Could the Lakers trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo this offseason?

Unless Nico Harrison is secretly running the Bucks as well, a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade is a long shot for the Lakers this offseason.

The Lakers already pulled off one generational heist since the calendar flipped to 2025. Can they do it again this offseason?

Speculation is already swirling about Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future after the Milwaukee Bucks lost in the first round of the playoffs for the third straight season. Making matters worse, Damian Lillard tore his Achilles in the Bucks’ Game 4 loss to the Indiana Pacers, which jeopardizes his availability at least for next season.

The Bucks have already traded away control of their first-round picks through 2030, which leaves a Giannis trade as perhaps their only way out from a lengthy stay in NBA purgatory.

The Lakers are fresh off their own first-round playoff exit, but their outlook is far less bleak than Milwaukee’s. Once LeBron James finishes his annual dalliance with exploring his offseason options, the Lakers will have all three of James, Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves under contract through at least the 2025-26 season.

They also have their unprotected 2031 first-round pick to dangle in trade talks, along with as many as four first-round pick swaps (2026, 2028, 2030, 2032) after this year’s draft is over.

That begs the question: Could the Lakers jump into the bidding for Giannis if the Bucks decide to move on from him this offseason? The Dončić trade was a reminder to never say never when it comes to Lakers Exceptionalism causing other teams’ executives to lose their damn minds, but the Lakers would be facing a major uphill battle for the Greek Freak.

First, there’s a financial hurdle for them to clear. The Lakers already project to be in close proximity to the $195.9 million first apron next season. If they cross that threshold, they won’t be allowed to take back more salary than they send out in any trade.

Antetokounmpo is expected to earn $54.1 million next season. Rui Hachimura is the Lakers’ highest-paid player other than James and Dončić, and he’s only set to earn $18.3 million in 2025-26. They’d have to aggregate at least four of Hachimura, Dorian Finney-Smith (if he picks up his $15.4 million player option), Austin Reaves ($14.0 million), Jarred Vanderbilt ($11.6 million), Gabe Vincent ($11.5 million) and Maxi Kleber ($11.0 million) to reach Antetokounmpo’s salary.

The Bucks could have plenty of open roster spots and space under the first apron if Brook Lopez leaves as a free agent and Bobby Portis ($13.4 million) and/or Pat Connaughton ($9.4 million) decline their player options. That could make a 4-for-1 deal somewhat feasible from a financial and roster-spot standpoint. However, the Lakers also have to compete with other bidders, which is where their offer could fall short.

Even if the Lakers were willing to give up anything other than LeBron or Luka— Reaves, Dalton Knecht and every first-round pick and pick swap that they can offer — the Bucks’ lack of control over their own first-round picks looms large.

Unless the Bucks are able to claw control of their next two picks back from the New Orleans Pelicans — perhaps as part of a larger blockbuster involving Zion Williamson? — they’ll have no incentive to tank. But if this collection of role players couldn’t even advance past the first round with LeBron and Luka leading the way, how would their joining forces with Kyle Kuzma in Milwaukee lead to greater heights?

Regardless of whether the Bucks can pry control of their next two first-rounders back from the Pelicans, other teams could easily top the Lakers’ best offer. For instance, the Houston Rockets have control over all of their own first-round picks after this year along with fully unprotected first-rounders from the Phoenix Suns in 2025 and 2027. In 2029, they get the best two first-rounders between their own, Phoenix and Dallas. Distant first-round picks from teams built around aging, rickety stars are worth their weight in gold on the trade market.

And even if the Rockets declare Alperen Şengün and Amen Thompson off-limits in trade talks, they could still cobble together an offer loaded with recent top-five picks such as Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Reed Sheppard.

The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are both also teeming with a combination of future draft picks and young prospects that the Lakers couldn’t dream of matching. Their best hope would be a power play from Giannis in which he refused to sign an extension with any team that traded for him other than the Lakers.

However, he still has two guaranteed years left on his contract, so some team might be willing to risk it regardless. (Bah gawd, that’s Masai Ujiri’s music!)

If Bucks general manager Jon Horst develops brain worms and starts leaking concerns about the Greek Freak’s work ethic and/or love of hookah, perhaps the Lakers will be able to sneak in and steal another superstar. Otherwise, they’ll likely have to turn their attention to finding a dynamic center who can protect the rim and clean the glass on one end while giving LeBron and Luka a pick-and-roll partner on the other.