Why the 2025 NFL Draft is the ultimate litmus test for your favorite team

5 NFL Draft 2025 gambles that will show if teams are brilliant or dumb

The first round is in the books, and if the 2025 NFL Draft has taught us anything it’s that no team can agree on this class. Ask anyone who has been covering the draft for a while and they’ll tell you the same thing: This year has been the most bizarre and difficult to parse class in recent memory, which is a product of the how deep this pool is in boom-or-bust players — and severely lacking in elite skill position talent.

From the second the combine ended in Indianapolis the only consensus opinion was that Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter were the only elite talents available in 2025, and from there you had wild swings at every position. Some scouts thought Shedeur Sanders was the best quarterback in the draft class, others had him as a Day 2 pick. Some guys were convinced Jaxson Dart could be molded into a franchise QB, but some felt he was a UDFA at best.

This was the story up and down the draft board. Not only could few people agree on how these prospects slotted, but even inside position groups there were wild swings in opinion of which of these guys would boom, who would busts, and who was just plain better. It’s for this reason that the 2025 NFL Draft is the ultimate litmus test of which front offices have a well-oiled football operation, and who is struggling.

If your team can find differentiate the good from the bad in this class, making the right choices in the best traits of a prospect — then it will be the greatest evidence that the future is bright. Conversely we’re going to learn which teams have a broken scouting process if they gambled and lost at the top of this class.

Here are the big picks to watch in the future to that best typify this process.

The Titans taking Cameron Ward with the No. 1 pick

I’m not saying this was the wrong pick, but it was absolutely one made out of desperation. This is a gamble on arm strength and physical traits being more important than sensible decision making in the pocket. Ward has a big arm, he can throw out of structure — but he’s too prone to play hero ball and gets overly confident in his abilities.

If Ward ends up being just a so-so QB while Shedeur Sanders is able to thrive with his decision making, then this will be a massive indictment of the Titans’ draft process.

The Saints picking Kelvin Banks at No. 9

You don’t pick Banks in the Top 10 unless you believe he’s an NFL offensive tackle, it’s that simple. The issue is that a lot of people see him projected inside at offensive guard long term.

If New Orleans doesn’t get a solid OT out of this then they really reached for an interior offensive lineman when there were better guys on the board — and they could have taken a difference maker like of the the two top tight ends.

The Dolphins taking Kenneth Grant over Derrick Harmon

This was a battle of two space-eating big men in the middle of the defensive line, and a majority of people had Harmon being the better pick. He ended up going No. 21 to the Steelers, while the Dolphins made a bit of a stunning pick with Grant at No. 13.

There’s a good chance both end up being good pros, but this is another pick to revist if Harmon ends up having the better career.

The New York Giants rolling the dice on Jaxson Dart

This was a Brian Daboll pick through and through. Nobody doubts the physical tools of the Ole Miss QB, but there are some jaw-dropping concerns on tape with how he plays. Dart essentially ran a one-read system at Mississippi which didn’t require him to scan the field at all. This has no translation to the NFL, and there will need to be significant coaching to turn Dart into an NFL quarterback.

The lack of full-field progression was so pronounced that some teams had Dart as a Day 3 pick. This gamble on upside is another in the long line of “but he could be Josh Allen!” type decisions, and we’ll need to wait and see if Daboll and the Giants were right.

The Falcons going all-in on James Pearce Jr.

This might tip Atlanta’s hand more than anything. The Falcons gave up their 2026 1st round pick to move up and take Pearce, saying they had considered taking him at No. 15 being a driver behind the move.

It’s big and bold, now we wait to see if it was dumb or not. A lot of teams took Pearce off their board all together after meeting with him, so the Falcons must see something others don’t. This all-in gamble will either transform the Falcons’ pass rush for the next decade — or continue to lock them in mediocrity.