Next Up - Notre Dame

It’s been a tough season for the Irish so far, but doubt them at your peril.

You may have noticed this season that we expect two ACC teams to rise: Louisville and Notre Dame.

The Cardinals have started to fly again under Pat Kelsey, winning five of their last six with the only loss being to hated rival Kentucky, and that by just eight points.

So the Cards are doing well and may emerge as a tournament team. And Notre Dame?

The Irish are underwater at 7-8, but we don’t think that reflects where this team is.

First, Notre Dame lost their most critical player, Markus Burton for seven games from the loss to Rutgers (another one point loss by the way) on November 26th, until UNC on January 4th.

They had a respectable loss to Houston (65-54) and another to Creighton (80-76). A 69-48 loss at Georgia wasn’t great news but they bounced back and beat Syracuse, Dartmouth and LeMoyne before losing at Georgia Tech.

So that’s 5-3 without Burton and 0-2 since he got back - but of course they were both one point losses.

So to an extent, it’s forgivable - not by coach Micah Shrewsberry or the committee certainly, but by the rest of us?

Sure. It’s understandable.

Thing is, despite some struggles, since Burton went out the Irish have clearly grown. Obviously they gave UNC a great game and were on the verge of beating State until the Pack pulled off a late comeback.

So if you’re thinking well, Notre Dame is just 7-8 and easy money, forget that. This is a dangerous team.

And the thing is that while he’s playing, Burton isn’t entirely back. He did score 23 against the Tar Heels on 7-14/0-3 shooting, but he had four turnovers. And against NC State, he shot just 5-15 and had three turnovers.

He also had a chance to win that game but couldn’t hit the last basket.

So yes he’s playing and contributing but his timing and his conditioning aren't 100 percent.

Even so, he changes things.

In Burton’s absence, Shrewsberry - the coach, not his kid - relied on a rotation of the younger Shrewsberry, Matt Alloco and Logan Imes.

Shrewsberry can be a bit streaky, but if he heats up from three point range, look out. He could be a huge factor.

Allocco is a 6-4 senior who transferred in from Princeton, and he’s better than we expected, honestly. He’s not a blinding talent - he’s the third best in the rotation - but he’s solid, he doesn’t make a lot of stupid mistakes and he can score. He’s currently getting 10.1 ppg, 4.5 rebounds and 3.3 assists. The guy can play.

Imes is kind of a mystery but we love what we’ve seen out of him at times. He’s a fun player, a tough, smart Indiana kid. He’s the kind of guy Bob Knight might have pursued back in the day. He’s not going to hurt you now and he’ll get better.

So Notre Dame has excellent guard play. The other nice piece for them is Tae Davis.

He’s still slight at 6-9/208, but Davis is a really good athlete who’s becoming a better basketball player. Davis is averaging 16.5 ppg, 5.6 rpg and 2.0 apg.

He’s improved a lot. As a Seton Hall freshman, he got 2.8 ppg. Last year? That improved to 9.2. He’s gone from a decent sub to a reliable sophomore to an indispensable junior.

At 6-10 and 254, Kebba Njie brings the power that Davis doesn’t have. He doesn't put up huge numbers - right now he’s getting 6.7 ppg, 6.1 rebounds and shooting just 56.3 percent.

He could be more productive but he’s certainly adequate. We could see him beating on the still slim Khaman Maluach, for one. He’s got a bit of a mean streak, too, and we mean that as a compliment.

Which brings us to why Notre Dame is dangerous: defense.

Last season at Notre Dame, Duke just couldn’t pull away from the Irish, and that was when Shrewsberry was still getting his system in place and getting his players to buy in. Remember his early season meltdown after Notre Dame lost to the Citadel? At home?

That was great. It set the tone for the rest of the season. Notre Dame didn't win a lot, but they did compete.

Duke shot 35.6/30.8 percent in the visit to South Bend. In the rematch, the Irish held the Devils to 43.3/22.2 percent.

What the first game reminded us of, somewhat uncomfortably, was the 2010 NCAA championship game against Butler. Remember?

Duke had superior talent but just couldn’t pull away. Butler was just too sticky.

Shrewsberry was a Brad Stevens assistant and our guess is that he learned a lot about defense from that master of D.

However, the script is somewhat turned this year because Duke is clearly the best defensive team in the ACC and probably the best offensive team too.

Shrewsberry has to find a way to shut down Cooper Flagg, Tyrese Proctor, Kon Knueppel, Khaman Maluach and the rest.

And bringing Caleb Foster, Isaiah Evans and Mason Gillis off the bench will push the defense even more.

This seems like a good time to correct an oversight: we didn’t realize how well Mason Gillis played against Pitt until we watched the video later. He just made great decisions the entire game. You can see how he could have a much bigger impact.

A big part of why Duke’s defense has been so effective is because of a huge - pun intended - size advantage. It could be a real problem for the Irish: Burton is a wonderful player but he’s just 5-11. Shrewsberry is 6-3, Allocco 6-4, Davis a slim 6-9 and Nije gives up four inches to Maluach, who is also exceptionally long. He can nearly touch the rim on his tip-toes.

Even so, the reason we see Notre Dame eventually emerging as a major ACC power is because Shrewsberry is such a good defensive coach. We don’t know what he’ll try to counter Duke’s size, but if the Blue Devils aren’t hitting threes and Notre Dame packs the middle, it could give them a shot.

And of course if Shrewsberry gets on one of his patented heaters, all bets are off. He doesn’t always have discretion yet but he does have daring and while it’s better with discretion, that’s still a really good thing to have.

Duke is obviously going to be favored, but don’t be surprised if Notre Dame makes a game out of it. And most of all don’t be surprised if Burton is better than what we saw against UNC and NC State. He’s had his moments but he’s still trying to get back to 100 percent. Don’t be shocked if he has a major offensive outburst against Duke. In fact, we fully expect him to - and Shrewsberry as well.

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