Wayback Wednesday: What If…Karl Malone Broke the Scoring Record?

This is Wayback Wednesday, your midweek blast from the past! From retrospectives of basketball games and their interesting features, to republished articles and looking at NBA history through the lens of the virtual hardwood, Wednesdays at the NLSC are for going back in time. This week, I’m pondering a historical What If; namely, what if Karl Malone broke the all-time scoring record?

Welcome to what I hope will be a recurring Wayback Wednesday feature, in which I explore some intriguing NBA What Ifs, illustrated by basketball video games! For a hardcore basketball and history buff, diving into the league’s biggest What Ifs can be just as interesting as reflecting on real events, results, and records. What small change would have a huge impact on NBA history? Which important events that defined the legacies of teams and players are dependent on a particular decision or twist of fate? For want of a nail, what possible butterfly effects can we imagine?

Considering that I remain a huge fan of Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls, you might think that I’d be inclined to explore a hypothetical involving them. After all, for all of their success during the 90s, there are a couple of What Ifs there! I will get to them at some point as I do have my own opinions to share, but they’re popular NBA What Ifs that have been discussed many times before. As such, for my first What If, I’m imagining a timeline where Karl Malone breaks the all-time scoring record. It’s a once-feasible event that’s hardly discussed now, so let’s take a look back…way back…

Before I get into the nuts and bolts of this What If, let’s talk about Karl Malone. I have to be honest: he’s not one of my all-time favourite players, and that’s before we even get into the off-court controversies! The Mailman is an all-time great player though – even if he doesn’t deliver on Sundays – and while I’m inclined to rank Tim Duncan as the best power forward in history, Malone is always going to be in the conversation. An excellent post player who could also drive and hit the mid-range jumper, he took a backseat on offense to Adrian Dantley in his rookie year. However, his second season began a string of seventeen straight seasons averaging at least twenty points per game.

This consistency combined with his durability made Karl Malone the leading scorer of the 90s with 21,370 points. Of course, the player with the highest scoring average in the 90s was Michael Jordan with 30.8 ppg, for a total of 18,014 points in 200 fewer games. That brings us to a pertinent What If regarding both Michael Jordan and Karl Malone. Had MJ not retired in 1993 and produced a similar scoring output to his third championship campaign, he’d have tallied around 23,000 points in the decade, even if he still retired in 1998. MJ could’ve also scored around 34,000 points in total, giving him a pretty good shot at the all-time record if he’d still made his Wizards comeback!

I’ll definitely revisit that in Jordan’s What If, but as far as Karl Malone is concerned, it illustrates a point about his records, as well as others who are ahead of His Airness on the all-time scoring chart. In short, timing and longevity are major factors. Obviously, longevity and consistency are still impressive feats, but many players whose totals could’ve been higher retired sooner due to injury, or simply not desiring to play longer and chase records. As far as leading the decade in scoring, entering the NBA as a new decade is dawning is also an advantage. Wilt Chamberlain’s numbers are insane, but going pro in 1959 also helped him score 27,068 of his 31,419 points during the 60s.

Nevertheless, it is an accomplishment, and Malone having the skill, consistency, and longevity to lead the 90s in total points is a feather in his cap. Moreover, the fact that he missed just nine games in that seventeen year span in which he averaged at least 20 ppg every year is absolutely impressive. As the stars of the 90s were racking up points and climbing the all-time leaders, The Mailman probably wasn’t most people’s first pick to potentially challenge Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s mark that had been set when his career concluded in 1989. However, with other players breaking down or deciding to call it a day, and Malone still chasing a ring in the early 2000s, the opportunity arose.

After eighteen seasons with the Utah Jazz, The Mailman had scored 36,374 points. This had already allowed him to surpass MJ – the player he beat for the MVP in 1997 and lost to twice in the Finals – and Wilt Chamberlain, to claim second place behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s point total of 38,387. Malone had just played in 81 games in the 2003 season, averaging 20.8 ppg in 36.2 mpg. Since he wasn’t about to hang it up, there was a very real possibility that the record would fall. Of course, doing so during the 2004 season would require scoring at least 2,014 points, an average of around 24.6 ppg if he played every game. If he played two more years though, it was quite doable.

Had Karl Malone played a 19th and then 20th season with the Jazz without missing significant time, there’s an excellent chance he would’ve broken Kareem’s record long before LeBron James did. However, the 2003 offseason basically ensured that Karl Malone being the all-time leading scorer would remain a What If. He’d clashed with Jazz brass for years and even demanded a trade during the 1998 lockout, so when he was courted by the Lakers – just a year removed from a threepeat – he left Utah for Los Angeles. It provided him (and Gary Payton) another shot at a ring, but also meant that he’d be behind both Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant in the pecking order.

Unsurprisingly, Malone’s scoring average dropped to 13.2 ppg playing third fiddle to the younger All-Star duo of Shaq and Kobe. Mind you, he was averaging 14 ppg prior to sustaining a knee injury four minutes into a game on December 21st, which put him out of action for 39 games. He was putting up 14.4 ppg in games where he played 30-39 minutes, and had three 20-point games in his first 24 outings. Had he not suffered that injury, Malone could’ve finished the year with a career total of around 37,500 points. Furthermore, Shaq missed twelve games in January while Malone was already out. Had he been healthy and available, he might’ve padded his totals as the #2 option.

Despite undergoing knee surgery in the offseason after suffering another injury in the Lakers’ NBA Finals loss to the Detroit Pistons, Karl Malone did indicate a desire to return for a twentieth NBA season. There was mutual interest in him joining the San Antonio Spurs, which could’ve finally netted The Mailman that elusive championship in 2005. If Malone had signed with San Antonio in early February, the thirty or so games left on their schedule wouldn’t allow him to catch Kareem. Indeed, even if he’d joined them in the offseason and played every game, he’d have to average 25.5 ppg to top Kareem by just one point. Again, once he went to LA, it wasn’t going to happen.

Since this is a What If though, let’s back up a bit and see how it could’ve occurred. As I noted, entering his 19th season, Karl Malone needed another 2,014 points to break the all-time scoring record. An average of 24.6 ppg over 82 games would’ve netted him the mark in the season finale, but again, that was probably unlikely at that point. Another season with the Jazz scoring around 21 ppg could’ve allowed him to enter his 20th season just 292 points shy of the record. An average of 14.6 ppg would reach that mark twenty games into the 2005 campaign, while 20+ ppg would obviously get him there quicker. Alternatively, two full seasons at around 12.3 ppg would also do it.

In other words, had Karl Malone played two more full seasons in Utah, a couple of full seasons in Los Angeles after joining the Lakers, or the full 2004 season in LA and then one more full season in San Antonio, there’s an excellent chance that he would’ve broken the all-time scoring record and held it until LeBron topped the mark almost two decades later. Again, I’m not a fan of Karl Malone, so I’ll admit that at the time, I was glad that he didn’t achieve that milestone! Looking back however, there’s a very interesting What If regarding Karl Malone being the all-time leading scorer. If he had, what would it mean for his legacy, and how would it impact the historical discourse?

As far as Malone is concerned, it would give him a distinction that only a handful of players have been able to claim at one point in their careers. The lack of rings and the choking in the NBA Finals would still be part of his story, but had he topped Kareem and then held the record for the next eighteen years, then that would’ve made him an even more significant figure in NBA history. With that being said, I believe the more interesting change is what it’d mean for the scoring record itself. Obviously, LeBron would still come along and break it, and it would remain a huge accomplishment. At the same time, I think it’d be viewed very differently if he’d topped Malone instead.

For a start, the record would only be about half as old when LeBron broke it in 2023. That doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be special, but Kareem holding the record for 39 years – and thus two (or arguably three) generations of players – made the occasion even more monumental. More to the point, unlike Kareem and LeBron, The Mailman was never considered the best player in the league, nor a candidate in the Greatest of All-Time debate (manufactured and sullied though it may be). Had the record fallen to a player who’s undoubtedly an all-time great, but not considered among the all-time top ten or a GOAT candidate, how would it – and the feat of breaking it again – be perceived?

To put it another way, what sounds better: LeBron James beating Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s all-time scoring record, or LeBron James topping Karl Malone for the most career points? Don’t get me wrong; it’s a huge feat either way that’d be celebrated for the skill, consistency, and longevity it requires. No player who ranks high on the all-time leading scorers gets there without those qualities! However, if the record had been broken almost twenty years prior by a player who isn’t a candidate in the GOAT debate, that significantly changes the narrative. It’s no longer about besting one of the Top 10 players in history, but a Top 50 player who outlasted his contemporaries.

I realise that sounds glib, but it’s an intriguing What If because I do believe that the perception of the all-time scoring record would be quite different if Karl Malone had managed to achieve it. For that matter, had Kobe Bryant not been plagued by injury during his final years and managed to break the record – as Robert Horry had once predicted he would – how does that affect his legacy and all-time standing? And, if that had been the case and LeBron breaks the record again within seven years or so, how does that affect the narrative around the achievement, and both of their legacies? That’s not even getting into the matter of longevity versus peaks and prime seasons.

It’s impossible not to sound like I’m disrespecting Karl Malone and LeBron James here. While neither of them are among my favourite players, that isn’t my intention. They are both all-time greats, and LeBron breaking a record that stood for 39 years is no small feat. Still, the debate would be different if “LeBron is the all-time leading scorer” could be countered with “So was Karl Malone, and you don’t even rank him in the Top 20!” The longevity of LeBron, Malone, and Kareem is impressive. However, I’ll always argue that MJ and Wilt outscoring the competition in a majority of their seasons, and reaching 30,000 points in fewer games, makes them superior scorers.

At the end of the day of course, a What If is just that. This isn’t how it all went down. Nevertheless, it’s interesting to ponder, because it demonstrates how a feasible event could’ve changed history, and the story that it weaves. The fact that until LeBron, it was Karl Malone that came the closest to dethroning Kareem – not MJ, not Kobe, not Dr. J, not Shaq, not Hakeem, not even Moses Malone – leaves the all-time scoring record with a fascinating What If; one that could potentially change its perception and significance. As it stands, I think there are some people who are grateful that LeBron can say he’s the captain now, rather than claiming more deliveries than The Mailman.

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