Xavier Preview, 2024-25

State of the Program

While the first year of Sean Miller's second run at Xavier was a dream return to relevance for Musketeer fans, finishing second in the Big East, making the Big East Tournament final, and reaching the Sweet 16, last year had to be just as much a nightmare. Expected front court starters Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter both suffered season ending injuries before the season started. That was compounded with a rough non-conference that included buy game losses to Oakland and Delaware. Their Big East performance was the definition of middle of the pack. They went 0-6 against the league's top tier (UConn, Creighton, Marquette), 4-0 against the bottom (Georgetown, DePaul), and split the series with everyone else, finishing 9-11 in the league. The ramshackle front court reserves that replaced Freemantle and Hunter are all gone, as are the top two scorers in Quincy Olivari and Desmond Claude. Incoming is a highly regarded transfer class that includes four mid-major double-digit scorers along with a pair of high-major role players.

Rotation

News: Sean Miller announces Xavier big man Lassina Traore is out for the season with a knee injury. Miller: “Lassina was a starter on this year’s team. He emerged to be our team’s best rebounder, low post defender and shot blocker.” A tough preseason blow for the Musketeers.

— John Fanta (@John_Fanta) October 14, 2024

Style of Play

Xavier got out in transition A LOT. 20.5% of their plays were in transition, which was in the 91st percentile, and even more incredible was they did this despite a sub-250 defensive turnover rate. This was a team that was looking to attack off a miss, a rebound, or a made basket. When they did get into their half court offense, they were a pick and roll heavy team, something that will likely be even more prominent with this group. There will likely be two main differences with this team. First, expect more success when the big men cut to the basket. Last year, they were in the 3rd percentile in scoring efficiency on those plays, down from the 67th percentile with Freemantle the year before. Second, despite the loss of Olivari, expect more kicking out to open shooters. Maddox and Conwell are both high volume shot makers and this trio will create a lot of looks.

The defensive end is where Miller has had more questions than answers so far, and none of the additions are guys who have ever excelled on defense. They rarely come out of man and the preference is not to switch on ball screens. Players are instructed to always play with hands up and to take big steps when challenging shots to maximize the impact of the challenge. The problem was execution. As good as Xavier was in pick and roll on offense, they were just as bad shutting it down on defense. This led to a high rim rate, a big part of why Xavier was 9th in the Big East in eFG%. In Miller's first two years, Xavier simply hasn't had a defensive calling card. They don't turn teams over, fail to disrupt passing lanes, don't control the glass, they are simply a mediocre, beatable team on defense. Xavier is going to put up points, but they will give opponents the chance to put them right back up in return.

2024-25 Outlook

This team reminds me a lot of the 2022-23 Xavier team that Sean Miller had in the Sweet 16. They have a wealth of capable back court scorers who fit Miller's offensive plan, a versatile finisher at the four, and enough quality at center to provide some offensive punch and paint protection. The problem was they could only play one way, which was fast, and were porous on defense so they had to keep scoring to win because they couldn't get stops. All three guards are mid-major up-transfers, and Xavier has the shortest 1-3 in the Big East. They are going to be challenged by bigger, stronger players on a nightly basis. Up front, Freemantle was always better known for his offense than defense while Hugley needs to prove he's healthy for the first time since 2022. Even with Traore, rim protection and front court defense was going to be a struggle, but once again Xavier has a lack of depth in the front court. There will be nights when Xavier gets the win simply because their shooters get hot and the opponent can't score enough to keep up, but unless the defense improves in ways this roster doesn't seem capable of on paper, they will remain a team that is competing for a NCAA bid rather than a Big East title.

One Man's Opinion

I love Xavier's offensive potential. They should be able to score with anyone and if the back court fits as well as Miller's previous mid-major adds (Souley Boum, Quincy Olivari) they will be able to keep up with anyone in the Big East or the country on their night. But I hate what their defense looks likely to be, which is why I have them #5 in the Big East, and that was before they lost starting center Traore for the season. It's a small back court with slow-footed bigs and not much depth up front. Whether you want to compare them to 2023 Xavier or 2024 St. John's, they just look like a team that will compete but will need to outscore teams to beat them, and on nights when the scoring falls off or the defense can't get stops, they'll come up short. I also have serious reservations about the long-term roster construction. They have four starters who will not be able to return and four more bench players in the same situation. Is Sean Miller planning to be back in 2025-26? This roster certainly doesn't look like it. With Louisville, Kentucky, Ohio State, and Michigan all filling this past offseason I'm not sure where he might be looking to go, but this is not the roster one builds if they are focused on anything more than the next 6 months.