The Rap-Up: The real season begins
The Raptors welcome a pair of underachieving teams to Scotiabank Arena. Can Toronto maintain its current draft lottery standing?
27 and 75.
27 games and some combination of 75-105 ping pong balls will help determine the next stage of the Toronto Raptors’ rebuilding process.
As things currently stand, the Raptors hold the 5th-best lottery odds. That’s not a bad position to be in, considering Toronto’s “torrid” January where the Raptors posted a ** gasp ** winning record (8-7).
Every team chasing the Raptors for more lottery balls have recently improved their odds. Brooklyn traded away Dennis Schroder and Dorian Finney-Smith, before waiving Ben Simmons. Philadelphia continues tripping over its own feet. Chicago (finally) traded away Zach Lavine. Portland has lost four in a row after surprisingly (inexplicably?) winning six in a row.
Toronto’s second-half schedule is the easiest in the league. It’s fair to assume may “drop” a position or two. The Nets have 3 fewer wins and are the most likely team to jump Toronto in the Cooper Flagg standings — a difference of 1.5% or 15 extra lottery balls out of 1000. The Sixers also have 3 fewer wins, but with the 4th-easiest remaining schedule and the ticking timebomb that is Paul George’s and Joel Embiid’s collective health, Philly has enough incentive to make a playoff push.
In order to keep Chicago, Portland, and San Antonio at bay, (each 5-6 wins ahead/behind Toronto) the Raptors will need to pile up the losses in February before the aforementioned easy portion of the schedule (12 of 15 games against teams currently under .500).
Let the tanking season officially begin!
Happy Family Day from our squad to yours! pic.twitter.com/iKm4BtbdzP
— Toronto Raptors (@Raptors) February 17, 2025
February 21 vs Miami Heat
Am I the only one who thinks Pat Riley did well in salvaging the Jimmy Butler fiasco? Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, and Kyle Anderson are all high-end defenders that should help propel the league’s 11th-ranked defense into a top-5 unit. Butler’s departure also opens up more opportunities on the offensive end for Tyler Herro, a first-time All-Star who’s discovering and growing his tool bag.
You don’t have to squint too hard to see that swapping out Butler may have balanced the roster for the present and future. (In addition to the distraction of Butler’s next destination now resolved)
Pat Riley has cobbled together a good mix of All-Stars (Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro), veterans (Terry Rozier, Kyle Anderson, Andrew Wiggins), offensive threats (Herro, Duncan Robinson, Jaime Jaquez), defensive stoppers (Davion Mitchell, Adebayo, Wiggins), promising young guys (Nikola Jovic, Kel’el Ware), and someone to keep people distracted if things go awry (Kevin Love).
Oh, and they have the best coach in the league. Ummm....Heat Culture?!?
Fun fact that may only interest me
Kel’el Ware was, at one point this season, a betting favourite to win Rookie of the Year. That would typically be more newsworthy, but if this season has taught us anything about this year’s draft class, the betting favourite will continue changing week-to-week.
Most comic book enthusiasts will quickly point out that Ware’s first name is an obvious tribute to Superman, whose first name, Kal’el, is only one letter different. The Superman reference isn’t surprising but here’s something that caught my eye: Ware has a burrito named after him at Chipotle!
His obsession with eating at the popular fast-food chain has resulted in a limited-time burrito named after him. In case you’re wondering, the Kel’el Ware Burrito is half chicken al pastor, half steak, and filled with white rice, sour cream, cheese, and lettuce.
Even if that doesn’t interest you, researching Ware allowed me to drop this wonderful tweet.
Heat annonce Kel'el Ware will wear No. 7, which is interesting because Kyle Lowry had asked Goran Dragic's permission before taking it, which now means we know Dragic's Heat number will not be retired.
— Ira Winderman (@IraHeatBeat) June 27, 2024
Prediction
Ulrich Chomche is out for the season with an MCL tear. That’s tough news for Chomche, who has progressed well with the 905. It’s also a double-whammy for Toronto as Chomche was in line for more minutes with the Raptors, thus contributing to the tank. Understanding what’s at stake (likely), Toronto has already announced that Jakob Poeltl (right hip pointer) will join Brandon Ingram (left ankle sprain) on the sidelines.
Adebayo and Ware should feast on Toronto’s thin backcourt. Wiggins should bring a little extra juice in front of his hometown. Mitchell should be extra feisty (if that’s even possible) on the defensive end. Miami covers the -2.5 spread.
February 23 vs Phoenix Suns
Oh boy. Where do we start with Phoenix?
The Suns are a luxury tax-paying team currently sitting outside of the playoff picture. That is the worst combination for any team to be in.
With his team languishing in mediocrity and sitting at 15-18, Mike Budenholzer made the controversial decision to bench Jusuf Nurkic and Bradley Beal. Phoenix has gone 11-11 since that move.
The Bosnian Beast was eventually traded to the Charlotte Hornets — hilarious and unfortunate because he was meant to take over Mark Williams’ spot....until Williams’ trade to the Lakers was rescinded and bumped Nurkic back to a reserve role. Beal’s numbers are actually quite good (17.4 points on 50/40/82 shooting), but certainly not ideal to be paying over $50 million per year on a reserve player.
The situation in Phoenix is much more dire than what’s happening in Philadelphia because the Suns are in a much more competitive conference AND they gave up tons of draft capital to construct this roster.
Kevin Durant’s career cannot end on this team.
The last time a Kevin Durant team was three games under .500 this late in a season was the 2008-09 Thunder.
— Shane Young (@YoungNBA) February 21, 2025
Back when the iPhone 3G was popular.
Phoenix is now 26-29
Fun fact that may only interest me
$187,904,168 = total salary paid this season and next season to Toronto’s Big 3, Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and Brandon Ingram
$312,105,894 = total salary paid this season and next season to Phoenix’s Big 3, Bradley Beal, Kevin Durant, and Devin Booker
The Raptors’ trio includes 2 players who have yet to hit their prime and a third in the middle of it.
The Suns’ trio include 2 players past their prime and a third in the middle of his.
Prediction
Phoenix is 10-17 on the road, playing its 3rd game in 4 nights, and on the back end of a back-to-back. Yes, they should be fresh from the All-Star break, but this is an ageing team with added pressure to turn things around quickly. The Suns have the hardest remaining schedule, so this is suddenly a must-win game for Budenholzer’s boys. Desperation for one team and tanking motives for another is the formula for a predictable outcome. Phoenix covers the -5.5 spread.
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