Bills vs. Broncos in NFL Playoffs will test Joe Brady in new ways

There’s a hole in Denver’s defense if the Bills can find it.

Matchup to watch: Buffalo’s offense vs. Denver’s man coverage

In my opinion, this is the most interesting game of the weekend. Buffalo and Denver share a lot of strengths, but the collision course between arguably the best defense in the NFL and one of the most complementary offenses in the NFL might be the best matchup of the weekend. The Broncos play a LOT of man coverage: in fact, per SIS they’re third in the NFL in total snaps of man coverage played.

After Broncos’ DC Vance Joseph inserted CB Riley Moss into the lineup, their secondary has taken off, feeling comfortable playing man coverage and getting creative with pressures. I would advise the Bills not to throw at CB Patrick Surtain II, because the best corner in the NFL will make you pay more often than not. Combine that with a pass rush unit that has so many varying ways of how they win, and you got a stew cooking. Not only does this help in the passing game, but thriving in so much man coverage, Cover 1 specifically, allows you to be gapped out in the run game and play much quicker downhill, which is already a problem for opposing offenses because DTs Zach Allen and DJ Jones have been Bebop and Rocksteady in the middle of that defense. Even despite playing a little lighter on the edge, the Broncos are fourth in the NFL against the run, because of badass plays like this:

The problem, however, lies in the fact that the Bills and Josh Allen have shredded man coverage this year. Per Sumer Sports, Allen is seventh in the NFL in Success Rate vs. man coverage, and the Bills as a whole have found so many answers against coverage that would make sense to play against a team without many consistent separators on the field. What really sets it off, however, is that Josh Allen scrambles so much more against man coverage. Not only is his 9.6% scramble rate third in the NFL among passers with 100 attempts against man, it’s a massive jump from his 6.5% scramble rate against zone coverage. While you would think that scrambling against the Broncos would be smart when they’re in man coverage, in total they only allow a 47.1% Success Rate against QB scrambles. So, how do you beat this team then?

Bills’ OC Joe Brady has done a lot of work with getting his running backs involved in the passing game, but it especially shows up against man coverage. SIS has charted Allen with 18 attempts to running backs against man coverage. On those attempts, he’s 15/18, has thrown four TDs and has a 77.8% Positive Play Rate. It comes on plays like these to RB Ty Johnson against Detroit, where Brady uses the motion to indicate man or zone, then leaks Johnson out the backfield on a rail route against a slower LB. Look at how the run fake holds the linebacker for just long enough so Johnson can leak out and get a step on him.

Denver’s defense is incredible, but if there’s one crack in the armor it’s that they’re 31st in DVOA on passes to running backs. When you play a lot of man coverage, the linebackers are left out to dry against good receiving backs, so this could end up being a big Ty Johnson game. Denver linebackers Justin Strnad and Cody Barton will have to play their best games in man coverage on Sunday, because you better believe that the Bills are bringing all their answers.

Individual battles to watch: Bills’ WR Khalil Shakir and TE Dalton Kincaid vs. Broncos’ CB Ja’Quan McMillian, safety PJ Locke and safety Brandon Jones