The Rap-Up: Kicking off the NBA Cup

The Raptors end their season-long road trip with the first game of the in-season tournament.

It’s the time of year we’ve all been waiting for, ladies and gentlemen! It’s the NBA Cup!!

**crickets**

Alright, the in-season tournament may not garner the type of excitement Adam Silver hoped it would (hands up if you knew the games kicked off this week before you clicked this post). Part of the reason behind the NBA Cup’s inception was to combat load management and incentivise teams to play their stars.

As luck would have it — or bad luck, depending on your team (real or fantasy) — multiple teams have been ravaged with significant injuries. This week alone, Ja Morant, Kevin Durant, Chet Holmgren, Zion Williamson, Tyrese Maxey, and Aaron Gordon went down with injuries and are expected to miss the opening of the NBA Cup (or the entire tournament in Holmgren’s case).

While they continue to be without Scottie Barnes and Ja’Kobe Walter, the Raptors have yet to see Kelly Olynyk and Bruce Brown on the court this season. Toronto’s opponents this week aren’t a bunch of spring chickens either. Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton has yet to make his season debut. Detroit’s Ausar Thompson was just cleared to return on Monday morning. Boston won’t see Kristaps Porzingis until December, at least.

The theme of the week is to tread lightly.

November 12 @ Milwaukee Bucks

When the schedule was released, the Raptors’ slate was widely viewed as one of the most difficult. With 22 of the first 25 games against teams that made the playoffs last season, Toronto did not have many games to look forward to before the NBA Cup playoffs in early December.

Ironically, the Raptors’ first game of the NBA Cup may not be as daunting as first perceived.

Even if you remove the four losses to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics, the Milwaukee Bucks are still 2-4 with losses to the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets. The two victories were over the Philadelphia 76ers without Joel Embiid and Paul George, and the Utah Jazz, the worst team in the West.

The Bucks are as top-heavy as it gets. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the league in scoring with 31.6 points per game and ranks third with 12.8 rebounds per game. Damian Lillard is in the top 15 in points, assists, and 3-point field goals. Outside of its all-star duo, the Bucks are scrambling to get contributions from anyone on the roster. Correction: with Lillard currently in concussion protocol and unable to play against Toronto, the Bucks will be looking for a lot of help where there has been little so far this season.

For the first time in his career, Brook Lopez is averaging single digits in scoring with 9.0 points per game. Taurean Prince (7.5 points) and Pat Connaughton (4.2 points) have been largely invisible.

When he was signed at the league minimum, Gary Trent Jr. was supposed to be one of the steals of the offseason. After 7 games as a starter, GTJ was benched in favour of Andre Jackson. Trent Jr. is averaging 7.3 points — only his rookie season was lower — on 29.5% shooting from the field and 23.1% from beyond the arc.

Doc Rivers was given a pass for last year’s poor finish since he was thrust into the job midway through the season. With a full summer under his belt, there are no more excuses for Doc!

Fun fact that may only interest me

Milwaukee’s bench is filled with players and coaches with links to the Toronto Raptors.

Former players include Gary Trent Jr., Damian Lillard, and Delon Wright.

Doc’s team of coaches includes Dwane Casey’s former top assistant, Rex Kalamian. Another Assistant with ties to the Raptors is Greg Buckner. You get all the brownie points if you remember Buckner was part of the 4-team trade that landed Hedo Turkoglu in Toronto and sent Shawn Marion to Dallas (where he’d win an NBA title)!

Prediction

The Raptors have won 6 of its last 8 visits to Milwaukee and 3 of its last 4 games against the Bucks. Last season, Lillard missed 8 regular season games. Milwaukee lost 7 of them.

Yet, I’m going with the Bucks to win (but Raps to cover the +7.5 spread).

Toronto’s offense thrives at the rim (3rd in rim frequency) while taking fewer threes than most teams (29th in three-point frequency). Milwaukee has struggled defending the three (29th in three-point frequency allowed) but has defended the rim very well (2nd in defensive rim frequency). The NBA Cup starts the same way the Raptors season started: filled with promise but ultimately deflating.

November 15 vs Detroit Pistons

The Pistons have as many wins this season (4) by November 15th as they had last season on January 15th.

Detroit has fielded a competitive squad that’s not too dissimilar from what Toronto trots out every game! Surrounding the top pick from the 2021 draft (Cade Cunningham) is a mix of veterans (Tim Hardaway Jr. and Tobias Harris) and young talent (Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, and Isaiah Stewart).

Duren, Harris, and Stewart are all in the top 20 in blocks per game. Hardaway Jr. is shooting over 47% from three, an outstanding jump from the 37% he averaged over 6 seasons with Dallas. Malik Beasley has provided a steadying hand to an otherwise inexperienced group of reserves. The journeyman, who’s on his 5th team in 4 seasons, is the only bench player averaging double-digits (12.1 points).

Fun fact that may only interest me

Four players are averaging at least 23 points, 8 assists, and 7 rebounds:

• Nikola Jokic
• LeBron James
• Luka Doncic
• Cade Cunningham

Scottie Barnes captured the Rookie of the Year award. Evan Mobley looks like he’ll win Defensive Player of the Year very soon. In only 3 years, many have forgotten how loud the hype train was for Cade. If the wins keep piling in (relatively speaking), Cunningham may see his first All-Star appearance soon!

Prediction

The Pistons will play the second game of a three-game road trip after following Toronto’s footsteps and visiting Milwaukee. Detroit will wrap up with a game in Washington. The Raptors will have a rest advantage and a home crowd advantage. (To be fair, they also have a home crowd advantage in Detroit)

This is another scenario where my heart says the Raptors will win but the opponent has a trick or two up the sleeve. Areas where Toronto should strive — at the rim, crashing the glass, and generating fastbreak opportunities off steals — are also areas the opponent performs well in. Detroit ranks 10th in defensive rim frequency, 2nd in offensive rebound percentage, and 6th in transition frequency off steams. Detroit covers the +5.5 spread.

November 16 @ Boston Celtics

The Celtics have shown no signs of championship fatigue. Boston’s offense is ranked 2nd in the halfcourt and 3rd in transition. After setting an NBA record with the highest offensive rating last season, the Celtics are scoring even more points per possession this year. How do you slow down an offense with no flaws?

Boston’s defense has improved from 111.6 rating last season to 109.2. Opponents are shooting at a better rate, specifically at the rim where the Celtics have dropped from 5th in defensive accuracy at the rim to 22nd. But you can live with that knowing that Kristaps Porzingis has yet to make his season debut.

The Celtics became champions last year because they have excellent 3-and-D players up and down the roster, can switch every screen, and knock down threes from anywhere (and anyone) on the court. This season, they’ve doubled down on the outside shooting by moving their shot chart further away from the basket.

Leading the charge is their MVP, Jayson Tatum. Deuce’s dad has altered his shot chart and is now taking 52% of his shots from three. Tatum is one of three Celtics, along with Payton Pritchard and Derrick White, in the top 7 in three-point field goals made. White is one of only 9 players averaging at least one steal and one block. Of those 9 players, he only trails reigning MVP, Nikola Jokic in net rating.

The Celtics are not playing around this year.

Fun fact that may only interest me

Only 4 players in the NBA average at least 15 points while shooting at least 47% from the field, 40% from three, and 90% from the line. (Yes, that’s a slightly arbitrary set of numbers but stay with me)

3 of those players are starters: Darius Garland, Stephen Curry, and Desmond Bane.

The only reserve — who’s also achieving this with far less usage and shot attempts — is Payton Pritchard.

Prediction

This one could get ugly really quickly. The Raptors will be playing the second game of a home-road back-to-back, while the Celtics will have two days of rest. Toronto is still nowhere near being fully healthy, so they’ll be playing on shorter rest.....with a smaller roster......on the road.....against the defending champions.

Boston covers whatever astronomical spread they’re given (let’s say it’s 15.5).

********

Last Week’s Record: 1-3

Season Record: 3-8