Who will the Lakers play in the first round of the playoffs?

The Lakers don’t yet know their opponent in the first round of the playoffs. Who is the most likely team among the Warriors, Nuggets and Wolves to play?

While the Lakers were serious and took care of business early to secure their spot and seed in the playoffs, pretty much the rest of the Western Conference was unserious and left it until the final day for things to be decided.

The top three seeds are the only things solidified in the West heading into the final day, which means the Lakers won’t know their opponent until the results are final.

That being said, there’s a heavy, heavy chance that the Lakers and Warriors will meet. However, there are also possibilities the purple and gold could play either the Nuggets or Wolves as well.

Those are the only three teams, though, in contention as opponents in the first round for the Lakers. Here’s a full look at the convoluted possibilities.

Here are a couple of simplified ways to look at it:

• In 12 of the 16 scenarios (75%), the Warriors finish as the sixth seed and become the Lakers’ opponent.
• The only scenarios where the Lakers don’t play the Warriors involve the Clippers beating Golden State
• Two of the four scenarios in which the Lakers don’t play the Warriors involve the Mavs upsetting the Grizzlies on the road

To that final point, neither the Grizzlies nor the Mavs appear set to take their final game seriously. Memphis has listed Desmond Bane, Zach Edey, Jaren Jackson Jr., Ja Morant, Scotty Pippen Jr. and Luke Kennard as doubtful. Dallas, meanwhile, has listed Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson and P.J. Washington as out and Derrick Lively as doubtful.

Predicting that game, then, is a bit of a fool’s errand.

If both the Wolves, who play the Jazz, and Clippers win, then the Lakers will not play the Warriors. If Golden State wins, then they will play the Lakers, regardless of how the rest of the results shake out.

As you can tell, Golden State is the heavy favorite to play the Lakers in the first round. But they must still take care of business against the Clippers to solidify that. So, if you’re rooting against a Warriors opening round series, suck it up and root for the Clippers on Sunday.

You can follow Jacob on Twitter at @JacobRude or on Bluesky at @jacobrude.bsky.social.