F1 title fight leads major storylines at the Dutch Grand Prix

As F1 comes back from the summer shutdown there are no shortage of storylines

42 points.

As Formula 1 returns from its summer shutdown for this week’s Dutch Grand Prix, just 42 points separate Red Bull from McLaren in the Constructors’ Championship standings. Buoyed by a fast race car and a pair of fast drivers, McLaren built off their strong finish to the 2023 campaign to put the rest of the F1 world on notice over the first half of the 2024 season.

But can they truly catch Max Verstappen, Sergio Pérez, and Red Bull?

Given the current form of the two teams, it certainly looks like they can. After all, McLaren has outscored every team — including Red Bull — over the eight races since the Miami Grand Prix, when Lando Norris broke through with his maiden F1 victory.

There is also reason to believe that McLaren could be even better down the stretch. Miami marked the first real upgrade package the team has rolled out this year, and in recent days Team Principal Andrea Stella noted that they will be bringing more upgrades as the season winds down. Of course, they need to work for McLaren to show even more improvement, but if they do ...

Still, the rest of the pack will not just sit idly by. Mercedes has their own claim to the title of “the hottest team in Formula 1,” given the fact they have won three of the last four Grands Prix, and were in line for a one-two finish at the Belgian Grand Prix until George Russell’s disqualification.

Which promoted Lewis Hamilton to the victory.

Over at Ferrari, they were within just 24 points of Red Bull following Charles Leclerc’s long-awaited win at the Monaco Grand Prix. While they have faded since then — witnessing McLaren overtake them for second in the Constructors’ Championship standings as Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz Jr. combined for just two podiums since Monaco — if they can get a handle of the SF-24, they could still be a presence down the stretch.

Then, of course, there is Red Bull.

Verstappen remains Verstappen, and the Dutch driver is in line for his fourth straight Drivers’ Championship as he currently holds a lead of 78 points over Lando Norris. But on the Constructors’ side of things, Red Bull is under some pressure. Perhaps this season can best be summed up by the results at Silverstone. Red Bull got so many strategy calls right with Verstappen as the conditions changed throughout that race, and yet he only finished second, to Hamilton.

This year even when they are perfect, it might not be enough for Red Bull.

With just ten races remaining, this Constructors’ fight could be one for the ages, and it all gets underway this weekend at the Dutch Grand Prix.

Here are some other major storylines to track this week.

What happens in the driver market?

Four seats. A handful of frontrunners along with countless options, and a whole lot of speculation remaining.

Such is the status of the F1 driver market as that game of musical chairs winds down. Only four spots remain for the 2025 season: A seat at Visa Cash App RB F1 Team, the seat Lewis Hamilton is vacating at Mercedes, a spot at Alpine, and a spot at Sauber alongside Nico Hülkenberg.

Will any news be announced ahead of this weekend’s Dutch Grand Prix? Will results over the next few races, including this weekend, influence a decision at VCARB?

Earlier this summer we made our predictions here at SB Nation for how the rest of the driver market will shake out. In brief, we believe Mercedes will pick Andrea Kimi Antonelli, the young phenom currently driving in F2. We believe Jack Doohan will get the nod at Alpine, while Valtteri Bottas gets to keep his current seat at Sauber. Over at VCARB, we gave the nod to Liam Lawson in what might be the toughest call to make regarding these last four seats.

We might start seeing if those predictions were right this week ...

The battle for sixth

The fight at the sharp end of the grid will be the battle that captures the attention of the F1 world over these next few months.

But that is not the only fight worth watching, as well as writing about.

A fascinating battle is shaping up between Visa Cash App RB F1 Team and Haas for sixth, and that fight has tightened in recent weeks. Thanks to this graphic from Formula1Points you can see how this race has tightened:

When the F1 tripleheader began mid-summer VCARB enjoyed a 28-7 advantage over Haas in the Constructors’ Championship standings, thanks to an eighth-place finish (and the corresponding four points from that result) from Daniel Ricciardo at the Canadian Grand Prix.

However, while both teams were shut out at the Spanish Grand Prix, a pair of P6 results from Nico Hülkenberg at both Red Bull Ring and Silverstone banked 16 massive points for Haas. While Yuki Tsunoda got VCARB on the board at the British Grand Prix with a tenth-place finish, and Ricciardo added two more points in Austria, those results saw Haas trim the margin to 31-27.

VCARB put some distance between the two over the last two races before the summer shutdown, as Tsunoda delivered a ninth-place result to bank two points in Hungary, and his tenth-place result at Spa added another critical point. As the teams come out of the shutdown the gap is now 34-27.

But Haas is determined to catch their rivals.

“Looking at where we are now, we are seven points behind P6 – RB – so we have to go for trying to get P6 in the championship,” said Haas Team Principal Ayao Komatso recently. “That’s our target for the rest of the season.

“Straight after shutdown, in Zandvoort, see if we can perform and get back to scoring points again. Budapest was tough and Spa was tough – we are looking into why we couldn’t perform in those two races. It’s too late to influence the development, because development for the rest of the season is done now. But just in terms of how we set the car up at the track, how we go about managing tyres, etc, any learning we can take from Budapest and Spa would be beneficial. So it’s really a continuous process, but our sporting target would be trying to fight for P6 in the championship.”

The fight at the front will capture the bulk of the headlines, but do not sleep on this battle for sixth.

Will the weather play a role?

Photo by Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Weather was a major factor last year at the Dutch Grand Prix, as the rain began in rainy conditions which prompted many drivers to duck in for intermediates. The rain eased during the middle of the race, but late showers saw a red flag come out after a Zhou Guanyu crash, stopping the race for around 45 minutes. Verstappen survived a slippery restart to claim yet another win, but the weather was a major factor.

Will it be again this year?

At the moment it looks as if the race will be dry, but wet conditions could be a feature on Saturday. According to this weather report, scattered showers are expected Saturday, during both FP3 as well as qualifying.

So that is something else to watch for this week.

Can Sauber get on the board?

The last time an F1 team was points-less at the break? That came back in 2021 when Haas reached the summer shutdown point of the year without either Nikita Mazepin or Mick Schumacher scoring a single point.

Unfortunately for Haas, they ended the year in the same fashion, as neither driver was able to crack the top ten at all that season.

That was 2021. Now? Sauber is facing that same situation. However, while both Mazepin and Schumacher were rookies that year, Sauber has two experienced drivers in Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Gunayu.

And still, not a single point to show for their efforts so far.

Their best result? A P11 from Zhou at the season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix. Since then, the season has been “challenging,” as outlined by Valtteri Bottas recently.

“It’s been a challenging year for us,” said Bottas to the official F1 channel. “We still haven’t scored a single point which wasn’t the target going into the season. We wanted to see an upwards trajectory from last year, and it hasn’t happened.

“We started the season with not that easy a car to set up, and even on the pure pace, we were not quite there. We’ve made some improvement since, but more like baby steps instead of big jumps, unlike some other teams around us.”

Bottas sounded pleased with his effort so far this season, noting “[b]ut yeah, with my performance, I’ve been happy, and my job for the remainder of the season remains to extract everything I can off the package every single weekend. That’s my job.”

However, there is one thing missing: A faster race car.

Short of that? Perhaps a “miracle” according to Bottas. “At the moment we still need kind of a miracle to happen to get into the top ten,” added Bottas.

Can they deliver that faster race car — or perhaps that miracle — this weekend?

The return of F1 Academy

Photo by Pauline Ballet - Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images

The end of the summer shutdown means that F1 cars will soon be back on track. But that is not the only return happening this week. F1 Academy, having last raced at the Spanish Grand Prix, is back in action at Zandvoort this week.

At the moment Alpine driver Abbi Pulling leads the Championship with 147 points, ahead of Doriane Pin and Chloe Chambers, who both have 81 points on the season. While Pin captured the first race of the season, Pulling then ripped off four straight victories to vault to the top of the Championship standings.

But it was Chambers who broke through with her maiden win in the second race in Barcelona last time out, a victory that goes into the record books as the first win for the MoneyGram Haas F1 Team.

As F1 roars back into action this week, do not miss any of the F1 Academy action. The first race is slated for Saturday, with the second race set for Sunday. F1 Academy qualifying takes place on Saturday.