Ranking NFL Playoffs Divisional Round
The best teams left in the playoffs and how we piece them together.
Six playoff games are in books.
Seven games, and eight teams, remain standing on the road to Super Bowl LIX.
How did the Wild Card round influence our thinking when it comes to which of the eight teams left standing have the best odds of winning the Lombardi Trophy? As we did last week, our staff writers here at. SB Nation each ranked the teams left standing, and based on the voting results, we have our latest set of rankings.
Here are the eight teams left in the chase for Super Bowl LIX, ranked by their odds of winning it all.
8. Houston Texans
Throughout the annals of football history, one thing has been true: if you have a pass rush, it’ll take you far. Just ask the 2007 and 2011 Giants! The Houston Texans have their flaws, especially offensively, but the one sure thing they have is a defense that can absolutely harass opponents. In their resounding 31-12 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston pressured Chargers QB Justin Herbert on more than half of his dropbacks, and got Herbert to throw four interceptions, one of them returned for a touchdown. I still have my questions about the offense, but if they can get the play they got out of WR Nico Collins and RB Joe Mixon, it’ll make their lives much easier: and their opponents much more difficult.
7. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders are off to the Divisional Round, thanks to an efficient performance from the rookie QB and a doink for the ages from kicker Zane Gonzalez. In his first playoff game Daniels connected on 24-of-35 passes for 268 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and showed remarkable growth when compared to his Week 1 outing against the same Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While Daniels relied more on his legs in the face of pressure, on Sunday night he punished the Buccaneers when they brought five or more rushers, completing 9-of-14 passes for 140 yards in those situations.
Things will get much tougher for Washington now as they head to Detroit to take on a rested Lions squad, The Commanders might have the proverbial “puncher’s chance,” but this is also a team that is 9-4 in one-score games this season, and has found ways to win throughout the year. Will that be enough Saturday night?
6. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are a dark horse in these playoffs to make some noise. Flying under the radar for much of the season, this well-rounded unit found its groove after Puka Nacua returned from injury and Cooper Kupp was at full strength as well.
Los Angeles has the deepest receiver corps in the playoffs by a wide margin, and their offense is potent, with Kyren Williams breaking out at running back. This is a very different Rams team than the organization that won the Super Bowl. Obviously there’s no Aaron Donald to anchor the defense, and that’s hurt them a little — but the team has shown it’s good enough to slow some of the league’s best teams and let their offense take over.
Very quickly, the Rams have moved from being a team that seemed lucky to be in these playoffs to a team to fear. If they can surprise and prove themselves with another win then the sky is the limit.
5. Philadelphia Eagles
The NFL+ “Know it All” reminded us this weekend that defense still wins championships in the NFL.
As an aside, when this season is over we need to have a long discussion about that ad campaign, but we digress ...
But that fact could bode very well for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Vic Fangio’s defense led the way for the Eagles in their 22-10 win over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday afternoon, intercepting Jordan Love three times and pressuring him throughout the contest. The Packers QB finished the game with an NFL Passer Rating of just 41.5, the second-lowest of his career and the second-lowest ever from a Packers QB in the playoffs.
While they lost Nakobe Dean to a brutal knee injury in the win, which will test their depth at linebacker, this Philadelphia defense looks extremely formidable. While the offense sputtered somewhat in Jalen Hurts’ first game back from a concussion, the Eagles rushing attack is also a problem for opponents. Add in one of the best offensive lines in football, and you have a tough out in the playoffs.
4. Detroit Lions
It might seem ridiculous to have the Lions ranked this low considering how stellar they’ve been in 2024, but putting them at No. 4 is a product of two factors: They’re still fighting through a lot of injuries, and the AFC just looks so good this season that it’s tough to put any NFC team ahead of them at this point.
We also now know that stopping Sam Darnold and the Vikings in Week 18 wasn’t that impressive after being dispatched with ease by the Rams in the Wild Card Playoffs.
Make no mistake: The Lions are still our pick to make it to the Super Bowl from the NFC, and honestly, it looks like a pretty easy road at this point — but with as many injuries as they’ve sustained it’s tough to imagine how they’ll match up with the big three of the AFC.
3. Buffalo Bills
At halftime of Sunday’s Wild Card game between the Buffalo Bills and the Denver Broncos, the visiting team trailed by just 10-7. The Broncos landed a big shot on their first possession of the game — a long strike from rookie Bo Nix to former Oregon teammate Troy Franklin — and Tony Romo was in the booth cautioning Bills fans that they should be worried.
The game ended with a final score of 31-7.
That halftime score failed to capture what was playing out on the field: Behind a formidable rushing attack Buffalo held the football for nearly 20 minutes in the first half, and racked up 128 yards on the ground. Believers in the “body blow” theory of running the football rejoiced in the second half as the Bills exploded for 21 unanswered points en route to their rout.
Up next? A highly-anticipated rematch of a Week 4 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Bills fans might have reason to worry for real this time, as the Ravens’ rushing attack also looks formidable, but as we saw in the second half Sunday, when Josh Allen gets his chances, he can take over a game in the blink of an eye.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
We’ve gotten to the point in the season where the Kansas City Chiefs sit up in the gaming chair. With the first overall seed in tow and homefield advantage throughout the conference, they’re perfectly set up to do what everyone thinks they’re going to do: win the whole thing, again. The thing that probably holds them this high this season is that they’re finally getting healthy. RB Isaiah Pacheco is back, as well as WR Marquise Brown, making their offense much more dynamic. With Brown back in the lineup against the Steelers and Texans, the Chiefs’ EPA per play was 0.214, much higher than their 0.068 EPA per play that they had throughout the season. Brown gives them much more quickness to open up short areas of the field, and another target for QB Patrick Mahomes, who takes his play up to another level in the playoffs. Add on a defense led by one of the best playoff performers in modern NFL history in DT Chris Jones, you have a formula for a three-peat.
1. Baltimore Ravens
Saturday night’s game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers offered the latest example yet of the old football adage: “It’s not the Xs and Os, it’s the Jimmies and Joes.”
The Steelers entered Saturday night’s game against the Ravens with a clear plan to slow down Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and the vaunted Baltimore rushing attack. They would “scrape exchange” Baltimore’s read option designs, with a defensive end crashing down on Henry to force Jackson to pull the ball and keep it himself, and a second-level defender would loop around the edge to try and contain the elusive QB.
That scheme works great on a whiteboard, but loses some of its shine on the field against two of the best at their position.
Now the Ravens get a rematch with the Buffalo Bills of a game in Week 4, won in dominant fashion by Baltimore. If the team we saw Saturday night shows up this weekend, the Ravens might be headed to their second-straight AFC Championship Game.