The Raptors are in need of a rising tide
“A rising tide lifts all boats.”
It’s an economic principle based on the idea that overall financial prosperity ultimately benefits all participants.
And while I have reservations on that theory, mainly based on the fact that not all parties benefit equally, I do find the idiom fascinating in a basketball sense.
Because we’ve seen time and time again how the ebbs and flows of a game get summarily dismissed by a tsunami-like effort.
Think back to the now-champion Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 4 of the NBA Finals — swinging a seven-point deficit into a seven-point win on the back of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scoring 15 points in the final frame. OKC won that game despite losing each of the first three quarters, uncharacteristically not dominating the turnover battle and even while shooting a woeful 3-of-16 from distance. How? Well, chief among the many reasons was SGA’s ability to lift himself and the team when it was most desperately needed — plus-16 in his 12 fourth-quarter minutes.
But it’s not always so extreme or apparent. Fast forward to Game 7, and it was the Hamilton, Ont. native understanding how necessary it was to have his peers rise to the occasion alongside him. After splashing his first triple of the game early in the third, SGA followed it up with a pair of assists on back-to-back threes from Chet Holmgen and Jalen Williams — also their first makes from distance — that gave OKC breathing room for the first time all game.
The NBA’s best tough-shot taker and maker, and the reigning league MVP (and now Finals MVP), had every right to shoot in the face of rapidly approaching doubles, but instead trusted his teammates and got them going en route to a playoff career-high 12 assists. So, although SGA finished with 29 points on a not-so-hot 8-of-27 shooting, his ability to feel momentum and spark those around him on the biggest stage — assisting on seven of OKC’s 11 made threes — will be a large part of what’s remembered from the series-clinching victory.
Problem solving at an elite level. It’s a quality that, if demonstrated consistently, distinguishes one from their peers. And one that any team looking to make any real noise needs to have on its roster. Because no team is perfect, and star players overcome those weaknesses anyway. Again, the Thunder winning a down-to-the-wire Game 4 thanks to SGA despite being 5-4 as a team in the clutch to that point, while the Pacers were 9-1, looms as a recent example.
So, as the off-season marches forward, I can’t help but ask myself: Who might be the Toronto Raptors’ rising tide next season?
Conventional wisdom would say it needn’t be one player, but rather a handful, akin to Indiana. A much more replicable model given Toronto’s present construction. The Raptors haven’t identified their SGA or even a facsimile of the superstar, and for all the herculean efforts we’ve grown accustomed to seeing in this star-driven league, we also just saw a motley crew Pacers team push a juggernaut Thunder squad to the brink in the NBA Finals. And hey, given the reality of the apron-centric reality we’re in, that may just be the more common approach moving forward, league-wide.
But I’m still of the belief that an initial swell of momentum often needs a consistent source. A bell-cow running back in the NFL, a dependable pivot in the NHL or a malleable star in the NBA. Guys who can make the lives of those around them easier — finding right in an ocean full of wrong.
So I went searching, or, I guess sailing, through the open seas — much choppier after the surprise departure of now-former team president Masai Ujiri — in hopes of finding that rising tide that might lift all boats in Toronto.
(This will be the first piece in a multi-part series over the coming weeks as I explore the roster to find my answers.)
Naturally, that journey began with Scottie Barnes. He is the face of the franchise, contractually locked in until 2030 and will be making north of $40 million annually after next season, after all.
And while 2024-25 was a time of experimentation for him, this upcoming campaign will be one of expectation.
In an Eastern Conference that no longer has a clear pecking order, the Raptors have an opportunity to force open their window for playoff contention, even if Bill Simmons doesn’t think so. And Barnes’ development as a problem solver, both for himself and the team, will be paramount in achieving that goal. The good news is, despite his box score numbers plateauing, there’s plenty to indicate he’s flowing down that path.
For starters, even while spearheading a team that spent a majority of the season without its starting point guard, faced with a smattering of injuries and routinely featured patchwork lineups, Barnes managed to ensure the Raptors, no matter the context, were still better when he was on the floor. In his team-leading 2,134 minutes, the Raptors were just over 3.0 points per 100 possessions better when he was out there. So, in the simplest terms, whether working alongside starters or carrying bench units, the team rode Barnes’ current in a positive direction.
And it’s no secret that much of that was thanks to his efforts defensively. He remained an impactful backline sweeper/help defender but was also vital to the team’s revamped on-ball efforts, often going against stout perimeter players — a progression in his fourth year as a pro. Opponents on average shot worse when Barnes was the closest defender (per databallr) — nearly seven per cent worse, specifically at the rim (79th percentile). All while his defensive estimated plus-minus of plus-2.0 was 14th in the NBA (97th percentile).
If you’re wondering how the Raptors had the league’s second-best defensive rating after the all-star break, aside from a subpar strength of schedule, the 23-year-old’s hands (almost literally) were all over it. Routinely putting out fires with his swells of effort.
But on the other side of the ball, there’s a lot more to figure out.
Despite plenty of experimenting that went on offensively as a self-creator (92nd percentile for true shot creation attempts per 75 possessions), it’s hard to know what exactly it yielded. For instance, Barnes had a below-average true shooting percentage on isolation, PNR ball-handler and post-up attempts. Meanwhile, a 97th percentile in mid-range frequency last season (per Cleaning the Glass), but a 61st percentile in accuracy, might be a good building block in finding a counter moving forward, but it’s hard to project reliably.
Although, to his credit, the only spot he was an above-average shooter from last season was the short mid-range (approx. 4-14 feet), as he shot 45 per cent on his 352 total attempts — Barnes’ most popular shot location by a notable margin. And some of his self-creation struggles could also be chalked up to where he fell on the scouting report and how much defensive attention he commanded.
The hope is that with a healthy Immanuel Quickley in the mix and Brandon Ingram presumably on the floor next season, who alongside Barnes and RJ Barrett, hold real gravity — IQ and BI were among the upper-third of the league for their positions for spacing shot attempt frequency (i.e., spot-ups, handoffs and off-screens) and held above-average true shooting marks on such looks — and that should change how much room Barnes has available to be a go-to operator and problem solver on the offensive end.
The combination of Barnes and Ingram will be especially fascinating. Because for all the talk about how No. 4 did/didn’t fit alongside Pascal Siakam and supposed overlap, and how similar concerns might be present with Barnes next to Ingram, the former pair was generally productive. The Raptors were better, albeit by a marginal 1.7 points per 100 possessions, in the nearly 5,000 minutes Barnes and Siakam shared the floor. Most notably, however, Barnes was a markedly more productive and efficient scorer with “Spicy P” out there, especially to close games. In fact, in his lone All-Star season (2023-24), Barnes was 24th in the NBA for fourth-quarter scoring (6.4 points per game) before Siakam was traded, and fell to 42nd (5.2) after that. This year, Barnes fell even further, down to 55th (4.8).
It’s also worth noting that although Siakam’s presence boosted Barnes’ abilities on offence, the same couldn’t be said the other way around. Begging the question: will it work with Ingram or be a largely one-sided partnership yet again?
That’s not to say Barnes can’t, or hasn’t, made things easier for those around him. It’s just hard for the numbers to effectively portray that when guys around him don’t often knock down the looks he generates. I continue to re-use the phrase I first heard said by Raptors Republic’s very own Samson Folk: “The Raptors are a team that takes all the right shots, and makes none of them.”
Barnes finished the season 14th in the NBA for potential assists per game (min. 65 games), and his 15.8 potential assists per 100 possessions ranked 99th percentile. Yet the Raptors’ 62.5 per cent effective field goal rate on those boatloads of supposed helpers was well below league average (15th percentile). And still, Barnes managed to finish top 50 in assist percentage (27.9) and was 98th percentile amongst forwards, behind only Jimmy Butler (32.7) and Zion Williamson (28.1).
So, while there remain questions about how Barnes can lift his own game in those “we need you” moments, the onus largely falls on the guys around him more than anything in the “let me help you” department.
One way to fix that is by the Raptors even inching towards being a league-average three-point shooting team. That’d surely go a long way in Barnes’ assist percentage balloon up the board, further paying his efforts in that regard. And for what it’s worth, circling back to the additions of Quickley and Ingram — two above-league-average three-point shooters — might be enough for that make-or-break difference.
In Quickley’s case specifically, he’s also been an exceptional play finisher for most of his career — part of why his juice as an off-ball option has been touted so regularly in a theorized two-man pairing with Barnes. On finishing attempts (transition, cuts, putbacks, PNR rollman) per 100 possessions last season, Quickley’s true shooting percentage ranked 72nd percentile. Should the Raptors get more than 33 games of their starting point guard’s services, it’ll go a long way in aiding Barnes’ development as a problem-solver.
Because, while it is the star forward’s task to find answers, it’s kind of hard to lift a boat that’s already 100 feet underwater.
At the end of the day, whether or not Barnes is that rising tide, someone will have to be. Because for all the potential on the Raptors roster, it’s also not without its warts. A backcourt that’s yet to identify a de facto table-setter and a frontcourt scarce in meaningful size at the rim, to oversimplify. But I’m also not ready to lower my sails on Barnes materializing into the kind of player required to overcome those deficiencies. Because if Toronto’s roster can stay healthy and the supporting pieces go on to fulfill their promise, it’s the perfect conditions for a storm that’ll allow his tide to do a lot of heavy lifting.
In the next part of this series, I’ll dive into Brandon Ingram’s game and how it could be the pressure release valve to ease things up and down the roster.
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