Toronto’s pile of injuries might become a disaster

Almost 1500 years before Napoleon lost his empire by invading Russia and having to retreat from his enemy’s capital without enough supplies, Julian the Apostate suffered a similar defeat. The Roman Emperor tried to purge Rome of Christianity, and finding the ensuing complications of domestic politics not to his liking, decided to simplify things by having a little war with the Sassanid Empire. He invaded in 363 CE, and without much trouble reached the capital. But finding the walls too high, he had to retreat. Without enough supply, in the desert, and harassed by enemy skirmishers who employed a scorched earth defence, Julian died during a Sassanid assault. 

The point: Be careful what you wish for. 

The Toronto Raptors probably entered this season wishing to be competitive and fun, but ultimately, to lose as many games as possible. Masai Ujiri said as much on media day, calling this a rebuilding season. The team employs talent, but more was required in order to compete with the big dogs. So, lose games. All well and good. From a purely Machiavellian perspective, and also from Toronto’s perspective, injuries help in that regard. They help the team lose (check) and they give the young guys a chance to develop (check check). 

But losing too much is starting to become something of a problem for the Raptors. Though the Raptors have thus far been defined by effort, too many injuries, and it becomes much harder for players to continually get up to 100 for every game. Julian wanted war, but he got too much of it. The Raptors wanted losing, but now they’re losing more than games. Now they’re starting to lose the season itself as an opportunity to answer foundational questions about the future of his franchise. 

Development was what mattered this year. And that was (and is) going swimmingly, with incredible steps into the league or forward into prominence from Ochai Agbaji, Gradey Dick, Ja’Kobe Walter, Jonathan Mogbo, Davion Mitchell, Jakob Poeltl, and more. Ultimately, the team has been joyous so far this year, with success and development up and down the roster. All well and good, indeed.

But this injury bug is starting to put a bar in the spokes of Toronto’s season. This is not to say Toronto’s current injury crises are anyone’s fault. Not in the least. But this is not how the team would have wanted to go out. Just improvement from the meat of the roster wasn’t enough. The top end had to improve, too. To his credit, RJ Barrett has done that. But he’s been the only one. And increasingly, the Raptors’ season is slipping away as an opportunity to see what the top end even looks like on the court all at the same time. 

If the future of Toronto’s franchise is the combination of Immanuel Quickley, Barrett, and Scottie Barnes, then Toronto has questions it needs answered. When given a strong supporting cast (and time for the core three to develop into their best selves), are the three of them good enough to consistently compete with good teams in the NBA? To beat them? Also, what does that development look like for each of them? And what is the best supporting cast, in terms of archetypal strengths and weaknesses, that Toronto can find? 

So far, the answers are unknown. Perhaps they will continue to be all year. 

Toronto has seen 439 minutes of Barnes, Quickley, and Barrett together, and the three combined for a net rating of plus-3. Which is solid for a team’s best three player, but for from an elite mark. Also: That all came last season. So far, the three haven’t yet appeared on the court together in 2024-25. And even including last season, the three have played 18 minutes total with Gradey Dick, and those four have played four minutes alongside Jakob Poeltl. 

Perhaps most important of all is how Barnes and Quickley fit together. They are going to be the two highest-paid players and the two foundations on which the future is built. And so far, the two have not had terrific, multiplicative chemistry. 

Which is weird! They should work well together! One of the league’s best movement shooters with one of the league’s best passers? It’s only natural. But each has seemed uncertain with his role in the relationship. The screencraft between the two has been middling, with Barnes not a strong enough screener when Quickley is handling, and Quickley not a frequent enough screener when Barnes is handling. (For my money, Quickley should probably screen for Barnes 5-10 times a game, but the Raptors haven’t force-fed the partnership to that extent.) The team offence has devolved to stasis too often with the two on the court together, with too much isolation and too much dribbling not enough screening or cutting. That plays to neither players’ strengths. 

So far this season, the duo has played 10 relatively poor minutes together. The ball has stuck. The offence has been miserable. Of course, that’s too few minutes to know anything real. But with Barnes out for perhaps several weeks with an ankle sprain and Quickley still not having ramped up to contact or having returned to practice due to his UCL tear, it’s impossible to know when we’ll get more minutes with the two on the court.  

The lack of on-court chemistry between Quickley and Barnes is not an issue that I expect to persist. Both have terrific noses for space and movement on the offensive side of the ball, and I imagine that reps is all that is needed to smooth over any issues. But those reps are needed. Because we haven’t seen it work perfectly yet. And what if their issues aren’t smoothed out? Then Toronto has bet big on a partnership that isn’t able to beat other star duos. The Raptors need to find out the ceiling of this twosome, and they can’t discover that ceiling until the two actually play together. 

Furthermore, what works best alongside the trio of BBQ? Is Poeltl the best type of big? Quickley thrives alongside monstrous screens, as they give him the space he needs as a cutter and the passing windows he needs running pick and rolls. He finishes everything either player throws to him. But Poeltl is a non-shooter, and Barnes’ drives don’t have tons of space with Poeltl as his screening partner. The team has often used staggered screens to get around that, but it would be simpler for Barnes to have a more natural one-on-one big screener. Would a shooter work better alongside Quickley and Barnes? They have played just 21 minutes alongside Kelly Olynyk, who would help simulate that pick-and-pop big. How about defensively, does Toronto want a drop big who can annihilate the paint, or a switch-everything athlete? 

Or what type of wing do the Raptors want to prioritize? It would make sense for a shooting and movement specialist like Dick to be the perfect complement, but does his defence sink a lineup that already features two negatives (or at best, neutrals) in Barrett and Quickley, as well as a center in Poeltl who doesn’t fix enough messes? Or would a low-usage defender fit better? Maybe a shot creator? Knowing the answer there would really help Toronto make its selection if it ended up with a top-three pick in a draft that features Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, and Ace Bailey.

It would be ideal to know the answers to these questions before the Raptors spend another trade deadline, or maybe even another free agency and draft, building around this core. If Toronto prioritizes a drop big who can shoot — maybe finding a way to add someone like Myles Turner? — but that isn’t what works best, that would be an issue. These questions need answering before another cycle of front-office decision making. 

Of course, there’s still time for that. Maybe Quickley is back in a few weeks and Barnes in a month. That would still leave a few weeks before the Feb. 6 trade deadline. Sure, they wouldn’t have a ton of time to ramp up, but it’s not likely that the team is going to prioritize this trade deadline outside of shedding a few role players to better teams. As long as the Raptors learn some core facts before the draft, that’s really the most important thing. If Barnes and Quickley don’t get hurt again, that would give Toronto time.

Besides, none of the injuries so far this season seem like they’d threaten anyone’s future. And the silver lining of getting the youngsters extra run is far from meaningless. Unlike Emperor Julian’s venture into the East, this could all end up a nothing burger. But for as many positive signs as there have been, the season could all end up not constituting the step forward that it should be. Part of a rebuild is answering questions about your team. And for the Raptors, several components of their identity remain open questions. The 2024-25 campaign won’t be perfect until they are answered, or, even better, addressed.

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