Jonathan Mogbo almost did it all
There were murmurs prior to the second day of the draft, that the Raptors were interested in two bigs: Ulrich Chomche & Jonathan Mogbo. As it turned out, with a quick purchase of a back end draft pick, they were able to nab both. Mogbo being the much older prospect, and the much more NBA ready prospect, was the big man who got the chance to stamp himself at the highest level of basketball this season. And his season was a mix of incredible highs and very sobering lows.
Starting off a high note. Mogbo immediately became one of the best switch bigs in the NBA. He was 8 times as likely to switch in the pick n’ roll, as opposed to any other form of coverage. There are three players that defended over 150 possessions against pick n’ roll ball handlers and kept the points per possession under .700, which is a paltry number. Those 3 players? Alex Caruso, Jonathan Mogbo, and Kris Dunn. Excellent company to keep. Mogbo’s ability to step out with a wide array of players and turn their water off is a truly elite NBA skill. That’s a huge deal, and not to be taken for granted.
In addition to Mogbo’s objective utility in the pick n’ roll, he also provides fairly good pop as a roamer who can playmake on the defensive end of the floor. That playmaking hasn’t yet translated to rim defense — where he wasn’t able to provide a lot of pop, and the smaller stature for a big man might always limit this — but he displayed a lot of competence in passing lanes and as a dig man on drives. The combination of all of these things made him a well above-average defender as a rookie. There were limitations on the glass, where he objectively struggled to hold down a frontcourt spot, and the reason why, to some degree, is because Mogbo has trouble fitting next to a big man on defense, because of his limitations on offense. So, let’s discuss that.
Mogbo needs a tremendous amount of development on offense in regards to playing the role of a big man. He needs far more when it comes to player the role of a jumbo wing that the Raptors idealize him in.
Starting off with what improved: Mogbo took a measurable leap as a jump shooter, to 24-percent from downtown and 73-percent from the free throw line. That might sound funny, but it’s true. Mogbo went 0-2 in his last college season from downtown, and improved from 69-percent at the line, and did so in front of NBA crowds. Meaningful, but obviously not close to what is needed. However, that’s about the only improvement that manifested at the NBA level this year. Other things could be on the way, but we’ve not seen anything yet. Oh yeah, he has a decent left to right cross on bigs as well.
Basically everything else was a major struggle on offense. The foundation of his big man offense at college was significantly less potent. Whether it was the fact that he’s a pretty small screener at the NBA level, or the fact that teams played off of him and made him try to create in the space provided, or the fact that his finishing hasn’t translated to the NBA level yet.
There aren’t really numbers to convey the first two points, but the ebb and flow of the offense definitely suffered if we appeal to the eye test, and the Raptors offense was much worse with him on the floor on average. It was a struggle. The finishing in particular though, was a disaster:
Hook shots: 38-percent
Runners/Floaters: 32-percent
Layups: 39-percent
For an NBA big, that really is not going to cut it. If those numbers don’t improve immediately in year 2, his presence will continue to crater the offense completely. It’s good that Mogbo registered 66 dunks (he missed 10 on the season) to help his impact as a play finisher, but shooting sub-55 percent as a big man is very difficult to stomach.
Mogbo probably won’t ever be able to dunk everything at the NBA level the way he did in college. He no longer overwhelms people with his athleticism, and he’ll face bigger players for the length of his career. What needs to happen, certainly, is a marked improvement to his touch shots – and probably the floater more than anything.
The wing stuff seems so far away that it’s hard to even imagine. He would have to improve almost immeasurably as a ball handler and a shooter. Some players do improve immeasurably at things, so it can’t be ruled out, but I won’t sit around waiting for it.
The big man offense, and some of Mogbo’s latent passing ability/floor processing can see a huge uptick in its effectiveness if he can become a passable play finisher – however that looks. It could be possible that the late season games where he collected a whole bunch of stats against the rudderless April competition, could eventually happen against top end teams if Mogbo can start to leverage a scoring package — of any kind — to manipulate the floor. And even passable offense, for a player who can easily become an extremely strong defender, that would be a huge deal.
All this remains to be seen, of course.
In his rookie season, Mogbo put a lot of stuff on tape. Good and bad – he did everyone a favor by making each very easy to identify.
Have a blessed day.
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