Star nod and the league’s Most Improved Player award.

Not only was this Ingram’s first season with the Pelicans, but it was also Zion Williamson’s rookie year. However, New Orleans had Williamson on load management, and it resulted in a career-low in usage (30.3), minutes (27.8) and field-goal attempts (15.0).

It’s easy to compare Williamson and Raptors All-Star Scottie Barnes. While Barnes received the greenest-of-lights to get up shots in the last two seasons, the 2021 Rookie of the Year has always been at his best attacking the rim. In 2019, Zion attempted nearly 75 per cent of his shots within three feet. By comparison, Ingram took 24.8 per cent of his shots in the same area.

Conceptually, this iteration of the Pelicans had poor spacing on the floor. The frontcourt duo of Derrick Favors and Williamson combined for 33 per cent from deep on just seven made attempts. Guards Lonzo Ball (37.5 per cent on 6.3 attempts) and Jrue Holliday’s (35.3 per cent on 5.7 attempts) perimeter shooting profile best matches what Immanuel Quickley (37.8 per cent on 6.8 attempts) and RJ Barrett (35.0 per cent on 5.3 attempts) looked like last season. Even with the lack of prolific shooters on the floor, the 2019 Pelicans finished seventh in both three-point attempts (36.9) and percentage (37.0 per cent) due to bench snipers like JJ Redick and Josh Hart. It also didn’t hurt that Ingram shot 39.1 per cent, the highest mark of his career.

2022-2023

New Orleans Pelicans (42-40, ninth in the Western Conference)

Ingram: 24.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks, 48.4 FG%, 39 3P%

PG: CJ McCollum

SG: Brandon Ingram

SF: Herb Jones

PF: Trey Murphy

C: Jonas Valanciunas

BENCH: Jose Alvarado, Josh Richardson, Naji Marshall, Larry Nance Jr.

Note: Zion Williamson only played 29 games

The 2022-23 season is arguably Ingram’s best statistical stretch as a pro, with a career-high in points (24.7) and assists (5.8). He also shot 39 per cent from three and played 34.2 minutes per game, both the second-most in his career.

During this time, Ingram was in the middle of redefining his shot profile, finishing with 3.6 three-point attempts per game, a personal low during his Pelicans tenure. There’s a correlation between Ingram re-visiting his bread-and-butter and Williamson being limited due to injury. Ingram averaged two three-point attempts per game in Los Angeles before expanding his distance in New Orleans (6.2 per game in his first two seasons).

Without Williamson, Ingram led all forwards in usage and not only cemented his playstyle as a mid-range maestro, but also used his newfound gravity to elevate the shooters around him. Per Cleaning the Glass, Ingram finished in the 98th percentile in assist percentage for small forwards. His team also finished second in percentage of assisted three-point makes.

The addition of former Raptor Jonas Valanciunas resulted in a facelift on both sides of the court. Valanciunas discovered his shooting stroke with the Memphis Grizzlies, and that carried over to the Pelicans. Gone was the grim collection of shooting bigs like Williamson, Steven Adams, Willy Hernangomez, and Jaxon Hayes. This change helped push Ingram away from the three-point line and into his mid-range comfort zone.

2023-2024

New Orleans Pelicans (49-33, seventh in the Western Conference)

Ingram: 20.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, 49.2 FG%, 35.5 3P%

PG: CJ McCollum

SG: Brandon Ingram

SF: Herb Jones

PF: Zion Williamson

C: Jonas Valanciunas

BENCH: Trey Murphy, Dyson Daniels, Naji Marshall, Jose Alvarado, Larry Nance Jr., Jordan Hawkins

Spreadsheet-ball has its merits, both with cataloguing the past and predicting the future, but the most valuable stat is always the number of wins at the end of the season. For Ingram, the 2023-2024 season stands above the rest. He was on the court for 38 wins, and the Pelicans finished the regular season with 49 victories - both career-bests.

Like the 2022-2023 roster, this version of the Pelicans was a deep team that shot efficiently and pestered opponents defensively. The starting lineup deployed a combination of athleticism and length that frustrated teams, before doubling down with a bench that overwhelmed the opposition with a horde-like mentality. New Orleans finished sixth best in defensive rating and third in steals per game. Last year, the Raptors were the definition of a middle-of-the-pack team, with a 15th-ranked defensive rating and 16th in steals.

While Ingram didn’t hop into the backseat of the Pelicans’ offence, he did slot into a specific role in a three-pronged attack. Despite taking the fewest shots per game (15.9) since his time with the Lakers, Ingram still finished with 20.8 points per game. With Williamson (22.9) and McCollum (20.0), the Pelicans became the only team in the NBA with a trio of 20-point scorers.