D'angelo Russell In Control - Contract Prediction

Regardless of the fan narrative, the team is likely to keep D’Lo if he wishes to return. If he leaves, they can’t replace his 40% three-point shooting and starting-grade point guard skills with the limited funds available through the mid-level exception or other exceptions. By this metric, the team is better with him than without him. And moreover, the team does not have the cap resources to find another $20M 3pt sharpshooter.

Because the team cannot replace him, I am one to think that the new coach, a former three-point specialist, will absolutely advocate for keeping him. The downside of losing him is too much, especially as a three-point floor spacer, but we should also not dismiss his point guard skills and ability to play with LeBron and Davis. Losing him would be a clear step backward in terms of talent and three-point contribution. And let’s be honest, no draftee, with the name of James or otherwise, is going to be relevant until 2026, especially as a three-point contributor.

An interesting note is that D’Lo has become the exact statistical copy of Buddy Hield, whom we've chased for years, and the exact three-point shooting specialist we've ached to find. To his credit, he adds starting point guard skills and is a better player than Hield.

D'Angelo (2023-24 season):

Age: 27

MPG: 32.7 min

GP: 76 games

FGA: 14.2 <- Relatively Low Usage

3Pt Attempts: 7.2

3Pt %: 41.5% <- #10 among starting guards

Two-Point Field Goal Percentage (2P%): 49.7%

Free Throw Percentage (FT%): 82.8%

Total Rebounds (TRB): 3.1

Assists (AST): 6.3

Steals (STL): 0.9

Turnovers (TOV): 2.1 <- Low

Personal Fouls (PF): 2.1 <- Low

Points Per Game (PTS): 18

Offensive (+/-): +1.8

Defensive (+/-): (-.8)

Nothing amazing. Nothing special. Some stats are probably a bit low due to playing with Lebron and Davis, but at the same time, you can probably say, that this is accurate for his position and contribution for a team with championship aspirations. But most importantly, it shows that he is a $18m starting guard. The drop off to a vet minimum or MLE guy would be significant, especially in 3pt shooting.

Eager fans won’t let us forget that he tends to have 1-2 bad games in every playoff series, and near-elite level defense (or better) disrupts his performance. They are quick to point out that his defense is below average.

Older fans will remember that Byron Scott was scapegoated because of Russell's immaturity and poor rookie ascension, and some will still hold a grudge on Nick Young’s behalf.

Savvy Lakers followers like myself will remember that when he was traded, Magic Johnson said, "[D’Lo] has the talent to be an All-Star...what I needed was a leader. I needed somebody also that can make the other players better, and also that players want to play with." These same followers will remember that D’Lo was dumped to make space for an upcoming Paul George quest, and eventually a LeBron acquisition.

Since his first disastrous stint with the Lakers, D'Angelo Russell has been on a whirlwind tour chasing money, learning how to match his talent, and most importantly, growing up. In Brooklyn, he was a sixth man and eventually a one-time All-Star. He was overpaid by Golden State to be used as a future trade piece to the Timberwolves. He was a lackluster addition in Minnesota that wasn’t extended, and he’s now a reclamation project back in LA.

In his second stint in LA, it seems that he has grown, matured, and settled into the player that he is: a talented but defensively challenged starting-level combo guard. His current salary is a perfect match for his talent. He is an $18-20M player and 3pt shooter who can help all 30 teams in the league.

In this salary range, it inherently suggests that he has a skill imbalance that stops him from being a true All-Star and max-salary player. In his case, it’s poor defense, good but not stellar 20 points-per-game ability, a stigma of having the yips in the postseason, and rumors that while he was "liked," he has always been a lone-wolf type and not universally loved in the locker room.

DLo is currently in a contract situation where he holds the reins, with a player option that allows him to determine whether he remains in LA or seeks opportunities elsewhere. Recently, he stated, "My circumstances were deliberately orchestrated to grant me leverage and control over my future." He expressed a desire to remain in LA long-term due to his affinity for the team, he emphasized the newfound importance of stability, particularly now that he has a child and wishes to establish roots rather than relocate every couple of years. Additionally, he remarked, "I think everyone on this team likes each other."

Does he stay or go?

I expect he stays. First, only six teams can absorb him into cap space as a free agent, and none are particularly appealing. Second, if you cue off his "by orchestration" statement, it means he’s acutely aware of his situation and wants to control it; presumably to avoid being a trade throw-in, put down roots, and have some stability. D’Lo is a very smart person and his 4 residence changes have given him an acute understanding of the "business of basketball."

After chasing the paycheck, he realizes that at 28, this is what it is for him. He’s not going to get significantly better, but he’s not going to regress either. Since he’s a non-attacking guard, he has little threat of getting injured and risking a future payday.

I believe he opts out and takes a 1+1 deal. Primarily because this gives him two seasons of no-trade control and aligns with LeBron. Ultimately, he has "control over [his] future".

Also, I am not sure if DLo wants to go back to being the villain of LA and leave for a second time. While he claims to ignore the media, he seems to be aware of public perception and the LA Lakers Spotlight.

Additionally, the new coach is an ex-three-point shooter, and there is no way you can convince me that Reddick signs off on losing the team’s best three-point shooter, one who shoots 40%. This is a step backwards in spacing and losing a starting grade PG with 2 years of Lebron and Davis experience is setting him up to fail.

Sorry, kiddies and trade fanatics, this precludes almost any trade unless he’s simply going to chase the Brinks truck and take a four or five-year deal with $100M guaranteed, just for the sake of money. However, he’s already made $155M, and his next 3-5 years are relatively guaranteed at $20M, no matter what he does. He is clearly putting emphasis on stability and a home.

DLo’s been in LA for 2 years, and adding two more might seem like his best option, with two years of no-trade clauses and "player-controlled leverage."

Taking a trade and long-term deal would make him a trade candidate for the life of his entire extension. Given his level of talent, he will always be in the media as a trade token. If he takes the wrong path, he’s going to be traded every 2-3 seasons, risking being in a bad situation or on a bad team.

My personal take is the team will keep him and maintain the team for the start of regular season. If they do make a trade, it will be with the intention of keeping D’Lo, as it would be best if they added a guy like Murray and kept D’Lo.

You cannot convince me that DLo is going to Opt-In just to take $18M and be a trade chip. As such, I expect him to choose the option that grants him the most control and re-sign for 1 year @ $20M with a 1-year player option (which he expects to take).