Should the Warriors draft Bronny James?

A question all 30 teams are asking.

Perhaps I’m just feeling sentimental while reading Hanif Abdurraqib’s new book There’s Always This Year (which I cannot recommend strongly enough), which chronicles, among other things, the last few decades in Ohio basketball. But it’s genuinely hard for me to believe that’s it’s been 21 years since the Sports Illustrated-cover appearing, heir apparent to the Michael Jordan throne, once-in-a-generation kid, LeBron James, entered the draft. In so many ways, I remember it like it was yesterday, even though it was well over half my lifetime ago.

The Golden State Warriors never had more than a wish or a prayer at James, carrying just a 0.7% chance of landing the top pick in 2003, and instead settling in at No. 11, where they selected Mickaël Piétrus.

And now, more than two decades after the most hyped prospect in NBA history heard his name announced by David Stern, the Warriors will finally get their chance to draft LeBron James. It’s just that this one has a “Jr.” attached to the end of his name.

Yes, as you surely know by now, the all-time scoring leader’s eldest son, who goes by Bronny James, is entering the 2024 NBA Draft after one year at USC. That Bronny is even in this position is something worth celebrating, as he’s only nine months removed from suffering cardiac arrest during a practice.

While James will be the most notable name in the draft, he certainly won’t be the most notable prospect. Projected by many to be a lottery pick prior to his health concerns and freshman season, James didn’t have the type of season typically attached to a high-profile prospect. He primarily came off the bench for the Trojans, averaging just 19.3 minutes per game. While he showed plenty of strengths, his overall numbers were fairly poor: 4.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game, while shooting just 26.7% from three-point range. Were he not carrying his pre-college pedigree and historic surname, he would almost surely return to campus for his sophomore season to try and raise his draft stock.

Instead, the 6’4 combo guard is (potentially) headed to the NBA. And perhaps he’ll end up bypassing the draft altogether: the 19-year old is not listed on Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo’s mock draft at ESPN, or on Kevin O’Connor’s at The Ringer. Givony doesn’t even have Bronny listed in his ranking of the top 100 prospects in the draft.

That isn’t to say that Bronny will get passed over and enter undrafted free agency. There are plenty of reasons beyond standard prospect performance that could lead a team to draft him — we’ll get to those in a moment. And there’s still the combine and individual workouts where he will attempt to prove that he’s more like the prospect that entered USC than the prospect that exited. After all, Brandin Podziemski wasn’t on anyone’s radar as a first-round pick when the 2022-23 NCAA season concluded. So while Bronny doesn’t currently look like a talent worthy of a draft pick, he could look the part of a second-round selection — or even a first-rounder — in a few weeks’ time.

All that said, Bronny can still pull out of the draft and return to college. After working out for teams and getting a sense of what opportunities await him, he’ll make a final decision about his immediate future.

Which brings us to the question: should the Warriors draft him? Let’s explore the three primary factors.

Adding LeBron James this offseason

While unfair to Bronny, the biggest reason teams have interest in him really doesn’t have to do with his talent. It has to do with an oft-repeated quote by the elder James, who once stated that he will play on the same NBA team as his son before he retires.

That quote has perhaps been misinterpreted a bit, and taken to mean that drafting Bronny means immediately signing LeBron. That’s pretty unlikely, unless you’re the Los Angeles Lakers — who have already signaled a willingness to draft Bronny as they fight to keep LeBron in purple and gold.

But it is something to consider, as LeBron holds a player option this summer, meaning he can enter free agency should he choose to. Would he want to play for the Warriors? I would assume there’s at least a shred of curiosity there, given his close friendship with Draymond Green, his open admiration for Steph Curry, and his great respect for Steve Kerr (though, it’s worth noting, the Warriors were informed that James had no interest in leaving the Lakers when they inquired about a trade in February).

Golden State, however, does not have the cap space — or a feasible means of creating the cap space — to sign LeBron, barring his willingness to take a monumental pay cut, which we can all but rule out. And even if his tune has changed, and he wants out of Hollywood, a trade would be very hard to maneuver.

It’s fun to dream of the Warriors employing two players with the name “James” on the back of their jerseys next year. But it’s not realistic.

Adding LeBron James in future seasons

What’s often missed in LeBron’s quote about playing Bronny, is the timeline: the verbatim quote is, “My last year will be played with my son,” adding that, “Wherever Bronny is at, that’s where I’ll be. I would do whatever it takes to play with my son for one year.”

LeBron has hinted at an upcoming retirement, even openly flirting with the idea last offseason. But even though he’ll be entering his age-40 season next year, he’s still a player who averaged a staggering 25.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 8.3 assists per game this year, and will likely make one of the All-NBA teams. He has many more seasons left in the tank if he wants to keep playing, and until he makes an actual declaration, I’m inclined to assume that any allusions to retirement are bits of theatrics and/or wearing his decision-making on his sleeve.

But at some point, that final year will come. And in all likelihood, it will come sooner rather than later.

I said in the prior section that LeBron isn’t going to take reject his $51.4 million player option just to sign a bargain contract with the Warriors — or anyone else — this summer. But would he do exactly that before his final season? I genuinely think he would. If the Warriors can stash Alen Smailagić for a few years, they can definitely draft Bronny to gear up for one final 2026-27 run with Curry and LeBron paired up at long last.

Adding a cheap prospect

The Warriors will spend a lot of money next season, in salary and likely in tax payments. But they’ve also been open about wanting to shed some of the behemoth payments that they’ve been making over the last decade.

There are obvious ways to change the books, such as letting Klay Thompson walk, not picking up Chris Paul’s fully non-guaranteed $30 million deal for next year, and exploring an Andrew Wiggins trade. But there are also smaller ways — primarily loading up the roster with non-first round rookie contracts, which pay less than veteran minimum deals. These types of savings may be relatively minimal on the surface, but for a team like the Warriors they are, at worst, an eight-figure tax penalty difference, and at best, the difference between staying under the tax line and going above it.

It’s why the Warriors traded into the second round last year and gave Trayce Jackson-Davis a guaranteed deal (a year after giving Ryan Rollins one). It’s why they didn’t sign veteran camp favorite Rudy Gay, traded Cory Joseph at the deadline, and filled out the roster with Lester Quiñones, Gui Santos, and Usman Garuba.

If the Warriors draft Bronny in the second round, or sign him as an undrafted free agent, it will cost less than if they use that roster spot on a veteran. And every dollar counts.

Bronny also fits the mold that Kerr so often covets. He has a sublime feel for the game and a high basketball IQ, traits that aren’t surprising for a player who grew up around the NBA, and with one of the smartest players in league history for a father (and, it’s worth noting, the Warriors have a roster full of sons of NBA players, a strategy that has worked quite well for them). He has strong defensive instincts, limits mistakes well, and plays a selfless brand of basketball. Despite the jarring numbers, he has fairly gorgeous shooting mechanics that the Warriors could hope would yield better results after hundreds of hours in the gym with Curry (and potentially Thompson). There are the bones of an impact role player there, with an anonymous GM recently telling O’Connor that, “He’d be a first-rounder if he had shot well.”

Adding Bronny this year would be, essentially, a domestic draft-and-stash. But given the short term financial impact, and the potential for a longer-term LeBron impact, you could understand if the Warriors decide it’s the perfect use of a 14th roster spot.