Five theoretical trades that would reveal Toronto’s future

If you’re new to my work, I don’t really write so much about trade theorycrafting. I prefer to cover things that actually happen, which is why I love to cover trades after they take place, not before. 

That being said, we’re in the dog days of summer here. So let’s try to look at trades in an intelligent way. Not just throwing names into the trade machine to show why Masai Ujiri and company are missing out on gold mines. No, that’s silly. The point here is to use theoretical trades to show the possible paths available to Toronto. Or not available! But the trades in this context are lessons, symbols, rather than actual meat-and-potato events that we can argue about. Read accordingly.

Path 1: The Full Tear Down

The Raptors don’t have enough talent on the roster at the moment to compete for a championship. Everything (within the realm of reason) could break right for the team in terms of development, with Scottie Barnes becoming an MVP candidate, Immanuel Quickley an All Star, and more, and the team still likely wouldn’t be a contender. There is much the team is likely still missing. Which is why the Raptors might want to be bad next year. 

And there’s an easy path to being bad. 

Jakob Poeltl has led the Raptors in on-off differential since rejoining the team two seasons ago in a trade. Without him, the bottom falls out of both the offense and the defense. He has more or less been the only big capable of defending pick and rolls, the only elite-efficiency finisher, the best rebounder, the best rim protector, and much more. Lose Poeltl, and the Raptors could lose a whole lot of games very quickly. Last season showed that in a hurry. 

Before you pin those losses on the Raptors missing Barnes (which was obviously a big factor!), the Raptors were actually much better with Poeltl on the court without Barnes than Barnes on the court without Poeltl. Poeltl is no star, and he’s not going to become one, but he has been an absolute prerequisite to any moderate success the Raptors have found since trading for him. The Raptors own their own first-round pick this upcoming year. Trading Poeltl could maximize that pick in a star-studded top of the draft. And at the same time, Poeltl’s skills are more or less replaceable. Not that Toronto found it easy to add a center for … years. But there are two players who have consistently impacted winning to this extent in Toronto for years. Scottie Barnes cannot be replaced, for obvious reasons. Which leaves trading Poeltl as the most realistic means to losing in 2024-25. 

Such a trade might involve a pick or two heading to Atlanta, either a protected future first (or Indiana’s still-owed first), or a few seconds, or maybe a swap down the road. But Toronto would get a very cheap and young center to replace Poeltl — who is clearly not presently as good and would let Toronto lose games this upcoming season. The Raptors loved Kobe Bufkin during the draft process before finding Gradey Dick fall into their laps. He would greatly boost the talent level on the team. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Hawks would find a center who could make plays in the space created by Trae Young far better than Clint Capela, while also upgrading on the defensive end. This could give their core a real shot at another playoff run, while also costing relatively little. 

Or Toronto could trade Poeltl for almost entirely a draft-based return. 

The Golden State Warriors are still trying to capitalize on Steph Curry’s prime, and Poeltl would fill a lot of holes on that team. Meanwhile, Andrew Wiggins hasn’t contributed to the team in a meaningful way since the championship, and he is very expensive. Toronto would have to receive, at minimum, two first-round picks in this deal. One for Poeltl and one to take on Wiggins’ salary. If the Raptors also found a buyer for Chris Boucher or Bruce Brown, the team could remain under the luxury tax or apron or whatever it’s called now. Who knows? Perhaps the Raptors could turn Wiggins into another homegrown star. It worked for RJ Barrett. But realistically, this deal would be for Toronto to draft hiiiiigh in 2025 and get a couple more first-round picks in the process. 

Path 2: The Financial Minutiae

The Oklahoma City Thunder spent many years being bad and drafting unbelievable players as a result. But that hasn’t been their only path to success. They have also used available cap space not to sign free agents, but to help other teams — for a price. The collection of picks, gathered here and there, one or two at a time, is truly astounding. 

The Raptors currently have very little cap space, but with so much money tied to Boucher and Brown, there are paths to changing the balance sheets. And that fact means the Raptors could manage to extract some value from other teams with less flexibility. Maybe. It would be easier if Toronto had not picked up Brown’s contract. Toronto already sold flexibility in its trade with the Sacramento Kings earlier this offseason. But there’s room for an encore.

I’m not a huge believer in this deal, but the general premise is that there are good young teams out there without the playing time for strong veterans. Toronto could add a vet, rehabilitate his value with playing time, and then flip him at the deadline for a pick. The Rockets would open up playing time for their many, many promising youngsters. Meanwhile they’d pay a little less money for their 2024-25 team. If Toronto could buy out Boucher, it wouldn’t trigger the apron as a result of this deal. Maybe Jeff Green isn’t the guy for this, but there’s a path to squeezing a pick out of Toronto’s available playing time, stats-friendly environment, and relative non-commitment to wins this season. This is just one example.

Path 3: The Upgrade

Otherwise known as “damn Deni Avdija was right there and available and holy hell would he have fit perfectly next to everyone else on the Raptors.” But, you know, that ship has sailed. There are other good players out there on bad teams. 

Let’s start with LaMelo Ball. He is exceptionally good, a walking paint touch, a much better shooter than the simple percentages show, and one of the best passers in the league. On a good team, given seriousness, I believe he would massively impact winning. He fits beautifully next to Barnes. And Quickley is such a great off-ball player that the two could co-exist very nicely. Ball is also enormous for a point guard, and a strong rebounder, so it could work on both ends. 

Obviously the Raptors would have to shell out multiple first-round picks. But the Charlotte Hornets have a new owner, and Brandon Miller was so good last year that he could be the new build-around if the Hornets decide the worst play-in team in history isn’t worth keeping. I could see them deciding to call it quits with Ball if the right offer came along. And this would give Toronto a huge amount of talent. Maybe not enough to contend for a championship, though. Perhaps the Raptors should swing for a single in this area, rather than a home run. Hear me out. 

No one really wants to pay Brandon Ingram, it looks like. So the Pelicans may want to trade him and cut their losses, opening up the playing time required for Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III. Ingram is very good, but those two fit better alongside Zion Williamson. Plus the Pelicans are missing a center, and Poeltl would solve that issue. His addition would help ameliorate the pain of losing Ingram. Meanwhile the Bulls have a ton of money going to veterans that they have no reason to want. Ingram is expiring. Chicago may as well let him get shots up, perhaps alongside Zach LaVine, before both contracts expire after the season so the team can finally build for the future. 

But the Raptors would get a chance to try a shooting center alongside Barnes. Poeltl is better, but Vucevic might match this Raptors offensive identity a little cleaner. Perhaps an upgrade? I’m not sold on this deal either, but marginal upgrades aren’t the easiest things to envision, sue me.

To that point, I’m not arguing for any of these trades, from any of the teams’ perspectives. But perhaps all should be considered as emphases on paths the Raptors could take. Sure, the Raptors’ rebuild is only half a year old, and you don’t want to rush things. But there’s a difference between rushing and helping. Toronto can pick a direction, help its chances to win or lose, and add more talent. Trades can help, even if the right one isn’t listed here. Rebuilds are like fire in that they need air to breathe, but too much can kill them. The Raptors can’t just sit on their laurels and expect the roster to grow into a contender as a result of a few years of mild pain. The right activity, large or small, can catalyze the process.

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