3 Predictions for the 2024-25 NBA Season
How will new-look teams fare after a busy offseason?
Already half-way through September, we’re starting to feel very close the NBA season. Now, only a few weeks away from training camps, the final roster and training camp spots are being signed, players are ramping up their own workouts, and news and predictions are starting to swirl.
While a lot of the off-season news points to another exciting season, with a new class of rookies and movement in free agency that changed the look of a lot of teams around the league, it’s probably time to consider a few things that could (probably) happen this year.
Here are three predictions for the upcoming NBA season:
First: The Raptors will be (WAY) better than last year
In the midst of a re-build, there are plenty of questions about the Toronto Raptors’ upcoming season and how they will fare. As teams around the league got stronger during the offseason, competition will be steep. After finishing last season 25-57, battling injuries, and undergoing massive amounts of turnover on the roster, there’s uncertainty about how the team will perform.
In reality, the answer is probably a lot better than people think. The roster is young and developing, but the likely starting lineup of Barnes, Quickley, Barrett, Dick, and Poeltl can be competitive. Now, with an offseason to work together and another year of growth and development, their shooting, passing, and athleticism can be assets that won’t make them easy to put away. 35 or so wins is pretty reasonable to me, despite the fact that it’s quite a bit higher than they’re being projected by some sports betting.
The Raps are still finding their identity, and while they’ll probably be below .500, they’re going to be playing some fun basketball that should give us a window into the future of the team as well. Their offensive system started to look good in the small number of games they actually had the starting lineup together already. Kelly Olynyk will help distribute and space the floor, Davion Mitchell should be able to help defensively, and with the addition of the rookies, hopefully the bench will be able to contribute enough to keep them up, especially against the other teams in the bottom half of the league.
Of course, no games will be easy, especially with how tight the standings were down the stretch.
Second: Every game matters
Last season, some playoff matchups weren’t set until the final games of the season were being played. In the West, the gap from the fourth-ranked LA Clippers and the seventh-ranked New Orleans Pelicans who then lost in the play-in was only two games. OKC and the Denver Nuggets had identical records and were ranked by tiebreakers. Things were no better in the east, with a three-way tie between the Orlando Magic, Indiana Pacers, and Philadelphia 76ers with head-to-heads determining their position, and a four-game gap from the two-seed New York Knicks and eight-seed Miami Heat.
A seemingly meaningless midseason game or two had a big effect on the final rankings. Resting a player or an injury in January and “giving away” a game or two meant that there was no home-court advantage in the playoffs. Most teams probably had at least one matchup that they would’ve liked to get back.
Things are going to be more competitive this season, with a lot of teams making improvements and addressing issues that will make them better. Players returning from injury will also have an effect around the league. The Memphis Grizzlies sat second in the 2022-2023 season with 51 wins, but the injury bug dropped them to 13th last season with only 27 wins. Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke played in only single-digit games, and Jaren Jackson Jr. was the only one who played more than 65 games with the team. Most of the roster should be back for the season, with the exception of GG Jackson, but they will look a lot more competitive with the addition of Zach Edey as well.
In fact, a lot of teams got better this season, which brings me to my final point:
Three: There will be a new NBA Championship team
The Boston Celtics were pretty dominant last season, 14 games ahead of the Knicks and 7 games ahead of the Nuggets and Thunder. They got arguably better too, with everyone returning to run it back, and adding Lonny Walker IV who averaged almost 10 points a game last year and can be another solid bench option. While it’s theirs to lose, the reality is that the competition made waves in the offseason too.
Oklahoma City traded one of their biggest weaknesses and exchanged it for top-caliber defensive player Alex Caruso. They also signed Hartenstein to address their center depth, who played exceptionally well for the Knicks last season. The Thunder were already the best in the West, and with the continued growth of their young core in Shai, Chet, Lu, and Jalen, and a deep bench, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them walk away with the chip.
Philadelphia also made some important changes, adding star power in Paul George and bench depth in Reggie Jackson, Caleb Martin, and Eric Gordon.
Milwaukee added Taurean Prince, Delon Wright, and Gary Trent Jr. who can all be excellent contributors alongside an already strong Bucks team.
Sacramento added DeMar DeRozan and re-signed Malik Monk. Dallas now has Klay Thompson and Spencer Dinwiddie who can contribute. Indiana, New York, Denver, the Cleveland Cavaliers, and Phoenix Suns aren’t going anywhere either.
The last 5 championships have been one-offs, so it wouldn’t be surprising if we see a new team crowned in June.
With only two weeks until training camps open October 1 and the first preseason action October 4, we won’t have long to wait until it all starts and we can get our first look at the new structure of these teams.
The Raptors’ first preseason game will be October 6, in Montreal, which can’t come soon enough. Then, only two weeks of preseason action until the season officially tips of October 22. So if you haven’t already, mark your calendar, because it’s going to be a good one.