A pollster answers your questions about the 2025 federal election polls

OTTAWA — What is going on with the polls this federal election campaign?

Click here to review the Q&A with Leger pollster Andrew Enns.

 

Things are looking tighter between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre ’s Conservatives with just over 10 days left before the votes are tallied. That’s still a massive and shocking shift for the Tories, who had held a strong lead for over a year before President Donald Trump began threatening Canada’s economy and Liberals brought in Carney as their new leader, after the resignation of the unpopular Justin Trudeau in January.

How did the Conservatives suddenly fall into second place, despite the fact that their polling support numbers are higher than they’ve been for the last two elections?

In fact, some Conservatives are skeptical that the polls truly reflect the reality on the ground, given that Poilievre has been holding massive rallies , at times with more than 10,000-people strong, and Carney’s campaign has been unsettled by controversies and gaffes. Are the polls really capturing all the Conservatives’ supporters who tend to be younger and have been less politically engaged in the past?

Meanwhile, the NDP ’s support appears to have collapsed compared to previous campaigns and the Bloc Québécois is struggling to keep up with the Liberals for support in Quebec. Where have these supporters gone, and why did they suddenly switch so early in the campaign? Does that also mean they could switch back? What happened to Quebec’s strong nationalist voters?

Well, it depends who you ask. Different pollsters are showing different results, with some polls even showing the Conservatives tied with the Liberals or in the lead. The latest Postmedia-Leger poll also shows that Liberal support is overwhelmingly based on fear of Trump, while Conservative support is heavily based on hope for a better future. Results from various pollsters nevertheless show consistently that Carney is perceived by more voters to be able to handle the tariff war with Trump, while Poilievre is considered stronger on domestic issues including cost of living, immigration, and law and order.

Andrew Enns, executive vice president of Leger, the official pollster for Postmedia and the pollster with a consistent record of accuracy answered reader questions on Thursday. The latest Postmedia-Leger poll came out Wednesday, and Andrew took questions about it, about what’s really happening with the polling this election campaign, and how pollsters are measuring support given the difficulty in reaching certain segments of the population. The conversation was moderated by Stuart Thomson.

This is a historic election and a lot could still change in the next 10 days. Review Enns’ answers in the comment section below.

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