Charles Schwab Challenge: Odds, predictions, value picks, for next PGA Tour event

The PGA Tour returns to Texas, where Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth will host the Charles Schwab Challenge.

After a thrilling PGA Championship that saw Xander Schauffele claim his first major title, the PGA Tour returns to the Lone Star State for the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Scottie Scheffler is in line to play, despite having an arraignment scheduled in Louisville court on Tuesday at 9 a.m. ET.

Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, and Max Homa will tee it up at Colonial Country Club as well.

This golf course has hosted a PGA Tour event every year since 1946, making it the longest-running non-major event held at the same venue. It has produced many noteworthy winners, including Phil Mickelson, Jordan Spieth, Ben Crenshaw, and Jack Nicklaus.

But nobody won at Colonial more than Ben Hogan, who did so five times throughout his career. Hence, this course is known as “Hogan’s Alley,” a moniker given to Riviera in Los Angeles for Hogan’s success there, too.

Charles Schwab Challenge Odds:

Here are the current odds for the Charles Schwab Challenge:

• Scottie Scheffler +280
• Collin Morikawa +1400
• Jordan Spieth +1800
• Max Homa +2000
• Tony Finau +3000
• Sungjae Im +3500
• Si Woo Kim +3500
• Min Woo Lee +3500
• Adam Scott +3500
• Brian Harman +4000
• Tom Hoge +4500
• Sepp Straka +4500
• Keith Mitchell +4500
• Denny McCarthy +4500
• Christian Bezuidenhout +4500

Photo by Aric Becker/Getty Images

Charles Schwab Challenge Predictions

A favorite among numerous PGA Tour pros, Colonial Country Club has produced two thrilling finishes over the past two years. In 2022, Sam Burns defeated Scottie Scheffler in a playoff. Then, last year, Emiliano Grillo almost gave it away on the 72nd hole before defeating Adam Schenk on the second extra hole.

Scheffler also finished in a tie for third in 2023, one stroke out of the playoff. A bogey on the par-3 16th did him in.

Nevertheless, this par-70 will play at 7,289 yards this week and serve as a stern challenge for the field. Nobody finished better than 9-under par over the last two years here. Whoever can drive it long and straight tends to do well on this golf course.

Min Woo Lee relies on length to contend

One of the flashiest players in the game, Min Woo Lee, the 25-year-old from Perth, Australia, ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee and second in total driving. He hits the ball a mile and does so with accuracy, too.

That will help him contend at Colonial, where DraftKings lists him at +360 to finish within the top 10.

Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Lee arrives in Fort Worth after tying for 26th at the PGA Championship. Not a great finish, per se, but not horrible either. He carded three under-par rounds over the final three days after opening with a 1-over 72 on Thursday. Lee also ranked 16th at Valhalla in strokes gained: putting, a part of his game that he has struggled with.

Watch out for Lee at Colonial if he can keep the putter rolling this week.

Jordan Spieth rebounds in home state

Despite missing the cut at Colonial a year ago, Jordan Spieth will contend this week for the first time in months.

He won this event in 2016 and recorded two runner-up finishes in 2017 and 2021. Spieth has four other top-10 finishes on top of that.

Spieth loves this course, which makes last year’s missed cut a head-scratcher. But his typically otherworldly short game completely abandoned him, which led to a pair of 2-over 72s. He missed the cut by three shots.

Photo by Matthew Maxey/Getty Images

This year, his play around the greens has not been his best, but he still ranks above the tour average in strokes gained around the green. But we like Spieth to contend this week because he ranks 17th on tour in total driving.

DraftKings lists Spieth at +220 to finish in the top 10.

Longshot Contender

After playing well at Augusta National and making the cut at Valhalla, Nicolai Højgaard, who starred for the European Ryder Cup team last fall, arrives at Colonial ranking fifth in total driving.

He has the ability to drive the ball beautifully, combining both length and accuracy to find an abundance of fairways. But his short game and putter have sorely let him down this season, a year in which his only top 10 is a runner-up finish at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Still, given Højgaard’s talent, a top 10 price at +700 is worth the longshot for the Danish bomber.

Longshot Champion

At +7500 to win, Adam Schenk, who came close to winning last year, experiences a full circle moment at Colonial. His game suits Colonial well, as Schenk is solid off the tee and on the greens. The former Purdue Boilermaker also makes plenty of birdies, recording 221 so far this season—good for fourth on the PGA Tour.

Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

Yet, he missed the cut at last week’s PGA Championship. But Schenk has had a solid season to date. Before missing the weekend by a stroke at Valhalla, Schenk had recorded three top 20 finishes dating back to April 1st. That includes a tie for 12th at Augusta National.

Charles Schwab Challenge Winner

This should come as no surprise to anyone, but Scottie Scheffler will return to the winner’s circle this week at Colonial.

Odds makers list Scheffler at +280 to win, a preposterous price rarely seen in golf. But given Scheffler’s history on this course, plus the weak field compared to last week’s PGA Championship, the value makes sense.

Scheffler should not have the outside distractions that resulted from his Friday morning arrest, and he will have his caddy, Ted Scott, on the bag for all four rounds. Last week at Valhalla, Scott missed Saturday’s third round to attend his daughter’s high school graduation, and Scheffler struggled with a 2-over 73. The reigning Masters champion admitted to not feeling right, considering the events from the day before, but he still managed to tie for eighth.

Nonetheless, Scheffler bounces back in a big way this week in his home state.

For all other sports betting content, check out SB Nation’s DraftKings site.

Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.