Women's basketball gold medal odds and predictions for the 2024 Paris Olympics

The United States women’s basketball team has won gold at every Olympics since 1996. That’s seven straight victories for the country’s most dominant team, which should leave no surprise about how big it’s favored to win gold at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Team USA has -1400 odds at BetMGM to make it eight straight gold medals, which gives the team a better than 93% implied chance to win.

In other words, it’s not worth betting on anyone else, and it’s not worth betting on the U.S. either, because the payout would be so small.

However, for those who do want to throw some money at a potential upset, it’s a lot harder trying to decide who among the other teams in the field is the best bet.

Nine of the remaining 12 teams are top 10 in the last FIBA world rankings, and betting odds reflect just how little separation exists between them.

Australia, France, Belgium, Japan and Spain all have odds between 22-1 and 25-1, and China and Canada aren’t far behind at 33-1.

2024 Paris Olympics women’s basketball odds (BetMGM)

• USA (-1400)
• Australia (+2200)
• France (+2200)
• Belgium (+2500)
• Japan (+2500)
• Spain (+2500)
• China (+3300)
• Canada (+3300)
• Serbia (+8000)
• Nigeria (+12500)
• Germany (+15000)
• Puerto Rico (+50000)

Despite how close these teams are, the two that stand out above the rest for me are Spain and Belgium at 25-1 each.

Spain is a good bet because at -140 odds to win Group A, they have the second-best odds behind the U.S. to win any group. This is important because the top two teams from the group stage are seeded on opposite sides of the knockout stage bracket, which means Spain could potentially avoid the U.S. until the gold medal game.

Again, I wouldn’t pick them to win, but you get the drift.

Next, I like Belgium as a team that proved its ability to beat many of these teams on its way to gold in last year’s EuroBasket tournament, topping Serbia, France and Spain en route to the title.

Though Belgium has a tougher path out of the group phase, playing both the U.S. and the 2021 Olympic runner-up Japan, I suspect Belgium qualifies for the knockout stage as one of the last teams, which would allow the team to avoid the U.S. and Japan in the quarterfinals.