Next Up - Illinois

Whatever else you can say ahead of time, no one has any idea of what to expect on Saturday.

Date 2/22 || Time 8:00 || Venue Madison Square Garden || Video Fox

Duke is off to Madison Square Garden Saturday for its annual game in the World’s Most Famous Arena. This year’s opponent? The Fighting Illini.

Duke, as you know, will be without Maliq Brown, who suffered a separated shoulder against Virginia but Illinois has some serious issues too.

First, freshman Morez Johnson broke his wrist blocking a shot against Michigan State and is out for the season. And then, like so many programs and people in general this winter, the flu has hit the Illini hard.

Well, among other things.

Before he had the flu, Tomislav Ivisic, a 7-1 sophomore, had mono and a high ankle sprain a couple of weeks ago.

Six-foot-six freshman Kasparas Jakucionis, a freshman from Lithuania, has electrified Illinois fans, but he may have hit the freshman wall. In his last six games, he shot 2-8 against Ohio State with seven assists and four turnovers. He also shot 2-8 against Rutgers with two assists and three turnovers. Against Minnesota and UCLA, he shot 8-14 and controlled the ball well but against Michigan State, he was 5-15 and against Wisconsin, he scored just six points and had zero assists and seven turnovers.

Of course it’s very possible that he just had a touch of the flu like several of his teammates, including Tre White, who was a Louisville Cardinal last season.

Illini coach Brad Underwood says that he doesn't really know who’s going to be at practice from one day to the next.

We’re not sure exactly who has what but Underwood’s squad has, aside from mono and the flu, has also dealt with norovirus and strep throat.

It’s been so bad that after playing Wisconsin on Saturday Underwood instructed his team not to shake hands with the Badgers so that they would have less of a chance of catching something.

It’s also affecting rebounding, which is a big strength. Johnson was averaging 6.6 rebounds and that’s gone. Ivisic gets 8.3 per game but he isn’t likely to be 100 percent. He grabbed just three against Wisconsin.

Those are serious problems, but we wouldn't underestimate Underwood’s coaching ability or his motivational skills. Our guess is that Illinois will be ready and it’s a talented team.

Jakucionis has been a revelation and he’s in the lottery discussion. He’s averaging 15.6 ppg, 5.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists. Impressively for a freshman, he is pulling the most minutes at 31.1.

Kylan Boswell is his backcourt mate. A 6-2 junior, Boswell is getting 10.9 ppg, 4.9 rebounds and 3.2. assists.

Ben Humrichous, a 6-9 senior, puts up 8.7 ppg, 4.0 rebounds and 1.1 assists. He doesn't shoot well though, hitting just 38.9 percent overall.

Ivicis is solid as noted above. The big guy is getting 12.5 ppg, 8.3 rebonds and 1.9 assists.

Freshman Will Riley started college with a bang, hitting 31 points in his first outing. He’s getting 11.9 ppg, 3.9 rebounds and 2.2 assists. He’s not necessarily a great shooter, hitting 42.6/34.4 percent. However, our guess is that he’s streaky.

White comes off the bench for 9.2 points, 5.3 rebounds and a shade under 1.0 assists. Dra Gibbs Lawhorn is a 6-1 sophomore who gets 7.4 points, 2.0 rebounds and 0.6 assists.

Of course, given the challenges Illinois faces, there’s no way to predict who will play, much less how well.

Given Underwood’s tough-mindedness, it’s surprising that his team hasn’t defended very well: the Illini allow 71.6 points per game, which is 180th nationally, and their defensive rating - .977 - is 44th nationally.

Offensively, they’re 40th at 115.1.

Underwood likes to pressure opposing ballhandlers, a tactic he may have picked up from old boss Bob Huggins.

Like Duke, Illinois likes to switch as much as possible defensively, but he also likes a modified Pack-Line. His version is more aggressive than what Tony Bennett ran at Virginia but it’s still tricky, and if Duke struggles from behind the line, it could be a key for an Illini upset.

And this is no great tactical surprise, but Illinois likes to limit offensive rebounds, viewing that as a key part of defense.

Duke presents some unique challenges. First, Duke essentially starts three point guards, so while you might force Cooper Flagg to pass off, either Sion James or Tyrese Proctor can do quite well running the offense.

Second, Duke moves and shares the ball exceptionally well. And third, while three point shooting is still a work in progress, Flagg and Proctor are both solid. James can hit an open three consistently. And then there’s Kon Knueppel and Isaiah Evans. Either of those guys can explode and rip off a string of threes - as can Proctor.

And while Caleb Foster hasn’t been playing as much, he can hit threes too.

The bigger problem though might be overcoming Duke’s defense. Duke is, as we’ve all heard by now, the biggest team in the country. Khaman Maluach presents major problems, even when he’s not trying to block shots. First, he moves beautifully for a 7-2 guy and switches on to smaller guards with no issue. James is a very good defender and Knueppel is hard-nosed on that end (both ends really). And then there’s Flagg and Proctor.

Flagg is a prodigy in every sense. You can see it in his stats, but stats can’t measure everything. That doesn’t measure how he caught Stanford’s 7-1 Maxime Raynaud trying to play guard and turning his back on Flagg and Flagg stripping him and heading downcourt.

The first cool thing about that play was that Flagg used his outside hand to strip Raynuad while his back was turned. Take a look - it’s not that easy. A lot of guys would have defaulted to their right hand and gotten called for a foul.

The second cool thing was how that play ended, which gets back to the tremendous team chemistry this group has.

Could Illinois, despite all of the current issues, still win? Well, yes.

First, never underestimate a wounded team. As Dean Smith used to say about injuries, any team can get fired up and overcome an injury for a game or two. Someone from the Illini - say Riley - could go off, a la Isaiah Evans, which would lessen the illness issues.

Second, Illinois is probably going to conserve energy, which would suggest they back off the full court pressure and focus on Underwood’s version of the Pack-Line. That sort of turns into running in wet concrete, thus potentially turning this game into a slow version of mud wrestling. And in that environment, all bets are off.

And third, Underwood is an outstanding coach. He may only have one or two paths, but he’s smart enough to find them. Don’t for a minute underestimate his team.

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