Cracketology: Big East Check-In

Photo by Michael Conroy | AP Photo

As the calendar creeps toward February, the Big East season is coming into the home stretch. The league's dismal November damaged any hopes of getting 6+ bids, but the league looks in solid position to exceed the 3 bids it earned last year and has a shot at getting 5 if things break right. Today we'll look at the resumes of teams in the Big East and what they need to do to get into the NCAA field.

Marquette: The Golden Eagles are flying high thanks to a solid non-conference performance that was highlighted by three wins over Big 10 teams (Maryland, Purdue, Wisconsin) currently in the field. At 18-3, Shaka Smart has the best record of his career through 21 games and Marquette is a solid 2-seed. They are as close to lock status as can be. Marquette still has an outside chance to reach the 1-line and is almost certainly going to be in the field.

Record needed: 2-8 or better

Remaining schedule: UConn, at St. John's, at Creighton, DePaul, Seton Hall, at Villanova, Providence, at Georgetown, at UConn, St. John's

St. John's: While St. John's boasts the same record as Marquette, they went just 1-2 against NCAA Tournament caliber competition in non-conference. They have just one Quadrant 1 win (at Xavier) and a losing record in Q1+2 (4-5). The lack of quality wins means their ceiling is probably a 5-seed unless they manage to pull off a Big East double-championship, but they are highly likely to be in the field.

Record needed: 4-6 or better

Remaining schedule: Providence, Marquette, at UConn, at Villanova, Creighton, at DePaul, UConn, at Butler, Seton Hall, at Marquette

Photo by C. Morgan Engel | Getty Images

Connecticut: The Huskies have been considered a lock all year long, with most people still feeling bullish about the two-time defending champs even after an 0-3 Maui. They have slid down to a 9-seed behind Creighton and still have the meat of their schedule to come. If they look better with Liam McNeeley back and don't lose games they are supposed to win, they should be in the field but after facing DePaul tonight, they are underdogs per kenpom at Marquette, hosting St. John's, and at Creighton. Their back loaded schedule gives them the opportunity to move up as high as a 4 or 5 seed, but they are trending closer to the bubble and still have work to do as they could easily miss the field if they lose games they aren't supposed to lose.

Record needed: 6-5 or better

Remaining schedule: DePaul, at Marquette, St. John's, at Creighton, at Seton Hall, Villanova, at St. John's, Georgetown, at Providence, Marquette, Seton Hall

Creighton: The Blue Jays are inching their way up the S-Curve, with wins over Kansas, St. John's, and at UConn checking the big win box. The ceiling here is a protected seed, possibly as high as a 3 if they really get hot. I think it's more likely they end up in the 5-7 range and barring collapse are likely to be in the field. 

Record needed: 5-6 or better

Remaining schedule: Xavier, at Villanova, at Providence, Marquette, UConn, at St. John's, Georgetown, DePaul, at Xavier, at Seton Hall, Butler

Photo from Xavier Athletics

Xavier: After Xavier beat Villanova at home, I told my bracketology group chat "If they can win two of their next four, Xavier is in really good position to earn a bid." Most people aside from the Xavier fan laughed that off, but adding wins at Marquette and over UConn have put the Musketeers in much better position. At just 1-6 in Q1, the Musketeers really need at least one more top-line win (at Creighton, at Villanova are the last two chances) but their schedule is very favorable, as they are favored in 8 of their 10 remaining games per kenpom. Get one of those Q1 road games, hope for UConn to get back into the NET top-30, and win the games you're supposed to and I think Xavier could slip in, possibly getting as high as a 9 or 10 seed.

Record needed: 8-2 (with a Q1 win)

Remaining schedule: at Creighton, Georgetown, at Villanova, at Providence, DePaul, Butler, at Seton Hall, Creighton, at Butler, Providence

Villanova: The Wildcats are all but done, and it wasn't Big East play but rather losses to Columbia, St. Joe's, and Virginia in November that put them in jeopardy. With a 0-5 Q1 record and multiple bad losses, I don't see 'Nova punching a ticket, but they do have opportunities with Creighton, St. John's, and Marquette all coming to Philly and a road trip to UConn. They need to not take any more bad losses and stack those quality wins to get to Dayton. It's unlikely, but not quite impossible.

Record needed: 8-2

Remaining schedule: Creighton, at DePaul, Xavier, St. John's, at Providence, at UConn, Marquette, at Seton Hall, Butler, at Georgetown

The rest of the Big East needs 4 wins to get to the NCAA Tournament, but they would all have to come at Madison Square Garden in March.

Interesting note about this week's bracket is Marquette's path, and I swear it just happened like this. The opener is against Milwaukee in Cleveland. They play because UWM couldn't go to Fiserv against a protected seed, making this the closest available site when their slot came up. In the second round, it would be Clemson or Texas, both schools Shaka Smart previously coached at. In the Sweet 16, the most likely opponents would be Michigan State, who eliminated Marquette in 2023, or Ole Miss, coached by Chris Beard, who followed Smart at Texas. It's funny how the bracket breaks sometimes.

Let's take a look at our current S-Curve and bracket:

Multibid conferences

SEC: 13

Big 10: 9

Big 12: 8

Big East: 4

ACC: 4

Mountain West: 3

WCC: 2

MVC: 2